The On Deck Circle

This article is the final one in a series of divisional previews by Jack Forsayeth. The amalgamated predictions will come out later this week.

The moment you have all been waiting for. I hope you enjoy it. Bottoms up!

Baltimore Orioles
Easily the worst in this division and they lost their two best players in Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada. Their lineup is pretty bad but much better than their rotation. The key to the lineup lies in a good pair of young outfielders in Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. Markakis is already a superstar hitting .300 with 23 HRs and 112 RBI last season and Jones will reach similar status in the next couple of years. They are added to savvy veterans Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, and Brian Roberts. Roberts will likely be traded soon but he is still productive for this team and a top-5 second baseman.

Their staff is flat out awful and someone will have to fill the big ace shoes from the loss of Bedard. The Orioles hope that that guy will be Jeremy Guthrie. He, of course, will not be that guy because he has no where near the talent of Bedard. That being said, he is a decent pitcher who had a 3.70 ERA in 26 starts. Adam Loewen may be the best pitcher on this staff. He is a 23 year old Canadian kid that showed a lot of promise in his six starts last season. The other three in the rotation are not too exciting with Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres, and Steve Trachsel. The bullpen doesn’t get any better with George Sherill closing and Chris Ray and Chad Bradford setting up.

They only got 69 wins last season and that will probably drop because of offseason losses and a stronger division. They will compete with KC for worst in the AL.

Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are really good but I think they have been over-hyped coming in to this season. I have seen them ranked as high as second in this division, which is ludicrous. They do have a strong young core but these guys do not have the talent, yet, to make this team a contender in the AL East. The best player on this team is still Carl Crawford. He is one of the great five tool players in the game and I expect his homerun numbers to get to 20ish this year after a poor 11 last season. He is surrounded by budding superstars BJ Upton and Carlos Pena that make this a fast and formidable lineup. Also in the order is the inconsistent but extremely powerful Johnny Gomes. He has the potential to hit 30 in any given season but could also fail to hit .250 in any given season.

The rotation is young and has a lot of promise. Scott Kazmir will miss a few starts but has as good stuff as anyone in the league. James Shields had a breakout year last season and I look for him to improve upon that this season. Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and Jason Hammel round out the order and all have great potential. They will not be good enough to hold off the other three teams but will really excite some people. Hopefully fans in Tampa will start watching this team because they are worth it.

I look for them to push 80 wins this year and give teams a test in every game, but they are not playoff caliber yet.

New York Yankees
Homer pick? Maybe. Controversial pick? Probably. Right pick? YES, so hear me out before going straight to the comments. The Yankess do have the most formidable lineup in the division but their staff is not good enough to win the many close games that will take place. Leading off will be Johnny Damon. I have never liked him and think he is overrated even for a Yankee. I do, however, think Derek Jeter is underrated. Yes, that under was supposed to be there. This guy gets no love anymore. He was once overrated but since everyone accepted that they have forgot about his mad skills. He is the leader of this club and always will be. He is a proven winner, a proven defender, and a proven hitter and sets the table nicely for the heart of the order batting second. I personally feel he should lead-off over Damon and move Cano to second. The heart of the order has Abreu, A-Rod, Posada, and Giambi. Abreu and A-Rod are still as good as they have been but Posada will definitely not repeat last year and Giambi no longer has anything in the tank. The bottom of the order is probably one of the best in baseball, really leaving no holes in this lineup. Hideki Matsui can drive in runs with the best of them, Cano is a top-5 second baseman and getting better, and Melky Cabrera is a great young talent that the Yankees have developed.

Their rotation has major issues in my opinion. Wang is good but does not possess overpowering stuff. That being said, he has a knack for winning games and I can’t knock him. Pettitte and Mussina, I can, however. These guys are well passed their prime and will surely get injured throughout the year, and Pettitte already is. The 4th and 5th starters are young and frankly unbelievable. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes are both very promising young starters that will eventually come into their own. Contrary to many, I think Kennedy is the better one. But all four of those pitchers will have trouble going more than six innings in any given start and that will lead to major problems for the Yanks and put added pressure on bullpen depth which they do not have. LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth are the middle relievers. Hawkins had a decent year for the Rockies last year but blew all five save opportunities he was given and didn’t have to pitch in the AL East, while Farnsworth is a one-pitch wonder with control issues. Their set-up man is still Joba Chamberlain. Will he repeat his performance last year? Probably not, but he will still be a good set-up man. He will be on a tight inning maximum so they don’t blow out his arm and will not be able to pitch everyday. Same goes for Mariano Rivera. He can no longer go more than one inning which puts too much pressure on the middle relief and will lead to several blown games. Also, if one of the starters goes down they have few credible options to take over and only Wang can pitch on three days rest.

Too many pitching woes will have the Yanks finish third in the division, but don’t get me wrong, they will be in the hunt for the title and the wildcard all season and will still win 87-89 games.

Toronto Blue Jays
I think I justified this pick above. This lineup will really benefit from having David Eckstein leadoff. The Jays have been missing a great leadoff hitter for a long time and Eckstein can provide the average and small ball potential that they need. Batting second will be Shannon Stewart or Matt Stairs depending on who’s playing in the LF platoon. I really think Hill should bat here when Stairs is in but we will see. Batting third will be Rios. He will grow upon last years numbers and be even better this year. Other than A-Rod he may be the best all-round player in the division. 4th will be the aging Frank Thomas. This guy can somehow still get it done and look for 25 HRs and close to 100 RBI again. I really like Gibbons’ plan to hit Wells fifth. This takes the pressure off of him and will allow him to get back into the swing of things, pun intended. I think he will bounce back and hit .290 with 25+ and lead the team in RBI. I really like the bottom of the order with gap hitter Lyle Overbay, underrated Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen/Marco Scutaro, and Gregg Zaun/Rod Barajas. It gives the lineup a lot of depth with no easy outs. One of Rolen or Overbay has to step up and be a great hitter in the six spot to make this lineup complete. This may not be as sexy on paper as the Yanks but Eckstein and Rolen give them the grit that was missing last year and will allow them to compete in every game.

The staff is easily one of the best in the AL, all things considered. Roy Halladay is as good as it gets today, a great groundball pitcher that throws strikes and eats innings. If he stays healthy he will be in the Cy Young race. AJ Burnett is quickly becoming hated in Toronto and he needs to have a good year or else he could be gone. He finished off the season very well last year and I look for that to continue and he’ll win 15+ for the club, giving the Jays one of the top 1-2 punches in the league. The rotation is finished off with three youngsters in Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. They all bring something different to the mound. McGowan is the flashy guy with unbelievable stuff, Marcum is a good groundball pitcher, and Litsch is the lovable Matt Bonner of baseball that won’t give up. All are pretty effective in their own way but McGowan is clearly the stud of the group. The bullpen is one of the best, especially once BJ Ryan comes back. Until then Jeremy Accardo will be the closer who proved he could handle it last season. I think he is better suited for the setup man, but will do for now. Losing Janssen as a setup hurts but I think that Scott Downs will do okay. Middle relief is really a strength with Jason Frasor, Brandon League and Brian Tallet leading the way. I look for the bullpen to win a lot of close games in this division, giving them the edge over the Yanks.

Breaking the 90 win plateau for the first time in too long and challenging for the wildcard is on tap for Toronto. I do not think they will get the Wildcard, I can only make so many bold predictions, but it will make for one hell of a September, Jays fans.

Boston Red Sox
They are much better than the Yankees and Jays. Although the division will be close near the end, they are the best team in the division. They have the lineup of the Yankees combined with the staff of the Jays. 2007 ROY Dustin Pedroia will lead it off and then Kevin Youkilis will setup for the big-2 of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has been consistently .300, 30 and 110, and I look for Manny to match those numbers after underperforming last year. Batting fifth is the great surprise of last year, Mike Lowell. He will probably not match those numbers but will still hit 20+ with tons of RBI opportunities hitting 5th in this lineup. Francona seems to be high on Brandon Moss playing RF and batting 6th, and he’ll likely share time with J.D. Drew. Varitek, Crisp/Ellsbury, and Lugo round out the bottom, giving the Bo Sox a pretty solid lineup top to bottom with a great mix of speed, power, and gap-hitting ability.

Their staff is equally as good. Josh Beckett, although injured, should put together another Cy quality season with a similar amount of wins. Dice-K had a decent rookie year and will likely get better with more experience playing in the MLB and this powerful division. Curt Schilling is also injured and may have lost most of his ability. He will probably share starts with knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who somehow won 17 games last season. As a common theme is this division, all teams have a solid core of young pitchers and it is no different for the Sox. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz can be every bit as good as Red Sox Nation hopes they will be and may even be better than Hughes and Kennedy, but don’t count on it. The bullpen is probably the best in the AL because of Jonathan Papelbon. He is the best closer in the game with amazing firepower. Hideki Okajima, his setup man, is nearly as good, as are the middle relievers Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, and submariner Javier Lopez. Timlin continues to defy age and should be productive once again.

This team should be the favorites to win it all again this year. They will probably not win the AL pennant because of division strength but will still get 95 wins and hold off the Yanks and Jays.

This article is the final one in a series of divisional previews by Jack Forsayeth. The amalgamated predictions will come out later this week.