The On Deck Circle

This article has been submitted by Jack Forsayeth.

The NL West will prove to be the most interesting division in 2008 because there are four teams that could legitimately win the division or secure the Wild Card and the fifth has some of the best young pitchers in the league. It will, however, be tough for two teams to make it because of the level of competition. As I write this I have no idea on my final order so I am going to start from the bottom and leave everyone on the edge of their seats.

San Francisco Giants
The lineup is way too weak to compete in this division. They added some pop in Aaron Rowand but his numbers will surely drop because he is no longer playing with Rollins, Utley, and Howard. Outside of Rowand they have young 1B Dan Ortmeier who could be okay but nothing special. The rest of the team is 33 or older and that just won’t cut it. They do have some grit with Dave Roberts, Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham. They were good but are way past their prime. Those players can only be useful if surrounded by young guns that can learn from them.

The rotation is young and exciting, headlined by Barry ‘best curveball in baseball some of the time’ Zito. At age 29, Zito is the geezer of the group. The other young guys are 23 year-olds Matt Cain and Tim Linecum and 27 year-old Noah Lowry, each of whom posted a sub 4.00 ERA in their first real seasons. If these guys all live up to the hype, or half way, the Giants could have the best rotation in the division but will need Cy Young years out of three of them to overcome the lineup deficiencies. The bullpen is lacking with Brian Wilson as the closer.

Overall the Giants need some serious help offensively. The good news is they shouldn’t have trouble selling tickets, even without Bonds, because there will likely be enough scouts to fill the stadium watching the budding superstar hurlers. 70-74 wins.

San Diego Padres
A good team, don’t get me wrong, but not good enough to crack the top three. Their lineup is just too weak to compete with the high-powered offenses in the NL. They definitely have some power in the heart of the lineup with stud Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene and Kevin Kouzmanoff but Greene may struggle, as usual, to hit .250. The rest of the lineup is well past their prime or mediocre. Jim Edmonds, Michael Barrett, and Brian Giles were once All-Stars but that is unlikely to occur ever again. The Padres will need prime production from all three to compete in this division.

Their rotation is pretty solid, but it will have to be great. Peavy is the best pitcher not named Santana in baseball and Chris Young is not far behind. After that it is not strong, but two can often be enough these days. Greg Maddux, love him to death, no longer has ace qualities and is a borderline 3rd in the rotation pitcher followed by underachiever-by-injury Mark Prior and Randy Wolf. Nothing too exciting. Prior is a gamble that I like for the Padres because he came at a reasonable price and could eventually pan out. His career could take-off similar to Chris Carpenter’s after his multiple injuries with the Jays. If that happens, this division could turn nearly upside down. Hoffman isn’t getting any younger either but is still as solid as they come in the 9th inning.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they come first or fourth but their upside is just not as big. They will be in it for most of the season but drop off as the old guys wear down. 80-83 wins.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Will Joe Torre be enough? Probably not yet, but eventually. This club has some serious potential and they hired the right man to take advantage of it. They have a good mix of young players and veterans that can all make a difference in every ball game. The young core includes 5-tool catcher and fellow Canadian Russell Martin, James Loney at 1st base, Matt Kemp in RF, and likely Andy LaRoche taking over for Nomar part way into the season. And for all those hoping, he doesn’t take his gloves off every pitch. The veterans include speedster Juan Pierre in the leadoff position as well as Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, and huge offseason acquisition Andruw Jones up the middle of the diamond. This is the second best lineup in the division without a doubt, but the young guys are not quite there yet and the vets may have been there too long ago.

Their rotation is as unpredictable as it gets in the NL. Brad Penny could win the Cy Young if he plays enough or he could give up a ton of HRs. Derek Lowe could cut his hair or he could not. Chad Billingsley could be the best young pitcher in baseball or he could enter a sophomore slump. Hiroki Kuroda could be the next Japanese phenom (at 33? Really?) or the next Chan Ho Park. Esteban Loazia/Jason Schmidt, well, ‘nuff said. See a pattern? It is just too hard to predict any higher in THIS division without more consistency from the rotation.

Once again, they could win it but are more likely to win 82-85.

Colorado Rockies
Everyone remembers that Cinderella only gets one dance. Yes they were hot last year but I don’t expect them to keep on that pace again this year. They may have the best offense in baseball with a great mix of speed, power, and gap hitters but their pitching may not cut it to make the playoffs again with a miracle finish.

Getting Willy Tavares back from injury as the leadoff man will help improve, if possible, the production of Tulowitzki, Holliday, Atkins, Hawpe, and Helton. A scary, to say the least, top six as there has ever been. To give you an idea: all batted over .290, three hit over .320, four drove in at least 99 runs, and four had at least 24 HRs. WOW. The seven and eight spot will include a catcher tandem of Torrealba and Ianetta and rookie 2B Jayson Nix. Average 7 and 8 batters combined with that top six create an unbelievable force to be reckoned with.

The rotation is pretty average, however. Francis is decent, Cook is okay, Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsch have potential but are probably not there yet. Morales is the only starter that had an under 4.00 ERA and he only started 8 games. The Rox management also seems to be scared of the rotation because they signed veterans Mark Redman and Kip Wells as insurance or possibly outright starters if the young guys need some more minor league time. Jimenez and Morales have shown enough to prove that the rotation is good enough to compete in the division and for the playoffs. The bullpen played really well down the stretch for a young squad. Brian Fuentes is key as the setup man to young fireballer Manny Corpas.

The lineup is good enough to overcome any pitching woes and they should win a similar amount of games to last year at 88-91 and it will likely come down to the last game or two for the division. They may not be as good as their playoff run showed, but they may not have to be.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Somehow they won the NL last year with an extremely young team highlighted by injury-prone journeyman Eric Byrnes. No one saw that coming. As much as I don’t think they are as good as the Rockies on paper, it is very hard for me to demote the winner last year when the only change was the addition of Cy Young candidate Dan Haren. This extremely young team (only two starting hitters over 25) also got older and now has playoff experience under their belt. It’s hard for me to make a decision because of the Rockies’ bandwagon.

This team will score a lot off of clutch two-out singles but they will get a lot of solo homeruns as well. Sure, many have a pretty bad average but they find ways to grind it out and win games. Bob Melvin has done an incredible job managing games for this team and he is still there so look for that to continue. Byrnes is the key to this lineup and if he goes down, so do the D-Backs.

Making another bold statement, their rotation is the best in baseball. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren were both close to winning their respective Cy Youngs last year, are 28 and 27, and were 2nd and 6th in the majors for ERA last season. Reminds me of the tandem of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling that won the World Series. By the way, the Big Unit is back and, baring injury, is still a force, especially in the NL. The rest of the rotation is filled out by the more than adequate lefty Doug Davis and his 13 wins and 4.25 ERA and budding superstar Micah Owings. The bullpen is also deep with Chad Qualls, Tony Pena, Juan Cruz, Doug Slaten, and Brandon Lyon. One of those guys, they hope Lyon, will have to step up and be the dominant closer that Jose Valverde was for this team to win the NL again. I think they can manage with those guys.

This was a tough call but tie goes to the incumbent. Rox vs. Diamondbacks will be an interesting rivalry all season that will no doubt be decided in the last ten days where they play each other six times. It truly is dominant pitching vs. dominant hitting and usually pitching wins that battle. Arizona will get 90-92 wins and challenge for the NL lead again.

MVP Candidates
1. Matt Holliday

Cy Young Candidates
1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. Dan Haren

This article has been submitted by Jack Forsayeth.