With a 2.61ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, nobody is going to be complaining about Henderson Alvarez’ results so far this season.

Alvarez, the Blue Jays’ second-year number three starter, is off to a great start based on traditional baseball card numbers, also sporting a 3-2 record and averaging just shy of 7 innings per start. He’s been of great value to a rotation that has seen ups-and-downs from the new-look Brandon Morrow, rookie Drew Hutchison, and the rebounding Kyle Drabek. Alvarez has lasted at least six innings in every outing and has allowed more than three runs just once, providing a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation.

With all of that said, there is legitimate cause for concern. Although Alvarez passes the eye test on the mound except for the occasional meatball, some of his peripheral stats simply can’t be maintained. Alvarez sports a 5.28 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP (which normalizes home run rate), indicating he’s due for some regression in a pretty serious way. While pitchers can show an ability to outperform their fielding-independent numbers, Alvarez has by far the biggest gap between ERA and FIP in the entire Major Leagues. In fact, Jeremy Hellickson (someone who appears to be demonstrating a skill in beating the peripherally-suggested measures) is the only other pitcher with an FIP-ERA gap of greater than 2. Simply put, while Alvarez’ ERA has graded out as 32% better than league average, his FIP actually sees him as 28% worse (xFIP shows him as 14% worse).

So where do the discrpancies lie, and can Alvarez maintain this to some degree? It doesn’t look positive.

The first thing that sticks out is Alvarez’ striekout numbers. At just 2.61 K/9, Alvarez edges out Derek Lowe as the league’s least capable strikeout artist. Alvarez also ranks fourth last in Swinging Strike %, meaning he only induces whiffs more often than Fat Bartolo, Chris Volstad, and Lucas Harrel. His K/9 is actually so weak that you have to go back to Kirk Reuter in 2004 for the last time someone qualified for the ERA title with a rate that low (and it was technically higher at 2.65 K/9). There has just hasn’t been a pitcher in recent history to display success with this low a strikeout rate.

It’s not all bad though, as you can expect the K-rate to rebound a bit. Alvarez had a 5.65 K/9 last year in his 10-start audition and ZIPS projects him for 4.79 K/9 the rest of the way. These numbers are still below average, but they’re safely outside of worst-of-all-time territory. Alvarez also maintains a K/BB ratio of greater than 1 by never walking anybody (2.42 BB/9) and keeps hitters from teeing off on his hittable pitches by inducing a 58.1% ground-ball rate, the 6th best in baseball.

Unfortunately, it’s not just the strikeouts forecasting gloom for the spectacled ground-ball artist. While ground-balls go for hits less often than line drives or fly balls, his BABIP is a minscule .212, indicating some balls should start missing gloves shortly. Alvarez does have the profile to beat the league-expected BABIP of approximately .295 as a ground-ball pitcher with an elite infield defense, but his current number would indicate an extreme amount of luck.

Alvarez has also shown an uncanny ability to pitch from the stretch…or an uncanny amount of luck stranding runners. His strand rate of 88.7% is well above the league average of approximately 72% and is currently the 6th best mark in the Majors. Again, pitchers can demonstrate some ability to beat the league average here, but like BABIP, this is an element more controlled by luck. Basically, by crediting him with his strand rate, either we’re saying he’s unbelievable out of the stretch, or he has the innate ability to sequence hits and walks how he pleases (as an example, homer+single = 1 run, but single+homer = 2 runs, despite the same outcomes occuring).

One area where Alvarez could see some improvement is in his home run rate, which is high at 15.2% of fly balls. Alvarez didn’t show a propensity for the long-ball in the minors, but this rate is almost identical to the one he had last season, so it’s also possible he’s prone to mistakes that Major League hitters don’t let him get away with. Hey, if you’re gonna credit him for his low BABIP, you’ve got to blame him for the HR% too.

I have some difficulty saying I expect Alvarez to regress to being a bad pitcher as his FIP would suggest. Again, he induces ground balls at a ridiculous rate, his K-rate should tick upwards, and his HR/FB rate should decline. ZIPS hates him to the tune of a 4.93 ERA the rest of the way, but my homerism won’t allow me to be so negative. The introduction of a cutter (though at the expense of his above-average changeup, which is now being used just 12% of the time compared to 18.3% last year) and the increased use of his slider (up to 14.7% from 9.9%) should allow him to keep hitters guessing more than they were last year (71.8% fastballs). Furthermore, he’s never shown a tendency to walk many batters, so his BB/9 rate should help keep his WHIP low even if his BABIP adjusts.

That said, he’ll simply have to find a way to start mising more bats to maintain anything close to his current success rate. He probably has to start getting more “effectively wild” to induce a few more swings, and a refined use of his changeup (it has 8MPH separation from his fastball, but it comes in with almost no vertical movement, per PitchF/X) could help.

With the Jays elite infield defense and his elite GB% and BB%, Alvarez has a better shot than most to outperform his peripheral indicators, but smoke and mirrors can only last for so long. Alvarez can have a very bright future if he can change his profile to be even a below-average strikeout guy, but there’s no way he’ll survive long-term in the AL East pitching to the 4th-highest contact rate in the majors. He draws the Tampa Bay Rays (6th in the AL in scoring) and the New York Mets (4th in the NL in scoring) this week, so now is as good a time as any to start making those adjustments.

I’ve heard a lot of people complain this offseason that the Toronto Blue Jays didn’t do enough to improve their team for 2012. Of course, these people tend to be those who believe the Jays should have thrown $300M at Pujols, $250M at Fielder, and $100M at Buerhle, but do they have a point that, on the whole, the Jays have stagnated to a detrimental degree?

The imrpovements, if any, have surely been of the smaller and more incremental variety. Primarily, the bullpen is almost completely overhauled, and it was done on the cheap. While you may think $4.5M for Francisco Cordero or Darren Oliver was too much, or that giving up prospect Nestor Molina’s potential for Sergio Santos was too hefty a price, the Jays have still revamped their bullpen to be a budget-conscious $14M unit heavy on experience. It’s also one that runs pretty deep, with some of Luis Perez, Carlos Villaneuva, Jesse Litsch, Joel Carreno, and more likely ticketed for Triple-A. $14M, I’ll remind you, is roughly what Jonathan Papelbon alone will make in the Phillies’ bullpen this year. While I find the “closer role” to be overvalued, the 2011 bullpen as a whole blew 25 saves, an area that appears set to improve with the back-end of Santos, Oliver, Cordero, Casey Jansse, Jason Frasor, and whoever fills it out.

The starting rotation, meanwhile, will look familiar. Ricky Romero and freshly-signed Brandon Morrow will anchor the group, and we’ll hope Morrow finally brings his ERA (4.72) closer in line with his FIP (3.64). Henderson Alvarez looked promising last year (3.53 ERA, 3.97 FIP) and will look to build on that, followed by a hopefully-healthy Dustin McGowan, who is likely to be on strict innings and pitch limits. The fifth and final spot appears to be an open competition between Kyle Drabek (2011′s biggest prospect fall-off), Brett Cecil (still trying to find out which Brett Cecil he wants to be), or long-shot prospect Drew Hutchinson, who has been fellated all winter long by the organization. Will this group improve on 2011′s numbers? It’s debatable, but with room for improvement in results from Morrow and Cecil, skills in Alvarez and Drabek, and opportunity in McGowan and Hutchinson, it’s certainly not a hard argument to make.

In all though, it’s difficult to surmise exactly how improved the Jays’ rotation and bullpen may be. We’ll have a better idea when spring training opens and we can see if the standard offseason tales (Cecil’s weight management, Hutchinson’s magic, Morrow’s cutter, etc) are truth or fiction.

What we can estimate with a slightly better microscope, though, is the improvement to the lineup. Hitting wasn’t exactly an issue in 2011, with the Jays finishing 6th in the MLB in runs and 11th in OPS. An issue, though, is that the Red Sox and Yankees finished ahead of them in both categories, putting the pressure on the Jays to take aim as the top offensive unit in the AL East. Is this too tall a task for a lineup with little-to-no turnover? ZIPS doesn’t think so.

ZIPS preojected the Jays hitters for 2012, and while imperfect, it’s a tool that can give us an idea of how the computer systems think the Jays’ hitters will fare. You can check the raw projections at that link, but the issue is that they predict full workloads for most players (if you totalled their projections, the Jays would take 6473 at-bats, nearly 1000 more than in 2011). So what I did was made assumptions about playing time, as outlined below, and scaled the number of at bats each player would have per the chart below (the green rows are ZIPS original projections, while blue cells are those same projections scaled for different playing time).

Playing Time Assumptions
* Eric Thames and Travis Snider would get nearly equal at bats, about 3/4 of a full workload for Snider and 2/3 for Thames. ZIPS had Thames for a full season and Snider for about 3/4, which would require one to DH full-time. Here I have assumed whoever doesn’t play LF may get some DH at-bats against righties. ZIPS also assumed some lost time for Bautista, allowing both to see some time in RF.
*Mike McCoy beats out Danny Valbuena and Omar Vizquel for the utility role.
*Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco both make the team as extra outfielders instead of an extra utility infielder, with Davis playing about twice as much but neither playing a tonne. While this may not make sense, ZIPS sees more time lost in the OF than IF, so it was an easier assumption to work with.
*Jeff Mathis is used sparringly as a back-up to J.P. Arencibia due to his anemic bat, J.P.’s youth, and the desire to see him handle a whole workload.
*No in-season call-ups or major injuries, which was just done for simplicity’s sake.

The Stats – 2012 Adjusted ZIPS Projections

The Analysis
The issue with these projection systems is that they rarely deviate too far from an established level of performance (i.e. they never would have predicted Bautista’s break-out, Dunn’s fall-off, etc). They’re based on component skills, opportunity, similar player profiles, aging and progression, and thousands of simulations. They can be accurate (I believe the best tools aim to predict about 70% of the annual variance in player statistics), but as I mentioned, they’re just a tool to help us here.

In this case, ZIPS sees the Jays OPSing .763, about 30 points better than last year, at a rate that would have bumped them to 6th in the MLB in 2011. Their runs total jumps 30 to 772, seeing them jump to 5th overall. These are incremental increases that still don’t see them pass Boston or New York (although I could run the analysis for those two teams as well, I’m assuming they will perform similarily to their established track records), but they close the gap. My adjustments may be flawed to some degree, as well, and therefore over- or under-count certain stats at the team level. Still, for illustrative purposes, please accept my assumptions and projections.

Of note on the team level is yet another mediocre batting average, .254 (middle of the pack), buoyed by a slight increase in OBP to .321 (middle of the pack), and an appreciable jump in slugging to .442 (would rank 4th in MLB in 2011). This isn’t really surprising given the Jays’ recent history and strategy, although it will be interesting to see if notorious swingers like Kelly Johnson, J.P. Arencibia, and Travis Snider can see an uptick in their OBP’s if Triple-A hitting coach Chad Mottola is kept up with the big club (he preaches patience in the minors, the anti-Dwayne Murphy). ZIPS sees the Jays’ somehow striking out even more than in 2011, cracking the top-5 with 1300 Ks, but also walking slightly more to balance it out (basically, ZIPS is turning the Jays into a Three True Outcomes monster, with so few balls put in play)

The key area ZIPS sees an improvement, though, is in power hitting. This may come as a bit of a shock since the Jays placed 5th in home runs in 2011, but ZIPS likes them to challenge for the league lead, even with a down year for Jose Bautista. In fact, ZIPS sees the Jays as having six 20-homer hitters (Lawrie, Lind, Rasmus, Johnson, Arencibia, Bautista), as well as a 19-homer bat (Edwin). Last year, just three Jays cracked 20 bombs (Bautista, Lind, Arencibia). Immediately, you can see the basis for the Jays’ potential improvement offensively.

The Jays will improve based on 2011 additions, not offseason additions. That is the crux of my argument for Blue Jays improvement this season. Yes, their offseason was quiet, but in 2011 they acquired Kelly Johnson (an upgrade on Aaron Hill, save for one outlier season), Colby Rasmus (an upgrade on the pu-pu platter in CF last year), and Brett Lawrie (by way of a promotion). The additional at bats from these three should yield positive returns over the 2011 outputs of Nix, McDonald, Hill, Davis, Patterson, etc.

No, ZIPS hasn’t given up on Rasmus, projecting him to be 5% better than an average offensive player (105 OPS+, before accounting for the fact that he plays a premium defensive position), and we shouldn’t either – the kid has tools for days, and has had an offseason to settle his head and recommit himself. Of course, it could all be for naught and he’s as bad as he looked last year, but I sincerely doubt it.

As for Lawrie…well, I don’t think I need to remind anyone of how hot and bothered he got us all after debuting last year. ZIPS likes him for 27 taters, 33 doubles, 10 triples, and 24 stolen bags, so uhh, yeah…try to get him on your fantasy team.

As for the Left Field issues, ZIPS likes Thames just a bit better than Snider (96 OPS+ to 89), based mostly on a few more walks and extra base hits. Neither has ample MLB data to project reliably, and I’m still firmly on Team Snider in this battle – I like Thames as an interview and as the team’s resident jack-show, but Snider has a greater pedigree and a better minor league performance at a younger age, which tends to bode better for MLB success. It’ll surely be an interesting spring training for these two.

Other notes: ZIPS sees Bautista’s OPS+ dropping to a still-unreal 158 (from 181), with only 136 games played, likely due to age concerns and a lack of a robust history to project from. I’m more optimistic. ZIPS likes Lind for a slight upgrade, Yunel for a slight downgrade, and Arencibia to be a carbon copy of 2011 J.P.

So no, the Jays didn’t sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, or even Carlos Beltran. They didn’t add a starter, and they went with a cheap closer with strong peripherals instead of an albatross contract waiting to happen. They didn’t add substantial pieces, but they’re banking on improvement based on acquisitions in 2011 and the development of what now ranks as a top-3 farm system in baseball. It wasn’t a sexy winter, and this still doesn’t look like an AL East divison winner, but they definitely look like a competitive team able to aim for much higher than 81-81.

If we’re being completely honest, the best rookie in the American League this season has been Brett Lawrie, followed closely by Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley. The Rookie of the Year race should be between these three future franchise cornerstones, but it seems grossly unlikely that voters will give the nod to players who played partial seasons only, even if their sabermetric stats like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) may dictate they were, in fact, the most valuable (and outstanding) AL rookies.

This is, of course, a shame, and an indictment on current CBA rules that more or less force budget-conscious teams to keep their top prospects in the minors to start the year, thus avoiding “Super Two” early-arbitration eligibility. By keeping Lawrie, Jennings, Ackley, and others in the minors until June, July, or later, teams can push their service time clocks far enough back to control the player for an additional year later on. While you can agree or disagree with this from a team management standpoint (after all, the Jays will likely lock up Lawrie to a long-term deal buying out his arbitration years anyway, and ditto for the other two), you can’t help but find the error from a moral standpoint – this is a system that hurts players, teams, and owners by keeping major league caliber talent off of rosters for a suboptimal amount of time. But I digress…

My point is that with these three (we’ll call them your MVRs or MORs for Most Valuable/Most Outstanding Rookies) will not be given the Rookie of the Year nod unless voters have a serious change in their standard views of the award. That makes the actual Rookie of the Year race relatively wide-open, and with that in mind I turn your attention to the candidacy of another Toronto Blue Jay, rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia.

Don’t initially dismiss Arencibia. While my nomination may, in part (okay, entirely), be buoyed by his immense likability, and my homerism, he has a legitimate case to at least be in the second tier of the discussion. The fact that he has become one of the Jays’ most popular players, and their biggest presence in the Toronto community, is a great sign for the franchise but irrelevant to the award voting. (But still…hockey-cliche laden interviews, CCMA appearances, bonding with the Leafs, showing up on The Edge…this guy is already an honorary Canadian, a huge fan favorite, and a Bieber-esque heart-throb in the eyes of female Jay fans.)

In pure baseball terms though, Arencibia probably isn’t the AL Rookie of the Year. When I planned to write this article, I thought the numbers would back up my case better than they did. That said, his season should still be acknowledged as a standout rookie performance. Arencibia has already set Blue Jay records for home runs by a catcher and by a rookie, and is closing in on those same records for runs batted in (though he’ll likely miss Eric Hinske’s rookie mark of 84 RBI).

After winning the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) MVP award last year, Arencibia was still doubted as a major league contributor entering this season. His defense was poor, he hit home runs and nothing else, he struggled to throw runners out, and had all the makings of a Quad-A player. The Jays believed enough to hand him the starting reigns, and it’s paid dividends this season. Arencibia’s defense has improved immensely from the start of the season, and while there aren’t robust enough statistics to back it up, he certainly passes the eye test now. Yes, he has the most passed balls (11) of any catcher not asked to catch a Knuckleballer (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Josh Thole have more, catching Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey), and his thrown out percentage (24.2%) isn’t other-worldly. However, that success rate is the 13th best among qualified catchers, he’s thrown out the 15th most runners in baseball (24), and if you believe in that sort of thing, he has a respectable 4.30 catcher’s ERA (cERA). Defensive statistics have come a long way but are still poor for evaluating catchers, so it’s tough to put a number on Arencibia’s defense, but at the very least it’s clear that he went from being a potential liability to a serviceable defender with a potentially plus throwing arm.

In regards to hitting, it seems he may never hit for a high average, being an all-or-nothing slugger. He sports just a .219 average (dragged down a bit by his unlucky .255 BABIP, though it’s somewhat accurate given his 12.1% infield fly mark) and a .278 OBP. Obviously, that OBP isn’t an acceptable mark, and he needs to cut down on his 27.5% strikeout rate, but his .447 SLG (.229 ISO) makes up for some of that deficit, bringing him to a 95 wRC+. This means he’s been only about 5% below a league-average hitter overall, and that’s before the positional adjustment that makes him an above-average hitting catcher. WAR may underrate him a bit 1.4 (dragged down by mediocre fielding metrics and a poor baserunning score), though 14th among qualified AL rookies is still relatively impressive.

For those who don’t like the deeper statistics, Arencibia’s rookie year looks even better – he has 22 home runs and 72 RBI. While he’s only managed 17 doubles (and 4 triples), his power doesn’t appear fluky, as he has just 3 of his homers have been classified as the “just enough” variety. Arencibia has proven that the power he showed in the minor leagues is a major league skill, and this will be at least enough to keep him in work for some time. That isolated slugging % is second only to Brett Lawrie and Jason Kipnis among AL rookies, and they don’t have the plate appearances to technically qualify. That is, Arencibia adds more to his batting average with extra-base hits than any other rookie.

Arencibia obviously needs to continue to develop if he wants to keep the Jays’ starting catching job for much longer. Travis d’Arnaud won the Eastern League (Double-A) MVP this year and currently rates as the top catching prospect in baseball, save for maybe Devin Mesoraco of Cincinnati. Arencibia’s power will play anywhere on the diamond if the OBP increases, but it’s improvements to his K%, BB%, and fielding that will keep him behind the plate in the long-term. After so many doubted him heading into this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same this coming offseason. After all, a .219 average and .278 OBP don’t play in the majors, right?

Sorry, but I’m a believer. Maybe it’s because he has charisma and comes off as a genuinely fun person, or maybe it’s because the players who overcome doubts once tend to be able to do so over the long haul. Maybe it’s because I want Brett Lawrie to have a long-term running mate in the dugout, or just because I have blind faith, or because I use Twitter (JP can be followed @jparencibia9) too much. I’m not sure, really. Sometimes you just get a feeling about a player’s potential. Sometimes it makes you look awful (Curtis Thigpen), sometimes it makes you look good for just a short period (Alex Rios), and sometimes it’s the right feeling, just too strong (Adam Lind). I can’t claim to be all-in on Arencibia as the future of the franchise behind the plate; Travis d’Arnaud is too good to ignore. But I’d love to pencil him in as a part of the team in some form for years to come, and I hope Alex Anthoupolos feels the same.

Search “Nestor Molina” on ESPN.com and it returns 0 results. That’s how under the radar Blue Jays pitching prospect Nestor Molina is/was. But this is absolutely a name to make note of and file away for 2013, because Nestor Molina has been an absolute beast in the minors so far this season.

Signed out of Venezuela as a 17-year old in 2006, Molina spent 2007 and 2008 playing for the Jays’ Dominican Winter League squad, where numbers are hardly projectable. In 2009, Molina spent time at the low levels of the minors, accumulating less than 40 innings. Three years after signing, he had pitched just 81.1 innings, only half in the actual minor leagues. Either Molina was looking like a bust, or the Jays were really nursing him along, right?

Not quite. Molina was originally signed as an infielder and didn’t transition to the mound until the end of 2007. 80 innings over two years for a converted position player is reasonable.

Still, in 2010 Molina managed to remain off the radar. Splitting time between low-A and high-A ball, Molina threw 81 innings, primarily out of the bullpen. His ratios were strong, and the Jays began transitioning him to be a starter, where his four-pitch repertoire and excellent control could be put further under the microscope.

Good decision.

In 2011, Molina has posted the following ludicrous stats:
High-A: 21 games, 18 starts, 108.1 IP, 10-3, 2.58 ERA, 115 K, 14 BB, 2.45 FIP
Double-A: 3 games, 3 starts, 16 IP, 2-0, 0.56 ERA, 24 K, 1 BB, 0.39 FIP
Total: 24 games, 21 starts, 124.1 IP, 12-3, 2.32 ERA, 139 K, 15 BB

Now obviously his Double-A numbers aren’t from a large enough sample to extrapolate that kind of ridiculous success, but look closely and they’re thoroughly impressive. His strikeout rate is 10.1K/9, and his walk rate is 1.09BB/9 for an obscene 9.3:1 K:BB ratio. To put that in perspective, Roy Halladay’s league-best K:BB ratio is 7.91:1. Obviously, these are the mid-level minor leagues, and at 22 years old Molina was due for a jump to New Hampshire. But again, look at how filthy those numbers are!

It took a lot of digging to get some scouting notes on Molina, as he’s been so far below the radar until this season.

Baseball America: Jim Callis: “It’s all solid: fastball, slider, changeup, occasional curveball. Not sure you’d call any of his offerings a plus pitch, but he mixes them well and moves the ball around the strike zone. Not the sexiest scouting report, but that’s the type of guy who winds up in the big leagues.”

Jays Prospects: “Alex Anthopolous has publicly stated that teams have put in phone calls on the 22-year-old Venezuelan prior to the trade deadline. But the Jays were reluctant to move him. “ (Couldn’t find the source on this one, but worth noting.)

Per Bluebird Banter, here is some video, so judge for yourself.

Baseball Prospectus had some notes as well, but they are subscription only, and Keith Law’s only Twitter comments I could find were a smart-ass response to a question that didn’t actually provide info. Kevin Goldstein of BP tweeted, “Not a ton of stuff, finesse type without much upside.”So,this may be a case of me jumping the gun on a prospect who is too far away from the Majors to be excited about, but sue me – Henderson Alvarez and Brett Lawrie have arrived, so it’s time to start looking wayyy forward. Then again, maybe the hype is real, as I found an unsourced quote from New Hampshire pitching coach Pete Walker stating, “Stuff has been as good as I’ve seen at this level. Devastating split.”

Molina will probably be on an innings limit for the rest of the season, as he’s already surpassed his season high by about 40 innings. However, if the team pushses him into the 130 range, it could bode well for his chances of making the club by 2013, as he could conceivably pitch 170 next year and be ready for a full workload by 2013.

He’ll have to turn one or two of those four pitches into a more dominating out pitch if he wants to end up as more than a #4 or #5 starter, but there’s always room in the majors for guys who don’t walk anybody (unless you’re Josh Towers).

Programming note: In the next few weeks I’ll review some of the final season numbers for Jays prospects across the Minors to get our meat-sticks nice and hard for the vaguely defined “future.”

The Blue Jays dipped into the post-deadline trade season, shipping Aaron Hill and John McDonald to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson. On the surface, the deal is more or less a wash, a “challenge” trade, or moving deck chairs, if you may. On a deeper level though, this has the makings of another savvy Alex Anthopoulos move, with a dash of Public Relations magic worked in.

For Arizona, it adds some versatility for a playoff run, but may also cost them at the plate. The initial Toronto reaction seems to be mixed, with some applauding AA for another shrewd asset acquisition, while others have taken the more personal side and don’t want to lose two high-character players. While I understand the second opinion, I think it’s a short-sighted one, especially with some of the comments made by the players in the press conference.

That is, Hill and McDonald both alluded to the possibility of returning to Toronto, as both are free agents at season’s end. While Hill’s role and compensation would be unclear, McDonald’s spot as a de-facto utility-player/coach will be open, and he himself said he’d like to return in that role. Based on comments AA made about McDonald’s interest in the management side of the organization, and his own expressed desire to bring playoff experience back to the club, it seems the club and McDonald have a mutual interest in a working relationship moving forward.

2010 Impact – Hill vs. Johnson
Now obviously, the Jays aren’t that concerned with their record the rest of the way. Hill-to-Johnson isn’t necessarily a huge upgrade based on their stats for the year, but Johnson is certainly a better player. The loss of McDonald hurts from a versatility stand-point, but for the purposes of analysis, this is a Hill-for-Johnson swap.

While Hill had the higher baseball-card peak (2009, with 4.1 WAR, 36 HR, and an .819 OPS), Johnson’s 2010 trumps that in a less flashy way (5.9 WAR, 26 HR, 13 SB, .866 OPS). Johnson’s career-OPS of .779 bests Hill’s .694, and other than Hill’s power peak, Johnson has been a better hitter throughout their careers.

This year, both have been suffering from poor seasons, though Hill’s is his second in a row. Johnson has been the victim of a .257 BABIP, 47-points below his career mark, while his isolated power has hardly dropped (at .202 down from .212 in 2010). His BB% and K% have both moved in the wrong direction, sapping his formerly above-average on-base skills. Hill has also been hurt by a .242 BABIP, a 40-point drop from his career mark, and while his K% is an impressive 12.4%, his walk rate has shrunk to just 5.4%, and his ISO is down all the way to .088.

Basically, Hill now has a two-season sample size suggesting his 2009 season was a large outlier. It’s possible that the 36-homer binge changed his fundamental approach so much that it passed the proverbial point of no return, as Hill originally projected as a decent-average doubles hitter, not a slugger.

For Johnson, this continues a career-long pattern of inconsistency, one that may be chalked up to a change in approach or, as is becoming the Jays’ trademark, a situational issue. After success in Atlanta, he faltered, and then improved upon moving to Arizona. If a scenery change can again get things going for Johnson, this might be a big win for the Jays.

Off-Season Impact
But again, the Jays don’t really care about 2010. Johnson may be a small upgrade at the moment, but the crux of this deal is that in Johnson, they have a player that is more likely a part of the immediate future or provide returns upon leaving. Johnson makes $5.8M but his contract expires after this year. Hill has a two-year team option at $8M/year after this season.

The team was not going to pick up Hill’s options. As a likely Type-B free agent, for the Jays to reap the compensation pick from losing Hill, they would have to offer him arbitration, and it would have been foolish for Hill to decline, as he would be likely to receive a raise on the $5M he made this year. Thus, to get the compensation pick, the Jays would run the risk of being stuck paying Hill more than he made this year. In addition, Hill may not end up qualifying as a Type-B, in which case there would be no compensation.

On the Johnson side, he would appear to be less likely to accept arbitration, as he has a more recent record of success and is generally regarded higher than Hill, so he could make more via free agency than arbitration. In addition, Johnson is a lock for Type-B status, so receiving a pick for his departure is far more likely in his case. While a slight up-tick into the Type-A class could complicate things, it’s also possible the Jays just choose to retain Johnson.

AA has allegedly been after Johnson for some time, and as an upgrade on Hill in a bare middle-infielder market, the Jays may like what they see from this six-week audition and decide to keep Johnson at the keystone moving forward.

The PR Side
A final note is that this move looks good on the Jays as an organization. John McDonald is a 36-year old veteran who had the opportunity to join a competing club for a pennant race, and the Jays made that happen for him. While the fans may not be happy to see a fan-favorite pack his bags, this is a chance McDonald deserves, and fans should wish him the best and hope for a 2012 return.

For Hill, it’s less obvious, but the writing was on the wall that his options would not be picked up. It’s possible the Jays saw a trade as a better transaction for a well-liked player than a declining of options and a non-offer of arbitration.

Overall
I like the deal, which should be clear by now. The Jays move a player who was not a part of the future on his current contract (Hill), while performing a good-karma move for a veteran player (McDonald), and in return get to test-drive a high-upside player before deciding whether or not to make a run at him in free agency (Johnson), while also stealing the potential compensation for him if they don’t (Generic Compensation Pick #421).

Another sly victory at the trade table for AA.

Note on Jeroloman
To fill the extra roster spot, the Jays called up catcher Brian Jeroloman from Triple-A Las Vegas. Jeroloman is not a prospect to get excited about, and while his minor league track record is adequate, he projects as a back-up catcher or organizational depth (which Anthopoulos indicated himself). While I don’t necessarily agree with coming right out and telling a 26-year old he’ll never be better than back-up (even though is 2011 numbers support the notion), it certainly makes sense for the team to burn service time on someone that doesn’t figure in long-term. In addition, he may get the odd chance to show the club he profiles as a back-up instead of organizational filler, in which case…well, good for him.

The basis of this article, as you’ll probably discern, is a bit selfish in nature. To provide context, some #HumbleBrag is necessary. To wit – I have strong intangibles (I think). In general, I’m not an exceptionally talented person in any measurable way, and what I bring to the table professionally, socially, and athletically, is difficult to quantify. I guess this holds for all people, since personality can’t be quantified…so maybe this will hit home for some…or maybe I should shut up. My performance reviews generally touch on strong leadership  abilities. Socially, I provide value by being the “organized one” or the “planner” more often than not. I’m not above-average for Softball or Basketball (not even close for basketball, actually), but a high sports-IQ complements my mediocre skill set (hockey is a different story…straight Ginos, Nifty Mittens, Wheels, etc, etc). I’m also, in Malcolm Gladwell terms, a Maven, someone who owns and shares a lot of information (for no real reason other than to own and share it).

Okay, so #HumbleBrag was an understatement. #SelfFellating may have been more appropriate. At least I didn’t claim to be an above-average athlete though, right?

The point is….I sometimes run into cognitive dissonance when evaluating sports because of this. If I, in many aspects of my life, derive value from and see value in intangibles, how do I sometimes ignore or write-off their impact in the world of professional sports? How do I embrace Sabermetrics, a field of study that strips the human element out of baseball almost entirely? How do I devour the methodology for new advanced basketball statistics that would do the same? How do I accept players with off-the-field issues as equal to those without? Why did it ring true to me when Jonah Keri recently wrote that “An All-Star who is a dick is still an All-Star?”

Now, to be clear, I don’t completely rule out the impact of intangibles when discussing sports with friends, or when I talk about them casually. It’s generally apparent when I write (and in the types of articles I prefer to read) that I don’t hold intangible explanations in high regard. I’d rather look at Vernon Wells’ deteriorating UZR/150 than his charitable contributions, and I’d rather look at his declining BB% and corresponding increasing K% than his leadership abilities in the clubhouse.

This type of crude sports analysis doesn’t mesh well with the type of person I actually am, hence the cognitive dissonance – are intangibles really unimportant, and therefore I don’t hold nearly the value I think, or are intangibles actually important, but I’m just ignorant to their impact at a professional level? Of course, I could gloss over this with the assumption that the more developed the situation (be it league, workplace, etc), the less of an impact intangibles have, but this seems lazy and, to be honest, wrong.

If I’m being honest further, I must admit that a large part of the inspiration for this article is Brett Lawrie. The kid oozes confidence and swagger, plays balls-to-the-wall Full-Tilt at all times, and it really seems to be impacting the Blue Jays’ dugout. I’ve never been in there, so I don’t know, but the team as a whole seems more confident of late. I can’t claim that Lawrie is helping Edwin Encarnacion be more selectively aggressive, or that he’s helped improve Aaron Hill’s hand-slot, or that he’s responsible for Ricky Romero’s unbelievable streak of starts of late. He obviously didn’t make these tangible changes to the individuals. You also can’t prove that Lawrie has lead to bigger and more vocal crowds himself, and that crowds have an impact on players. (Note: While modest, the Jays have averaged 800 more fans in the six home games since he’s been up, but this number is understated because Oakland and the Angels [their opponents in those games] are among the league’s lowest for average road attendance.)

With that said, his call-up did seem to mark a changing of attitude and performance for the team as a whole. Small sample sizes be damned, the Jays are 8-5 since his promotion (.615 W%) and were 56-55 without him (.504 W%). Now, the Jays also had a strong July at 15-11 (.577 W%), so maybe the team was turning around with or without Lawrie. Maybe the heating up of Eric Thames, Adam Lind, and E-5 were just coincidences of timing. After all, Brad Mills sure hasn’t felt the effects of Lawrie, nor had Jon Rauch (although Lawrie could be so awesome that Rauch’s appendix exploded in excitement – we can’t rule this out).

I’m picking arbitrary end points and using what my eyes have saw and what I assume about sociology to pin the turn around on Lawrie. But it’s not difficult to see how confidence, excitement, or a commitment to full-out effort at all times could be infectious. How could it not be, unless you’re for some reason bitter or just a fuddyduddy? Picture yourself in a situation where those around you are excited and confident, and the impact that would have on your emotional state.

Of course, intangibles aren’t always good. For every good guy in a lockerroom, there’s probably an asshole. And using yourself as an example again, admit that playing and working with assholes sucks, and has an impact on you. Lawrie’s brash confidence could have negative effects, too, especially if other teams take offense to it. Likewise, with Lawrie getting all of the attention of late, there’s the possibility of damaged egos or quiet resentment. These can’t be ruled out either.

And really, that’s the point. Intangibles can never really be ruled out. We know that players in any sport don’t develop in a linear manner, and no one person’s development is the same. Yet we use ZIPS or comparable historical players to project baseball and basketball players and sometimes ignore the context of development.

Football does a better job of this, of course. The third thing mentioned about quarterbacks after arm strength and accuracy is intangibles. In hockey, scouting is based almost entirely on intangibles, how guys can work within the context of the team, if they’re a grinder or a gamer, and so on. Why the dichotomy between the two more physical sports and the two less physical sports? (I am not suggesting the physicality is an answer, I’m merely using it as a grouping for the sports).

The anecdotal history of baseball is filled with tales of personality and intangibles. Ditto for basketball. It’s the Wilt vs. Russel debate. It’s probably also why the Miami Heat didn’t win a title this year despite having two of the best players on the planet.

The point I’m trying to make here is this – I’m a little disappointed in myself when I really think about how I analyze sports (sometimes, I am not universally negligent to the psychological side of sports). I’ve used only a few cherry-picked examples throughout here, but this isn’t meant to be a scientific piece. I’ve written this as a plea to myself to not ignore the personal and emotional aspect of sport as much as I sometimes do. I’m all for VORP and DVOA and Total QBR and Adj+/- and everything else like that, but I need to do a better job of not using these as a crutch for analysis.

Not everything can be explained with a tidy formula. I have to admit to the limitations of measurement. Some things just aren’t tangible.

Just ask me.

Update: At Tao of Stieb, Tao and Chris Jones have a great discussion on the topic worth giving a read.

So, according to this ridiculous “investigative” article from ESPN, the Jays are well-known sign stealers, and use it to an unfair advantage, and everyone knows it.

Well then. 28-27 at home. Ouch.

The article focuses mainly on the 2010 season (the only year that their data supports their theory, completely ignoring that said stats were normal in 2009 [same coaching staff as 2010] and 2011 [if it was working, why stop?]), and blends anecdotes from anonymous sources with manipulatively described statistics to make it seem an obvious conclusion. Because, uhh…they were so good in 2010. Seriously…their home record was better in 2009 with normalized home run rates, and they’ve apparently stopped using the system successfully. Get real.

More or less the only reaction you need to read can be found via Drunk Jays Fans, as Stoeten does his usual good job of ripping a hack writer to shreds. The article also contains some great Twitter quotes from J.P. Arencibia, and some really good comments from readers, some of which I’ll post below, but seriously, go check out their entire piece.

J.P. Arencibia :”Just read the dumbest article on ESPN about us getting signs? I’m hitting 200 and we get signs at home, that makes sense? #clowns”  and “That’s y I love hockey… Say or do something stupid #dropgloves #pro”
DJF Commenter NorthYorkJays: “This is f*****g bullshit. The spot above the pitcher’s head is occupied by 2 f*****g closed off black tarp sections. It’s not possible for the batter to receive these so-called signs without having to ‘even alter his gaze’.”

Seriously, this is ridiculous, and it’s kind of embarrassing that it’s up on ESPN’s main page…or even Bleacher Report. I may follow up on this more later and dig around for some stats, but for now DJF is your source, and I would love to read everyone’s thoughts on this.

Updated Links
Steal of Home uses some game video to determine the quotes in the ESPN article are from the Chicago White Sox, which Jose Bautista has confirmed.

Getting Blanked breaks down the Anthopoulos press conference as it goes down. A few highlights below, but they’re all worth reading…
Dustin Parkes: “After hearing him speak with genuine exasperation over the fact that he’s even addressing the media at all, I feel quite differently. His words and attitude toward delivering those words drained whatever legitimacy that the article clinged to, defended the organization well, and made me think that the press conference was more about honour than optics.”
AA notes:
No general manager has ever suggested anything to Alex Anthopoulos.
Every game is broadcast. Go through the broadcasts and look for a man in a white shirt.
I’ve been in this organization for years, never a phone call, e-mail, text, nothing. We have GM meetings. This would have come up.

And finally, here is Parkes’ take, which he knocks out of the park (because he received signals from a man in the outfield, obviously).

The Toronto Blue Jays have made another roster move with a look towards the future, sending left-handed reliever Wil Ledezma to Triple-A and giving rising-star prospect Henderson Alvarez the call up to the Majors. Alvarez will make his debut Wednesday night at home against Oakland, although his role the rest of the way remains unclear.

It’s a pretty favorable situation to be called up into. With Carlos Villaneuva on the DL with a forearm strain, the team had an open rotation spot, and rather than give it to converted bullpen arms like Jesse Litsch or Luis Perez, they chose to roll the dice and let Alvarez get his feet wet prior to September. Alvarez gets to face a relatively punch-less Oakland lineup that ranks 25th in the Majors in scoring, and is second to last in the American League.

Initially it was thought the spot start would be for Saturday’s game against the Angels, but it could have been pushed to Wednesday for several reasons. Foremost, it allows Alvarez to pitch on his normal rest, a point that shouldn’t be understated when considering the youth and relative inexperience of the player. Additionally, it affords the rest of the rotation (save for Brett Cecil) an extra day of rest, although the team has indicated nobody has a set innings cap to be careful of (except for maybe the DL’d Villaneuva). One odd note about the rotation shuffle is that Alvarez and Mills now pitch on back-to-back days, so if they struggle it could tax the bullpen over a short span, but this is a relatively small concern coming off an off day Monday.

As for Alvarez himself, it might be a case of rushing a prospect to the Majors, as he’s just 21, but I think the context in which he’s been called up should be conducive to success. For one, the team wants to have a longer look at him than a Setpember call-up would afford. While this could be to judge his viability for the 2012 rotation, it could also be to spot areas for him to work on in the offseason, and give him a taste of how his stuff holds up against Major League hitters. Alvarez has more or less dominated at Double-A New Hampshire this year, and the team has been weary in recent years of having young prospects pitch at the band-box in Triple-A Las Vegas, one of the most notorious hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball. In that case, the logic is sound that an audition in the Majors may be more beneficial to Alvarez’s development than continued work at Double-A or a short stint at Triple-A.

And while we can question the theory behind bringing up a 21-year old pitcher who only came onto the near-term radar this season, in terms of performance Alvarez has certainly earned it. The Career Stats table shows his career performance in the Minors, per Fangraphs (unable to post because I’m at work and can’t upload photos, ugh).

Alvarez performed adequately prior to this season, but was not really spectacular enough to warrant excitement, although the scouting reports were positive. This season though, since his Double-A call-up, Alvarez has been lights out, registering a 2.86 ERA, a 3.45 FIP, and a 3.88:1 K:BB ratio, while occasionally hitting triple-digits on the radar gun. You could note that his K rate is a bit below average at 6.7K/9 (especially since velocity tends to correlate to K/9 to a degree), but there are a few mitigating factors in this regard. First, Alvarez faces fewer batters than average over nine innings (his WHIP is just 1.11), which gives him fewer opportunities for strikeouts. Along the same lines, his K% is actually 18.7%, which corresponds to an expected K/9 of roughly 7.3, and is above average. And finally, he can get away with a few less strikeouts, as his miniscule 1.74 BB/9 rate would be around the 95th percentile in the Majors (assuming he could maintain it, which is probably a stretch). It’s possible he should actually try to work out of the zone a bit more and risk a few walks, to keep hitters from making as much contact, but the results seem to indicate he’s doing just fine.

On top of his performance for the year, take a look at his Game Log from the same Fangraphs page.

He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in five straight starts (and a relief appearance), and over that 34.2 inning span he has a K:BB ratio of 29:4, which is just obscene. You can also note that his K/9 rate over that span is 7.5.

So yes, it may be too early for Alvarez, and there may not be any pressing need to call him up, but why not? If the team wants to get a longer look and let him see how his stuff holds up against Major League talent (before the talent pool is contaminated by September call-ups), I can’t really argue. He’s only at 96.1 innings on the year, and in the past two seasons he’s thrown 112.1 and 124.1. You would think the team would want to push him into the 140-150 range (to have him ready for a near full-season workload in 2012), which would mean he could stick with the team through the end of the season (42 innings at six innings per start would be seven starts, or 48 innings would be eight starts, which fits nicely with the team’s 48 remaining games).

To add some further analysis, I took a look around the internet and found some interesting quotes, as shown below. Check back later in the week for a look at other potential August/September call-ups for the Jays.

–

From Keith Law at ESPN.com
On the Future’s Game:
Henderson Alvarez (Toronto) was 93-97 mph with a fringy curveball that had good two-plane break but lacked tight rotation; he didn’t show the plus changeup but located the fastball well. There’s some effort there, but he loads his hips to the point where the hitter can see the Z in “Alvarez” and he also generates tremendous torque to get his arm accelerated. I don’t know why he doesn’t miss more bats, but plus fastball/plus changeup/fringy curveball is still a mid-rotation or better starter in the long term.

In his updated Top-50 Prospects:
#39 – Analysis: Alvarez has No. 1 starter stuff, but as with Casey Kelly, the results don’t quite line up with the scouting report. He’s hit 100 mph as a starter and already has a plus changeup, but there’s effort in that delivery, and he has to show he can miss more bats.Preseason Ranking: NR

From a recent chat:
Randy (Brown)
Wow… Farrel saying today that after skipping Villanueva’s next start that either Perez or Henderson Alvarez will get the call up for the start, way to soon right?
Klaw
I’m not getting the drive to promote Alvarez. Like him a lot as a prospect but he’s not missing a ton of bats.

Via Baseball America, from New Hampshire Pitching Coach Pete Walker
“He has a 98 mph fastball with depth,” Walker said. “It’s pretty fun to watch. Standing behind him in the bullpen watching his stuff, you know it’s special.”
The biggest thing Walker is working with Alvarez on is his breaking ball. Alvarez throws both a curveball and a slider, but neither is an especially good pitch for him yet.

“They’re both works in progress,” Walker said. “Once he really refines his breaking ball he’ll be ready to pitch in the majors and have a lot of success.”

From BlueBird Banter:
I know Alvarez has been lighting up the radar gun this year in the minors, but I am honestly unsure of the massive rush all of a sudden to get this guy to the big leagues. Keith Law in his recent chat indicated that while he liked Alvarez as a prospect but that he isn’t missing a lot of bats at the moment. To me it seems like when the reports came out that this guy hit 100 on the gun that all of sudden everyone wanted him to move up. While I am excited as the next guy to see another prospect I have to wonder if this the right step in his development (Then again who the heck am I to judge).

Hat tip to DJF for the Baseball America and Keith Law chat links. And for the term ‘hat tip,’ I think.

On the odd chance you somehow haven’t heard, Toronto Blue Jays’ top prospect Brett Lawrie made his MLB debut this weekend, joining the big league club for the three-game series in Baltimore. Lawrie, of course, is the Canadian uber-prospect acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason for Shaun Marcum. He is also the most important fantasy add of the season, the future face of the franchise, the man-crush of all baseball-bros, and undisputed king of Edward Forty-Hands.

Hyperbole was out in full force all week in anticipation, but baseball scribes tend to be more low key on the weekend, so you may not have heard about his exploits, baseball or otherwise. Allow me, then, to take you through his debut weekend, play-by-play.

Friday
Pregame: Brett Lawrie arrives at Camden Yards. Upon putting on his #13 jersey, he immediately surpasses Roberto Alomar (coincidentally, #12) as the best Blue Jay of all time.
2nd inning: Lawrie works a 2-2 count and singles up the middle off of Tommy Hunter, scoring Edwin Encarnacion. 2,999 more hits to immortality.
2nd inning: Lawrie commits an error on a Nolan Reimold ground ball, proving he is human after it takes an awkward hop.
4th inning: Lawrie grounds a 3-1 pitch to third base for an out. Related note – Lawrie allegedly gets from home plate to first in under 4.0 seconds, which is obscenely fast for a right handed batter.
6th inning: Lawrie is called out on strikes after watching five pitches from Troy Patton. Good to see some patience in what was probably a nerve-filled debut. Take notes, Travis Snider.
6th inning: Lawrie deflects a ball hit by Matt Wieters (who, despite these facts, has nothing on Lawrie) to Yunel Escobar, but runners are safe all around. Lawrie then fields a Reimold grounder, throwing to Aaron Hill to retire Wieters at second.
8th inning: Lawrie pulls a 1-0 Chris Jakubauskas offering into left field for a single but Colby Rasmus is thrown out at home trying to score from second.
Review: Lawrie goes 2/4 with an RBI, a K, and an error. After the game, JP Arencibia, Ricky Romero, and Brett Cecil give him the treatment pictured above, and he handles himself with an obvious but respectful confidence in post-game interviews. Despite claiming the contrary, we all know that he is, in fact, the saviour.

Saturday
Pregame: With some of the excitement having worn off, Lawrie is given some reprieve when the mob of reporters only reaches double digits instead of triple digits. Brett Lawrie jerseys are on back order.
3rd inning: Lawrie pulls a hard grounder to third on a 1-1 93 MPH fastball from Chris Tillman for an out.
3rd inning: Reimold, who has a thing for grounders to Brett, sends another one his way, and Lawrie makes a throw on the move to retire him with ease.
5th inning: Wieters pops out in foul territory to Lawrie, and it’s pretty clear at this point who the better demigod is.
6th inning: Lawrie battles back from 0-2 to 2-2 against Tillman and pulls a groundball through the left side for a single.
6th inning: Nick Markakis pops out in foul ground to Brett…obviously, he played a lot of “500” growing up, as he handles these pop-ups like a pro.
8th inning: Jim Johnson strikes Lawrie out with four pitches, all fastballs taken by Lawrie. It’s possible he may have been too patient on his two strikeouts thus far, but the club has preached plate discipline to him at Triple-A, so this is much better than the opposite issue.
Review: Lawrie goes 1-for-3 with a strikeout. Obviously not a flashy second game, but at this point it’s clear he can handle himself with the bat and has the plate discipline lacking in some of the other 2011 call-ups (Snider, Thames, Cooper).

Sunday
Pregame: After a miserable 1-for-3 performance, Lawrie was looking to bounce back and remind everyone that he is The Man (Wooo!).
1st inning: Robert Andino grounds out to Lawrie, who makes the throw with his eyes closed and with his left hand.
2nd inning: Groundballs from Vlad Guerrero and Reimold (again), ho hum.
3rd inning: Working a 2-1 count against Alfredo Simon, Lawrie lines a two-seamer the opposite way for a single, scoring on Jose Bautista’s double later in the frame.
4th inning: With a runner on second, Lawrie sends a 2-2 slider to mid center field, moving Johnny Mac to 3rd (but it won’t be a Sac Fly, for the record)
6th inning: Lawrie swings-and-misses on an apparent hit-and-run, and Johnny Mac is thrown out at second. What a shame, because two pitches later Lawrie dumps a 2-1 fastball into the right-center field seats, taking Simon opposite field for the first of what will surely be at least 500 career homers. This shot chases Simon from the game and gives the Jays a 6-1 lead.
7th inning: Old buddy Nolan Reimold grounds to Lawrie for the 5th time this weekend, and for the 4th time Brett handles it with no issues.
8th inning: Lawrie chops a 1-0 fastball back to pitcher Brad Bergesen for a fielder’s choice. Really thought they’d give him a chance to take second here, but they spared Wieters the embarrassment.
8th inning: Two more ground balls, two more outs. Seems Lawrie is comfortable after the initial blip on Friday.
Review: The first major league homerun will obviously stick out, on top of which Lawrie looked very comfortable in the field, and added a single. He was more aggressive at the plate today, and while he saw fewer pitches overall, he seemed ready to jump on good offerings early.

Weekend Totals: 5/11, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 2 K, 1 E (and if it matters in this small of a sample size, it’s a slash line of .455/.455/.727/1.182 OPS)

In all seriousness, it was a phenomenal debut weekend for Lawrie. It’s usually impossible for any prospect to meet the hype associated with their debut, but Lawrie delivered across the board. He appears to be everything the franchise has been toting him as – hardworking, disciplined, exceptionally talented, and with a mature but obvious confidence that will hopefully infect the clubhouse as the young core matures together. It seems (via Twitter) like he’s bonded with several of the young guys in the clubhouse, and while care-free would be going too far, a fun and supportive clubhouse is one best suiting a young up-and-coming team, in my opinion.

After months of speculating and mining Triple-A box scores, it’s exciting to finally have a chance to view the future of the Blue Jays in the present.

I’d assume, also, that no lineup spot is out of the question once John Farrell feels he’s comfortable with the big club…that bat will play at any lineup spot, and the #2 and #5 holes seem like potential long-term settling places (he hit 9th this weekend).

For the second time this season and the fourth time in the past three years, the Blue Jays have optioned Travis Snider to the minors.

Ugh.

Now, the club certainly has its reasons for this, some of which I can’t put forth a compelling argument against. Still though, it rings wildly counterproductive for a team in the later stages of a rebuild to not give ample opportunity to a 23-year old former top prospect.

The Timeline
June 2006: Snider is selected 14th overall by the Jays.
August 29, 2008: Snider debuts with the Jays after posting an .838 OPS across three minor league levels, including 23 home runs, as a 20-year old. He is the youngest player in the majors at the time.
Spring 2009: Snider is ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball by Baseball America, up from #11 the year before.
April 2009: Snider makes the team out of training camp at just 21 years of age, quite possibly too early, with too little high-minors seasoning (hindsight is 20/20, of course).
May 2009: Snider is optioned to the minors for the first time after struggling with a .686 OPS through 32 games. Looks like a simple case of too much, too soon.
August 2009: Snider is recalled after raking at Triple-A Las Vegas with a 1.094 OPS and 14 home runs in 48 games. Snider plays adequately down the stretch for the Jays with a .788 OPS, including an inspiring 22 walks in 45 games.
Spring 2010: Snider makes the team out of training camp, still just 22 years old. After a sub-par April (.155 AVG, .615 OPS), Snider goes into the hottest stretch of his career with a 1.115 OPS in 12 May games before suffering an untimely wrist injury.
July/August 2010: Snider returns but has clearly lost something. He spends 20 days at Double-A, including 13 of which were not part of his rehab assignment (DJF explains why this may or may not be important. Kind of.). His numbers weren’t spectacular, but he earned a call back to the majors regardless.
September 2010: Snider tricks us all into being optimistic by having a successful, if not spectacular, September, posting an .863 OPS.

Now, at the end of 2010, Snider had been through a rollercoaster across minor league levels. He had MLB seasonal WARs of 0.3 (2008), -0.1 (2009), and 1.3 (2010). His September was cause for optimism, and with Alex Anthopoulos and John Farrell committing to a true rebuild, there was every indication Snider would be given the chance (and the patience) to cement his place as the everyday left fielder of the future. However…

April 28, 2011: Snider is optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas after opening the season hitting .184 and seemingly opening his body up and being out on his front foot, swinging one-handed, at every single pitch. His mechanics were out of line, yes, but this was hardly the fair chance management had publically committed to giving him.
July 3, 2011: Snider is recalled and goes on a hot streak upon rejoining the team. The team experiments with him in center field, and he shows some promise there, while also showing improved wheels and instincts on the base paths.
August 4, 2011: Snider is optioned to Triple-A once again, this time to make room for Brett Lawrie. More obvious than Snider’s .760 July OPS (not bad at all) was his single solitary walk in over 100 plate appearances, to go with 33 strikeouts. Obviously, Snider had lost any semblance of discipline (pressing!), surprising given his modest 7.5% career walk rate (which was even higher in the minors).

So once again Snider is in the minors, destined to remain there until rosters expand in September.

He really doesn’t have anything left to prove there, but the Jays have a few logical reasons for the move, I suppose…

Chad Motolla: Apparently Triple-A hitting coach Motolla knows Snider’s swing and tendencies well, and may be in the best position to work with him. I’d ask why MLB hitting coach Dwayne Murphy couldn’t do it, but I’m not sure I’d want to know the answer.

Eric Thames: Yes, Thames has outplayed Snider this year, both in the Majors (.778 OPS to .616, 0.8 WAR to 0.2 in nearly equal playing time) and the Minors (1.033 OPS to .890). While some of his performance is fueled by luck or the friendly confines in Vegas, Snider has been afforded those same opportunities. Thames can’t defend like Snider (that’s not a compliment to Snider), but his left-handed bat may end up being just as good. Keith Law thinks Thames is a fourth outfielder at best, which would mean Snider has more upside, but you can’t blame the team for wanting an extended look.

Edwin Encarnacion: Edwin is nearing the threshold of becoming a Type-B free agent, which would mean if he signs elsewhere, the Jays would receive a compensation pick after the first round in next year’s draft. To improve his standing, he needs playing time, and with the Colby Rasmus acquisition and Lawrie’s recall there is a logjam with Thames, Edwin, Rajai Davis, and Snider for just the LF/DH spots. I question whether it is worth messing around with a potential high-upside player just to possibly get a compensation pick, who may or may not ever turn into anything, but at least there is a tangible reason here. On top of which, E5 has been stroking, and maybe the team is thinking he could be post-deadline waiver-trade fodder, bringing back an asset more secure than “maybe a compensation pick, if Edwin continues to play well and declines arbitration.”

Travis Snider: Ahh yes, Snider himself is to blame. He took the demotion like a professional and put the onus on himself to simply perform better when given the opportunity. I can’t say I disagree with him, but it still seems short-sighted to me (as it did in 2009 and 2010) to Yo-Yo Snider instead of giving him a sample size large enough to establish a set level of production in the Majors (319 is his career-high in MLB plate appearances.

At this point, it’s possible the team is trying to do many things at once – look at Thames, fix Snider, get an asset for Edwin – but I don’t have to like it. I’m all for meritocracies, but when a team like this is in the later stages of rebuilding, exceptions can be made for developing prospects, obviously.

I am still holding out hope and optimism that Snider can rebuild his swing and develop into the player he was projected to be. His glove and arm can play in left or right, he adds some deceptive value with his legs, and he’s still just 23 years old. In 2010 he posted a 105 WRC+ (meaning he created 5% more runs than the league average), so at times his bat has played, too. He was only worth 0.2 WAR this year, and that was dragged down significantly by his bat (-6.5 runs), so yes, he has flaws, and work needs to be done. Hopefully Motolla and Snider can right the ship and Snider is afforded another opportunity down the road, because I’m not willing to give up on a 23-year old leftie who has succeeded at every level of the minors.

Note: I just want to be clear – this is not to say I don’t like Thames, because I really really do. I think Snider’s upside is higher, but Thames deserves a chance. I would probably have had Thames DH, Snider play left, and Edwin lose out on at bats, even if he has performed well. Also, I’m really f-ing stoked for the Brett Lawrie Era.