This article has been submitted by baseball enthusiast and handsome devil Erik Arnold.
A disclaimer: I have never laid a futures wager in my life.
Like many of you, I’ve cashed my fair share of Pro-Line tickets and even tested the waters with a few bucks at an online book; however, I’ve never had the patience to lay a futures bet and wait 6 months for it to turn out. Nonetheless, here’s my attempt to handicap every team’s odds to win the 2008 MLB World Series.
You can check out all of the real odds here, though they are temporarily down as the site adjusts for the two looming trades (Bedard and Santana).
Good Value
Chicago Cubs (15 – 1): Are they cursed? Probably. However, they still have tons of talent and look to be one of the best teams in the NL. Rumours were swirling about a potential acquisition of Erik Bedard, but recent news out of Seattle crushes those chances. Nonetheless, they have great offensive depth and a good enough 1-2-3 in their rotation to handle a short playoff series. Detroit Tigers (8.75 – 1): Pretty nice odds for a team with such an imposing line-up and two big new arrivals. The acquisition of Cabrera was HUGE and Dontrelle Willis will fit nicely as a 4th starter. Still some question marks though: Sheffield and Magglio need to stay healthy and a new “Guitar Hero” just came out this offseason which presents obvious hazards for Joel Zumaya’s health. See this link for details.Honorable Mention: NY Mets (9.3 – 1) – Best of the NL: Now that they *apparently* have Santana, WATCH OUT! Note: The odds will probably change soon to reflect this deal.
Poor Value
New York Yankees (5.25 – 1): As you might have expected, the Bronx Bastards are horribly overrated. These are pretty terrible odds for a team with half a rotation and aging veterans at multiple positions. The big spring training battle will be between Wilson Betemit and Shelly Duncan at first Base – enough said. These are not your daddy’s Yankees and I predict a disappointing year.
Boston Red Sox (5.05 – 1): Shockingly similar odds to the Yank. 5-1 seems fair for the defending champs. Still, I don`t see much value here as repeating, for whatever reason, is just hard to do. My hatred for the Sox has been well documented. I`ve always hated them more than the Yankees: Manny Ramirez, JD Drew, Josh Beckett… how can you NOT hate this team? Anyhow, 5-1 odds over a 162 game season and 3 playoff rounds is hardly a nice payoff. Sox make the playoffs, but go no further.
Honourable Mention: KC Royals (160 – 1) – At 1000-1 I’m listening… but this team still sucks.
The Hometown Odds
Toronto Blue Jays (25-1): Well, pretty decent payoff here if you have faith in our Blue Birds… but let’s be realistic. It’s going to be a battle to get out of the division, let alone make a serious push for the World Series. There is certainly more danger in the AL East than opportunity. I honestly think that even the Tampa Bay (devil) Rays will give the Jays trouble as they’ve made great improvements in a short period of time. But…. have faith Jays Nation! Our time will come!
MY PICK!
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (10.25 – 1) and here’s why:
-Solid Rotation #1-4: Lackey, Escobar, Garland, Weaver, then a bunch of capable guys fighting for the last spot, including Santana and Saunders.
-Best Bullpen in the AL – K-Rod, Speier, Shields = game, set, match.
-Improved Line-up – The addition of Hunter, contributions from Vladdy, and the progression of young position players should be enough to power the offense.
-The AL West is a terrible division and the Angels have tons of depth at every position in the event of injuries, so I really don’t see much risk that they don’t make the post-season. The Mariners are a legitimate team now, particularly with the *apparent* acquisition of Erik Bedard, but I think the Angels are more than capable of handling the AL West with ease. I’m not convinced that Seattle is ready to compete… yet.
-Art Moreno is a dream owner – after arriving in LA he immediately cut food, beer and ticket prices. Since then, he’s shown a willingness to spend money on top-shelf players and is always willing to loosen the purse strings at the trade deadline. Expect the Angels to acquire another piece of the puzzle if they’re battling for the playoffs at the deadline.
-I’ve always respected Mike Sciosia as a manager and coaching is the kind of intangible that proves to be pretty important during the course of the season.
The bet: $10 on LAA to win 2008 World Series (+1025) – to win $102.50!
This article has been submitted by baseball enthusiast and handsome devil Erik Arnold.
What??? Jays at 25:1 and you’re not biting? Ha ha, can’t really blame you.
If the Mets odds don’t change you have to like them as a great value bet. They’ll likely have an easy path to the playoffs (Philly the only divisional competition) and they now have a top-heavy rotation that is great for a short series. Throw in ALOT of power and a willingness to move prospects at the deadline and they have a good squad. On the other hand, they’re from the NL so I’m not laying any money down on them.
Angels are also a solid pick, and the owner HAS to have some good karma coming his way eventually for being a sick owner (for the record, Mark Cuban did all that except lower prices, hence the choke job).
I’ll have to see all the odds when updated, but right now LA and NYM are solid choices, good work E.
The Mets better hope the Jays don’t make it to the WS since we are notorious Johan killers
It hate futures bets. (I personally think they’re a waste of money since you can get future WS odds right before the playoffs start). You invest your money for a whole season for the “chance” to potentially win a large return. Good thing you’re only throwing some change on it.
Just curious, what % of your bankroll is that? Probably less than 1, right.
I hate** sorry for the typo.
You’re right show-time, I’m really only throwing some change on the prop anyways. If I wager anything, it’s 5 bucks here or there, so 10 is minimal.
I do need to correct you on one thing… the odds you’d get on a futures bet before the post season will not be nearly as big because they have obviously been adjusted for only the teams that actually made the playoffs.
Anyways, if you pick a team that you’re confident will make the playoffs and has a good enough team to make a run then throwing a few bucks at 10-1 isn’t too bad. Plus, it gives you another team to cheer for during the year.
Yea, that’s true, I just don’t have the patience to wait out a whole year with money tied up. Do you just bet on Pinny? Shop around a bit, 5dimes and thegreek have slightly better odds than pinny for futures. It’s good we’re Canadians cuz we have the ability to use all the books.
I use Pinny. I don’t mess around with bonuses too much because there are always huge rollover requirements. Pinny doesn’t offer many bonuses, but time and time again they prove to have the absolute best value and the earliest lines. I’ve also used Bowmans (now bet365) and Greek and was pretty happy with both.
Bet365 has had a major face lift. I went on it the other day and it’s totally changed!