The On Deck Circle

This article has been submitted by Trevor Smith.

June, that tantalizing mistress for NBA players, is just around the corner. For two prosperous teams, the change of the calendar means destiny and potential immortality awaits them on that grand stage we laymen call the Finals. For the other 28 squads, it means another summer thinking about what might have been as they retool and rebuild in the offseason. Of course, some teams have more work to do than others; perennial playoff squads may need only a few tweaks to refine their rosters for another run at the Larry O’Brien. They are not in the position of, say, the Knicks. But while teams already eliminated from postseason play might not need an extreme overhaul, they should not think themselves sheltered from summer renovations. As the Bulls displayed this year, previous success means nothing when the ball is tipped again in November. With the L’s version of the Final Four now in full swing, I felt it was appropriate to analyze the state of other 12 squads from this season’s Playoffs as they head into the offseason, with an eye to what should be done compared to what will probably happen. Today, we examine the East.

8th: Atlanta Hawks
Prospective Roster Changes: Josh Childress (Restricted), Jeremy Richardson (R), Josh Smith (R), Salim Stoudamire (R), Mario West (R)

Draft Position: None

What Needs to Happen: Obviously, resigning Smith takes precedence over anything else ATL has on its agenda this summer. Atlanta’s fan-base has finally awoken after the young Hawks inspired play against Boston this spring, so doing as much as they can to maintain their young core is vital to continued success. With that said, Marv Williams is essentially the same player as Childress and still working on the Rookie pay scale. If they can swing Childress in a sign-and-trade for another able body and a pick, it would allow Williams more playing time, give the now-stud-soph Al Horford more touches, and free up cap room for next summer’s bumper crop of free agents (they will also be getting out from under Bibby’s crippling contract next summer).

What Will Happen: The Hawks’ GM position remains vacant, which is not as alarming as it might be if Atlanta had any draft picks to prepare for (and given their draft history perhaps this is for the best). Whoever take the job will immediately try to resign Smith and will likely be forced to match after another club offers him a near-max deal. Given that we have no idea who will be the GM it is hard to prognosticate what the mystery man will do about Childress, but my instincts tell me they will grossly overpay for him based on the belief that Williams would be unable to replicate his shooting range and therefore could not create lanes for their other slashers. This shortsighted move ignores that, for all the potentially greatness they showed this postseason, they still only won 37 games with this core and that they will cripple their long-term flexibility by resigning both Childress and Smith. From there they will part with Stoudamire in hopes that Acie Law will come into his own. Richardson and West will likely also walk as cap casualties.

Next Season: 39-43, Ninth. A slight improvement in total wins will not be enough to sneak into the Playoffs again, as the reloaded Bulls (and potentially the Melo-lead Nets?) take their place in the postseason.

7th: Philadelphia 76ers
Prospective Roster Changes: Louis Amundson (R), Herbert Hill (R), Andre Iguodala (R), Shavlik Randolph (R), Louis Williams (R), Calvin Booth (PO), Kevin Ollie (U)

Draft Position: 16th

What Needs to Happen: Much like Atlanta, it is vital that Philadelphia resign its young, dynamic wingman, in this case Iguodala. While AI2 won’t come cheap, he showed himself to be a leader after the All-Star break (even if his play against Detroit left something to be inspired). With no other teams expressing interest, Williams should be inexpensive to retain and serves as a nice placeholder until Thad Young or Iguodala is able to shift to the two. Kevin Ollie is the definition of expendable, so long as they can locate a decent backup for Miller. Randolph and Hill bring nothing to the table (figuratively in Shav’s case, literally in Herbert’s) and can be replaced inexpensively.

What Will Happen: Iggy did Philly’s checkbooks a huge favor with his play in the postseason, as it is unlikely his 13.2ppg is likely to attract a max contract elsewhere. Assuming he is locked in, the team’s main attention should go towards its pick. Given that it falls just outside the lottery, the Sixers should come away with an immediate contributor to propel them back to the playoffs. Either DJ Augustin (a great backup to Miller and a Point Guard for the future) or Donte Greene (giving them some much needed outside shooting) would fit. There is no way Booth opts out of his deal, meaning he is sure to return.

Next Season: 43-39, Eighth. The young Sixers will continue to develop next year and should return to the postseason behind strong play from Young (a future star) and steady leadership from Miller.

6th: Toronto Raptors
Prospective Roster Changes: Jose Calderon (R), Carlos Delfino (R), Primoz Brezec (U), Rasho Nesterovic (PO)

Draft Position: 17th

What Needs to Happen: The need to resign Calderon is so painfully obvious that it’s self-evident to even the most casual of fan north of the 49th parallel. Jose is the Raps second most important and talented player after Bosh: his ability as orchestrate the offense, his strength as a teammate, and his consistency all make him the anti-TJ Ford. TJ is a highly capable and talented lead guard that will find success in this league, but not in Toronto. Colangelo should look to move Ford for whatever he can under the “addition by subtraction” principle, while bringing Roko Uki? over from Roma to back up Calderon. From there, BC might want to explore a sign-and-trade with Delfino. The team has a logjam on the wing, with several players inconsistently providing the same contributions. Given they have already resigned Moon and the emergence of Kapono during the Magic series, the Raps should cash out on Delfino high after his career year. Beyond those moves, TO must find someone to nurture Andrea’s development in ways Mitchell never has and use their pick on the likes of Roy Hibbert or Robin Lopez for an added inside presence.

What Will Happen: Colangelo has been clear in saying that the point guard situation will get “straightened out this summer,” while also emphasizing the need to retain Jose, meaning the writing is on the wall for Ford. His sizable contract means he will likely have to be packaged with another player with potential (possibly Joey Graham?) and any team taking him on will probably want to dump an awful contract. Toronto has already secured the ability to bring Uki? across the Atlantic, so one expects him to back up Calderon. Defino is likely to be retained at a reasonable price, Brezec is completely replaceable (sorry, Gangsta) and Rasho will certainly use his option, meaning his expiring deal might be trade-bait. BC has shown his willingness to tinker with the roster in the name of progress, so a big offseason trade is possible, but more than likely the Raps will go into next year with their core intact, hope Andrea discovers some kind of consistency, and gear up to be a player in the ridiculous 2009 free-agent class.

Next Season: 45-37, Fifth. Prior to Bosh’s injury and the utter distraction of TJ coming back, the Raps were on pace to finish no worse than fifth in the East this year. Simply by not having the cloud of confusion hanging over the point guard spot is enough to get Toronto an extra four or five wins. Should Il Mago actually become dependable instead of simply showing flashes of brilliance, this team could be a matchup nightmare…or they could lose in the first round again.

5th: Washington Wizards
Prospective Roster Changes: Gilbert Arenas (Player Opt-out), Antawn Jamison (U), Roger Mason (U)

Draft Position: 18th, 48th

What Needs to Happen: Jamison must be resigned: versatile players that give you 21+ a night along with over 10 boards are not expendable. While Antawn is 32 and will likely see his skills and averages decline slowly in the years ahead, the Wizards can invest confidently in a 4-year deal knowing that they are getting a career 19, 9 guy that is a tremendous character guy and leader. As difficult as it is to write, Washington should let Arenas walk. It appears his knee will always be an issue from this point forward, and with the market ready to overpay him (L.A. Clippers, I am looking your way), it may be in their best interest long-term to break-up their Big Three. Stevenson showed all year that he is a viable substitute for Gil at about a quarter the price (at least when he isn’t tugging at King James’ cape and hanging out with Mr. Crank That). Between DeShawn, the emerging Nick Young, and the steady Antonio Daniels, the District has enough firepower to account for GA’s absence and have money to make a run at a younger, healthier free-agent to complement Tough Juice and Antawn.

What Will Happen: DC is unlikely to part with Arenas for business reasons more than basketball ones, as few players have the mystique GA does to draw fans into the seats. He is a marquee player and still the face of the franchise outside of Washington, meaning they most likely will have to roll the dice on his knee being repaired and ready to go for the full season next year. Jamison will surely be back, if for no reason other than few other teams will be able to afford his services this summer. The Wiz will likely look to shore up their front line with the first round pick, so Hibbert, JaVale McGee, or Kosta Koufos are all decent picks here.

Next Season: 46-36, Fourth. So long as Caron is healthy, this is one of the most dangerous teams in the East. They have been hampered heavily by injuries for the past two years, so there is no assurance that it will not happen again. But assuming Butler is able to play in 75 games, that Gil is even 85% of his old self, and that Jamison doesn’t radically decline after signing his deal, this team could easily supplant the Magic in the East’s top three.

4th: Cleveland Cavaliers
Prospective Roster Changes: Daniel Gibson (R), Dwayne Jones (R), Delonte West (R), Devin Brown (U), (Lance Allred and Billy Thomas have Limited Salary Protection)

Draft Position: 19th

What Needs to Happen: “What more can I say?/What more can I do?” The line is Jay-Z’s, but it might as well be from the mouth of his BFF, King James. James has carried this repugnant roster as far as he could for the past two seasons. Based on their inflexibility under the cap and plethora of unmovable assets, the Cavs look stuck with the bulk of their aging squad. Brown should be let go, as should Jones and West. Boobie should be retained only if Ferry can avoid overpaying. Beyond that the Cavs should use their first-round pick to improve their athleticism (Wally’s first step isn’t scaring anyone) with the likes of the freakish hops of Chase Budinger. The main activity Cleveland brass should engage in this summer? Prayer, that LeBron doesn’t take off in two years.

What Will Happen: Sadly, not much. Even with Hughes and Marshall gone, the brutal free-agent summer signings of 2005 haunts this team and its payroll. Damon Jones is still robbing the team for another season, the corpse of Ben Wallace will be on the payroll for another two years, and even Big Z has two seasons remaining on his monstrous deal. Ferry is likely to resign Gibson at a decent rate, and will surely try to make an impact trade around the draft in order to both secure his job and restore the King’s faith in the franchise’s vision, but the Hughes trade was really the only card Ferry had left to play. He pinned the team into a corner with overpaying for mediocre free-agents and is paying for it now. The countdown for LeBron arrival in Brooklyn has officially started.

Next Season: 44-37, Sixth. Cleveland will still be forced to use LeBron has a playmaker instead of a finisher, and the King is still surrounded with scrubs in the place of quality shooters and slashers. I expect Cleveland’s defense to be as stingy as ever, but their offense will become even more one-dimensional than it already is as Z and Wally move another year on the wrong side of 30.

3rd: Orlando Magic
Prospective Roster Changes: James Augustine (R), Carlos Arroyo (U), Keith Bogans (PO), Keyon Dooling (U), Maurice Evans (U), Adonal Foyle (PO), Pat Garrity (U)

Draft Position: 22nd

What Needs to Happen: For a team seemingly on the rise, Orlando has a lot of question marks heading into next season. Sure, their core of Nelson, Howard and Hedo is locked in place, however most of their supporting cast is in limbo. Bogans will likely exercise his option and stay with the club, meaning the club should also resign Evans and let Dooling walk (perhaps in hopes that J.J. can give them anything useful next season). Arroyo was utterly useless during the Detroit series and need not be brought back. Garrity is the longest-serving member of the team, and it is good bet that he will come back, though passing up on him in hopes of improving their rebounding might be worth investigating. Drafting a guard like Ty Lawson or Mario Chalmers would give them a nice backup to Nelson.

What Will Happen: Foyle will exercise his player option, as will Bogans. I do not expect to see Dooling or Arroyo back in O-town next season, and the club will likely opt to keep Evans and Garrity both. The most interesting thing will be how Orlando chooses to use their first-round pick. If they pursue a backup guard, it is likely they will resign all of their swing players and shooters. However, should they elect to draft a player like Chris Douglas-Roberts or Brandon Rush, they would then part with either Evans or Garrity and pursue a backup point via free agency.

Next Season: 49-33, Third. Expect an ever-so-slight dip from Mickey’s favorite team, despite their strong play against Detroit and Howard’s total domination over the Raptors this postseason. One can reasonably expect Howard’s offensive game to develop even more next year, which in itself would suggest an improved record, but it remains to be seen if Hedo will maintain his excellence given how late in his career he has established himself and based on the unknown future of many of their key wings.

This article has been submitted by Trevor Smith.