With the Toronto Blue Jays opening spring training today (1 PM vs. Detroit), we thought it would be a good time to start our spring training coverage here at The ODC. Today you get a double dose of Blue Jay preview, and this is the second piece, submitted by Jackie ‘Robinson’ Forsayeth.
There comes a time in every young ballplayer’s career when they are given the chance to prove that they have to ability to play in the show. Spring Training is the most important time for these players and separates the worthy from the unworthy. Fans love to get excited about the next great team hero and hate to learn that their top pick is a bust. Fans will even travel to bush league stadiums throughout Florida and Arizona to see if they may be able to get a glimpse of the next A-Rod or Roger Clemens. Fans will proclaim for weeks after a good performance that so-and-so is the real deal or so-and-so has the best live-arm since Nolan Ryan. Of course, most of these don’t work out (see: Gabe Gross), because few are lucky enough to be called all-star, or dare I say Hall of Famer, in their career. For all of these reasons, true baseball fans know that next to the World Series, Spring Training is the most wonderful time of the year.
I am going to start off Spring Training by previewing my heart and soul, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have always had trouble with injuries and made some splashes in the offseason that could slightly change the outlook for 2008. The have a few positions that are up for grabs and a few that are locked up for years to come. I will do a position-by position analysis of the ballclub and finish with the top prospects to watch this year.
Catcher
This will definitely be a catcher-by-committee scenario in Toronto. The job is Gregg Zaun’s to lose but he will likely split games with Rod Barajas throughout the season. Look for youngsters Curtis Thigpen and Robinson Diaz to make some splashes in Spring Training and force Zaun and Barajas to pull up their jock straps a bit. Veteran Sal Fasano was also invited to camp but I think he is unlikely to make the team. Catcher really is up for grabs and if Thigpen plays well in training then he could get the nod.
Outlook: Zaun will start opening day platooning with Barajas as the season goes on. If an injury occurs look for Thigpen to make the most of it and push to be the everyday starter by April. Diaz is still a year or two away but many feel that he is the catcher of the future, not Thigpen.
First Base
Lyle Overbay has this position locked up. His defense and gap-hitting ability makes him a key to the Jays’ lineup. Injuries made him struggle at times last year, so look for Matt Stairs and Thigpen to fill in on occasion
Outlook: Overbay
Second Base
Aaron Hill finally has a position that he should stay at for the entire year. He has proven that he can do it with the glove and bat playing second base. Newly acquired Marco Scutaro will play on occasion to give Hill some rest.
Outlook: Hill
Third Base
The hot corner will be filled by oft-injured Scott Rolen. Coming over for Troy Glaus, there is not much of a change in glove or bat. His intangibles are seemingly better than Glaus’ and he has experience playing with Eckstein in the World Series. If Rolen goes down look for Scutaro to fill in as the effective utility player that he is.
Outlook: Rolen
Shortstop
Eckstein will likely play the bulk of the games at short. He gives the Jays a lead-off presence that they have been lacking for years. Johnny Mac will play when Halladay pitches as his personal shortstop but don’t look for much more than that out of him.
Outlook: Eckstein 75%, McDonald 25%
Left Field
This logjam has been effectively described in Blake’s article but I will summarize here. Reed Johnson needs to prove that he can still play in the MLB during Spring Training. I don’t think that will happen and I believe that Matt Stairs will start Opening Day. Look out for fan favorite Shannon Stewart to play a lot of games and maybe start by the end of Spring. He is a huge upgrade over Stairs in the field and he can still swing for somewhere in the 7-9 hole. Adam Lind is also somewhere is the mix and has to prove he can be an everyday starter over spring training. I believe Johnson is on his way out of Toronto. 19 year-old and consensus top-10 MLB prospect Travis Snider will play in Spring Training but is not quite ready for the show. Get excited about him though folks.
Outlook: Stairs 40%, Stewart 40%, Lind 15%, Johnson 5%
Centre Field
Vernon Wells will come back from his poor ‘07 campaign. ‘Nuff said.
Outlook: Wells
Right Field
Alex Rios is apparently stronger than last year and swinging better. Don’t even try, young guns.
Outlook: Rios
Designated Hitter
Frank Thomas turned it on in the last half of ’07, finishing with team highs in HR and RBI. He will start most games but needs a rest because he is 40 years old and weighs 275 pounds. Stairs, and maybe Lind, will likely get some looks at DH as well.
Outlook: Thomas 75%, Stairs 25%
#1 Starter
Halladay will make another run at the Cy Young while Jays fans hope he can stay healthy.
Outlook: Halladay
#2 Starter
The Brian McCabe of the Jays better start playing well or Jays fans will start hating him even more. There is no doubt that Burnett has sick stuff and shows it a lot of the time (he had a good finish last year). The problem is that he has some character issues. I strongly believe that he holds the key to the Jays season. If he can pitch like everyone knows he can and become one of the best #2s in baseball, the Jays will have a terrific tandem and be nearly impossible to beat in 65 out of the 162 games. Once again Jays fans, hope for no injuries.
Outlook: Burnett PLEASE
#3 Starter
It seems as though Dustin McGowan has been the Jays top prospect coming into spring training the last 5 years. He is finally no longer a prospect because he has solidified himself as a decent #3 starter in baseball. He showcased his great stuff in 2007, getting 12 wins (second on the team behind Halladay) and posting a reasonable 4.08 ERA.
Outlook: McGowan
#4 Starter
Shawn Marcum proved he can pitch is this league last year. He started off great but had a bit of a collapse for the second half of the season. Hopefully he will play well and stick in this role for the entire season. Jesse Litsch and Casey Janssen could compete for this but one of them will end up in the 5th spot.
Outlook Marcum
#5 Starter
Three players have a shot at this spot for the opening rotation. It will be a very interesting duel to keep track of throughout the spring. It is between Litsch, Janssen, and Gustavo Chacin. I believe it is Litsch’s right now after his solid performance last year, but many of the Blue Jays’ brass thinks that Janssen is better (but Jesse reportedly has Gibbons on his side). Chacin had a good couple of years and is returning from injury. If he can return to form the job could be his for the taking. Janssen was nearly flawless in the bullpen and I would hate to see him move from there. Even if he is better than Litsch as a starter and can win one or two more games, he will be more valuable out of the pen, leading to more victories. Either way, the 5th spot will not win many games.
Outlook: I like Litsch to get it because the gap between Janssen and Litsch in the pen is much greater than the gap between Janssen and Litsch as the 5th starter. Chacin I don’t think will compete unless he is completely healthy. I’m looking for some comments on who you guys think will fill out the rotation.
Bullpen
With BJ Ryan back and healthy the Jays will improve their already solid pen from last year. Ryan as the closer will allow Jeremy Accardo to move into a more comfortable setup role and leave solid righties Janssen and Frasor and lefties Tallet and Downs to play middle relief. If Ryan is not healthy, Janssen will move back into the setup position with Accardo closing. Not a bad plan B. The big question mark is Brandon League. He has a live arm but seems to only have one pitch. If he can finally come into his own and help out the pen, rather than hurt it, I strongly believe that the Jays have the best bullpen in the AL.
Top Prospects to Watch this Spring
1. Travis Snider- A glimpse into the future of the best OF in baseball, Wells, Rios, Snider.
2. Adam Lind – see if he is good enough to be an everyday left fielder or takeover as DH for Thomas next year.
3. Curtis Thigpen – can he be the backstop after Zaun or now?
4. Jesse Litsch – is he a rotation guy?
5. David Purcey – young arm who could be the best pitcher in the Jays’ system. Will likely get a few innings with injuries and maybe some starts.
6. Ricky Romero- may not play this spring but has potential. I personally like to forget about Ricky Romero because we picked him 6th overall when everyone other than JP thought we should have taken a shortstop named Troy Tulowitzki.
Opening Day Lineup
1. Eckstein
2. Hill
3. Rios
4. Thomas
5. Wells
6. Rolen
7. Stairs
8. Overbay
9. Zaun
Season Outlook
I don’t think that the Jays improved enough to make the playoffs. Right now I see them finishing a familiar 3rd in the AL East and 7th in the AL behind Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, and Seattle. However, if Wells returns to 2006 form, if Burnett steps up, if Eckstein and Rolen are productive, and if Halladay and Ryan stay healthy, they will compete for the Wildcard and the division. That is a lot of ifs but as a true Blue Jays fan, I am always hoping to be at the Rogers Centre in October.
Liked your analysis Jack, though I have major beef with your projected lineup. For Hill to hit 2nd, he’d have to have a good spring coupled with Wells having a bad one, because I think Rios-Wells makes more sense 2-3 if both are hitting well. Thomas is obviously a lock at 4, but that’s bout it. Outside of LF and the #5 spot in the rotation, the batting order is definitely the biggest question mark. I think a lot will depend on who gets the LF job (Stewart would be #1, Johnson #1 or #9, Stairs #7 or #8).
My bet is that Overbay and Stairs get a shot in the 2-hole before anyone else. It is just more practical to have a lefty at the plate with a runner on 1st to use that hole on the right side. I also think Hill is a better fit in the 9th spot such that Eckstein can make more productive outs moving him over and around (NL-style) instead of non-productive outs (which he will make a TON of anyways). Hill also ground into too many double-plays and batting him 9th reduces the impact of that.
As for the 5th spot in the rotation, it really should go to Janssen. Litsch still doesn’t have a strikeout pitch and I don’t think he can sustain his ground ball rate on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th go around with major league hitters. Once hitters start making some line drives out of his pitches we’re in trouble. Unfortunately, Janssen isn’t any more dominant, but has better stuff in general. I really think the 5th spot in our rotation is going to be a real trouble maker this year for the Jays.
Also forgot to mention that the lineup above is troublesome too because it puts our only two lefties together. I can all but guarantee that Gibby finds a way to separate Obay and Stairs if they’re both in the lineup.
For the #5 role—with Litsch looking shaky today and Purcey impressing last fall and so far in camp, I wonder how far fetched it is to pencil Purcey in as the emergency #5. If Litsch takes the job, Janssen moves to the ‘pen, meaning that we would have to at least go to a AAA player temporarily while Janssen’s arm was stretched out. Could be Purcey, he’s a much-needed lefty. Just saying.
This one’s a little out there, too, but if Gibby is set on Janssen in the bullpen and/or nobody plays well enough for the job, what about Freddy Garcia? He’s out there, still. Just spinning the wheels here.
There are enough guys in house that can probably do the job, I don’t doubt that. It will probably be a matter of plugging our noses and throwing out whoever rises above the rest. If our top three play to potential (DOC-AJ-DUSTY) we really don’t need a whole lot from Marcum and whoever fills the #5. We’re really only talking about a 4.25-4.50 10 win guy.
As for Purcey, let’s wait until he gets a legit shot. Jays fans saw what yanking McGowan back and forth did to stunt his growth until he finally got a “real” shot.
And again, this is still week 1 of Spring Training so pretty much every single pitcher in Major League Baseball is due for one rough outing between now and April.
I agree with all of that, E. But as I’m sure you can understand, I’m just a little excited that spring training is here and I want the best possible team out there. Janssen is my man for that job.