Note: Updated Sep 13 for Monday Night games.

The hope is that this will be a weekly Monday column for me throughout the football season, analyzing the prior day’s NFL games with an eye towards the fantasy implications. Over the next couple of weeks I will probably toy with the format a great deal, and I’d love to get some feedback on the format and content. As it stands, I’ll briefly run through all the games from Sunday’s slate, noting significant performances and how the result compared to the spread and over/under. I’ll then hit up any injury notes, and any recommended fantasy action by position at the end.

So far for Week 1, I’m 10-6 in my picks but lost my survivor team (Week 1!!) in the Cleveland Browns. It looks like I’ll go 2-1 in fantasy match-ups, and come out down a small amount on the gambling front. All of that is, of course, a warning that any recommendations should be analyzed through your own, hopefully more successful, interpretation. Not that 10-6 and 2-1 isn’t good, I just mean….uhh, Cleveland. C’mon Son.

Green Bay 42, New Orlenas 34
Gambling: GB -4.0, GB -220, Over 47
Fantasy: Your standard big games for two high-profile offenses. James Starks (12-57-TD) looked significantly better than Ryan Grant (9-40 ground, 1-5 air), and was more or less publically promised more touches moving forward after the game. John Kuhn (2-5-TD ground, 2-7 air) looms as a goal-line menace, though. Mark Ingram (13-40) paced the Saints on the ground but was largely ineffective, while Pierre Thomas (5-31, 4-37) and Darren Sproles (2-7, 7-75, PR TD) were heavily featured in the passing game. Sproles caught and returned his way into flex consideration moving forward with a ridiculous all-around performance. Outside of the fantasy buffet, the big news was Marques Colston‘s (6-81-FUM) injury, which could keep him sidelined for upwards of a month and should move Devery Henderson (6-100-TD) up the Week 2 rankings.

Philadelphia 31, St. Louis 13
Gambling: Ph -4.0, Phi -220, O/U 44 push
Fantasy: Mike Vick (14/32-187-2TD-FUM passing, 10-98 rushing) didn’t exactly go video gaming, but that line will suffice in any league. DeSean Jackson (6-102-TD) and Shady McCoy (15-122-TD ground, 2-15-TD air) were the beneficiaries as usual, while Jeremy Maclin (1-20) and Brent Celek (1-13) were quiet. This will be the standard for the Eagles, with better performances in the cards for Maclin. The Rams were hurt by an early Steven Jackson (2-56-TD) injury, an apparently minor Sam Bradford (17/30-188-FUM, -15 yards rushing somehow) injury, and an apparently severe Danny Amendola (5-45) injury. Lance Kendricks (1-18) disappointed (so much for the hype). If Jackson misses time, Cadillac Williams (19-91 ground, 6-49 air) filled in admirably but lacks Jackson’s upside.

Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7
Gambling: Buf +5.5, Buf +200, Over 40
Fantasy: Ryan Fitzpatrick (17/25-208-4TD), ladies and gentlemen! It could have been 5TDs if Brad Smith (0/1-INT, 3-6 rushing) hadn’t thrown a red-zone interception out of the Wildcat. Harvard spread the love around, making useful commodities out of David Nelson (4-66), Stevie Johnson (4-66-TD, why so serious?), and tight end Scott Chandler (5-63-2TD, who?), while Fred Jackson (20-112 ground, 1-5 air) kept the ground game relevant. Interesting to note that with the game in hand, it was Johnny White (8-26) and not C.J. Spiller (5-16-TD ground, 1-5 air) who got the bulk of the time-killing carries. The Chiefs, meanwhile, couldn’t get anything going at all, in any form. Jamaal Charles (10-56-FUM ground, 5-9-TD air) was criminally underused, as usual, although Thomas Jones (2-3) wasn’t at fault. Matt Cassel struggled in a big way (22/36-119-TD-INT, that’s 3.3 YPA), while the only even remotely bright spot was Dexter McCluster‘s (4-42-FUM ground, 5-25 air, 92 RET) all-around play. It looks like KC, and not the Bills, may be a team to pick on this year.

Chicago 30, Atlanta 12
Gambling: Chi +2.0, Chi +115, Over 40.5
Fantasy: This one shocked me, as I definitely didn’t expect Jay Cutler (22/32-312-2TD-INT) to be this good, or Matt Ryan (31/47-319-INT) to be this bad. Maybe it was Week 1 jitters, but these teams looked the exact opposite of what I expected from them this year. Michael Turner (10-100-FUM ground, 3-40 air) lead the way for the Falcons, while Roddy White (8-61) and Tony Gonzalez (5-72) did their thing. Rookie Julio Jones (5-72) impressed as well. The Bears ran mostly when the lead got big, and Matt Forte (16-68 ground, 5-90-TD) was only noticable in the pass game, while Kahlil Bell (10-24) filled in for the injured Marion Barber in the most mediocre way possible. No receivers stepped up, with Devin Hester (3-60-FUM), Johnny Knox (3-60), and the apparently-not-useless Roy Williams (4-55) sharing the workload.

Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20
Gambling: Det +1.0, Det +105, Over 41
Fantasy: And this is why people get excited about Matthew Stafford (24/33-305-3TD-INT) playing a full season healthy. Fellow break-out candidate Josh Freeman (28/43-257-TD-INT, 4-26 rushing) couldn’t lead a non-existant running game with a 6.0 YPA, making it a relatively empty 20-point team performance in fantasy terms. LeGarrette Blount (5-15) was never given a chance to get going, and Earnest Graham (6-13 ground, 8-58 air, apparently still alive) actually had more touches. Freeman hooked up with Graham most frequently, though Mike Williams (4-50-TD) and Soldier Winslow (6-66) were fantasy relevant, and Arrelious Benn (4-27) and undrafted sophomore Preston Parker (4-44-FUM) gave us a reason to add them to the watch list. Stafford, obviously, favored Megatron (6-88-2TD), who was his usual phenomenal self, including a TD catch that was simply impossible to defend. Brandon Pettigrew (4-57) dropped an easy TD, hurting his line, and Nate Burleson (5-60) provided the last of the fantasy value. Jahvid Best (21-72 ground, 4-42 air) didn’t fall apart with 25 touches, and Jerome Harrison (8-27) didn’t do anything to demand more of a role, both of which are positive signs for Best’s owners, I suppose.

Jacksonville 16, Tennessee 14
Gambling: Depending on when you bet, this could have been Jax +2.5 all the way to Ten -1, Under 37
Fantasy: Not exactly a fantasy smorgasboard, Luke McCown (17/24-175-FUM) and Matt Hasselbeck (21/34-263-2TD-INT) succeeded in staying off the fantasy radar. Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew (24-97-TD ground) and Kenny Britt (5-136-2TD), nobody really made a case for fantasy relevance. That said, Deji Karim (14-33 ground, 3-39 air) will be worth a watch if he continues to get that many touches, while Mike Thomas (8-55) and Nate Washington (6-67) could have value as occasional flex plays, especially if you have Thomas in a PPR league. Chris Johnson (9-24 ground, 6-25 air) really could have used training camp reps, it seems.

Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 17
Gambling: Cin +6.5, Cin +230, Over 35.5, killed my survivor pool
Fantasy: It’s not very often a team can benefit from a QB going down, but the Bengals lost Andy Dalton (10/15-81-TD) and were able to turn to Bruce Gradkowski‘s (5/12-92-TD) steady hand down the stretch, and while QB Rating shows Dalton was a bit better, ESPN’s more accurate QBR liked Gradkowski. You shouldn’t be starting either of these guys, so let’s move on. CedBen (25-121-TD ground, 1-2 air) did most of his damage securing the win late, stealing the fantasy thunder from rookie AJ Green‘s (1-41-TD) go-ahead TD with the Browns still in a huddle and Jermaine Gresham‘s (6-58-TD) inaugration as a post-hype sleeper. For the Browns, calling Colt McCoy (19/40-213-2TD-INT) bad does a disservice to bad QBs, but he was under pretty constant pressure. I still believe, though you obviously have to downgrade him to a degree. The ground game couldn’t get anything going either, as Peyton Hillis (17-57 ground, 6-30 air) was kept flex-less. The TEs dominated the passing game as Ben Watson (3-45-TD) and Evan Moore (3-35-TD) got the endzone love and only Mohammed Massaquoi (3-77) was semi-useful from the receiving corps. Unrelated to fantasy, go out of your way to find a highlight of Greg Little’s block on a Josh Cribbs return…he hit the defender so hard he knocked Cribbs down as well.

Baltimore 35, Pittsburgh 7
Gambling: Bal -1.5, Bal -125, Over 36
Fantasy: WHAT? Really? I sincerely hope Big Ben (22/41-280-TD-3INT-2FUM) never has another game like this, or my season(s) could be sunk. Joe Flacco (17/29-224-3TD) put on a clinic on the other side, and the Ravens didn’t take their foot off the gas until very late, clearly trying to send a message. Rashard Mendenhall (12-45-FUM) was likewise shutdown, and only Hines Ward (5-67, at 959 receptions for his career) and Mike Wallace (8-107) put up useful lines. Every Raven but Lee Evans (0-0) had a good time, lead by Anquan Boldin (4-74-TD on a great Flacco pass) and sophomore tight end Ed Dickson (5-59-TD). Ricky Williams got clock-killing work only (12-63) so Ray Rice (19-107-TD ground, 4-42-TD air) owners should fret in the least. Waka Flacco Flame, indeed.

Houston 34, Indianapolis 7
Gambling: Hou -9, Hou -425, Under 43.5
Fantasy: I feel bad for anyone who bet the over, as Kerry Collins (16/31-197-TD-2FUM) really put the screws to you. That was just an all-time bad performance, a 2.3 on ESPN’s QBR scale. Whether it was his fault or the line’s fault, every Colt save for Reggie Wayne (7-106-TD) was held in check, to the point they’re not even worth mentioning. Okay, it’s worth noting in a blow-out loss that Delone Carter (7-25) almost matched Joseph Addai (8-39 ground, 2-13 air) for touches. There’s a reason Yahoo’s Roto Arcade rated Houston #1 on it’s Juggernaut Index, as they provided robust stat lines at every position, even without Arian Foster. Ben Tate (24-116-TD-FUM) made a case for a role even when Foster returns, while Derrick Ward (11-39-TD) was, well, there, and Steve Slaton (2-12 ground, 1-6 air), uhh, didn’t fumble. Andre Johnson (7-95-TD) remains a top-5 receiver, and Jacoby Jones (3-43) may need to be dusted off with news of a Kevin Walter (1-14) injury.

Washington 28, NY Giants 14
Gambling: Was +3, Was +130, Over 38
Fantasy: Rex Grossman (21/34-305-2TD) back in our lives can’t be a bad thing. He spread the ball around well but still managed to be sacked 4 times by a Giants line missing Justin Tuck and Osi-U. Tim Hightower (25-72-TD ground, 3-25 air) wasn’t as lucky, though nobody else got more than a touch, so his role seems secure for now. Fantasy Fred Davis (5-105) is back in our lives, too, while Chris Cooley (2-21) works his way back to 100%. Santana Moss (6-76) had his usual solid performance, but Jabar Gafffney (3-54-TD) got the glory. On the other side, Eli Manning (18/32-268-INT) looked like the Eli I know and loathe, rendering everyone but Hakeem Nicks (7-122) irrelevant. Ahmad Bradhsaw (13-44-TD) would have been useless except for his score, and he didn’t bust a run greater than 7 yards all day. If/When the D gets healthy the Giants should still be decent, but until then they may be an exploitable pass defense (if you don’t get deducted for sacks, which the Giants system could produce with me as a pass-rushing end, it seems).

San Diego 24, Minnesota 17
Gambling: Min +8.5, SD -400, Under 41.5
Fantasy: 39 yards, Donovan McNabb (7/15-39-TD-INT, 3-32 rushing), really? Nobody could have predicted anything close to that for McNabb, and it’s a minor miracle the Vikings stayed in the game. Adrian Peterson (16-98 ground, 2-6 air) did his best, but it was Percy Harvin (4-15 ground, 2-7 air, KR TD) who was the biggest help, starting the game off with a 103-yard run-back. Yes, the Chargers will apparently be hurt by special teams play even under the new kick-off rules. Philip Rivers (33/48-335-2TD-2INT) wasn’t at his best and got a bit unlucky, and was also seen yelling at Norv Turner after one drive stalled. Clearly a frustrating first half for him. Ryan Mathews (12-45 ground, 3-73 air) and Mike Tolbert (12-35-TD ground, 9-58-2TD air) were far more useful in the pass game than the rushing attack, taking a lot of the action away from V-Jax (2-31) and any receiver not named Antonio Gates (8-74, still a boss). I expect more from everyone involved next week, save for Fat Tolbert.

Arizona 28, Carolina 21
Gambling: Arz -6.5, Arz -310, Over 37
Fantasy: Cam Newton (24/37-422-2TD-INT, 8-18-TD rushing) was your story of the day without question, getting it done with his arm much more than his legs. Not a single person can say they saw this record-setting performance coming, not even The Great Matt Rego. Newton rendered the run game unimportant, as DeAngelo Williams (12-30, 1-6) and Jonathan Stewart (7-26, 2-14) both struggled. Steve Smith (8-178-2TD) was the big winner. He’s a fantasy starter until proven otherwise, but I’d be more cautious with Brandon LaFell (4-70) moving forward. All that action, and they lost. Kevin Kolb (18/27-309-2TD-FUM) did just enough for the win, but barely edged Luke McCown in QBR (44-43), not a promising start to his Cardinals career despite the 300+ yards. Beanie Wells (18-90-TD, 4-12) didn’t give anyone a stroke (…yet), and he was joined in relevance by Early Doucet (3-105-TD). Larry Fitzgerald (3-62) was doubled for most of the game, but Chris Gamble should be commended for his strong coverage as well. I’d expect he and Kolb to get on the same page within the next few weeks, so don’t panic.

San Francisco 33, Seattle 17
Gambling: SF -5.5, SF -245, Over 37.5
Fantasy: How mad was I when Tarvaris Jackson (21/37-197-2TD-INT-2FUM, 4-13 rushing) and Alex Smith (15/20-124, 7-22-TD rushing) took part in a game that beat the teased Over mark of 43.5? Very. But I suppose I should blame Ted Ginn (KR TD, PR TD) and only Ted Ginn. I actually like Smith compared to most, but this is a low-yield offense lead by Frank Gore (22-59, 3-19) most days. Vernon Davis (5-47) is a great safety blanket to have, but I’d hope Smith can work in Michael Crabtree (1-4) more as (if?) he gets healthy. For the ‘Hawks, Beast Mode (13-33, 2-14) faced stacked boxes for a lot of the day (“Who you tellin?”), forcing Jackson to pass way more than is ideal. Doug Baldwin (4-83-TD) was the biggest and lone beneficiary. When Seattle plays, nobody wins.

NY Jets 27, Dallas 24
Gambling: Dal +5.5, NYJ -250, Over 40.5
Fantasy: Let’s get this out of the way first – Darelle Revis is the man. Antonio Cromartie is good, but Revis is this defense. Dez Bryant (3-71-TD) was a problem until Revis switched on to him, at which point Miles Austin (5-90-TD) went from a non-entity to a problem in his own right. You can’t ask Revis to cover Jason Witten (6-110) too, but if you asked, he’d do just fine. Tony Romo (23/36-342-2TD-INT-FUM) actually had a decent day despite Revis’ presence, but was fooled by a scheme-trap where he read blitz and the Jets dropped into Cover-5, leading to a Revis INT and Jets game-winning FG. Felix Jones (17-44-TD-FUM, 3-22) was barely a rumor, as the Jets run-D looked in mid-season form. The Jets offense, however, struggled until it mattered in the 4th quarter. Mark Sanchez (26/44-335-2TD-INT-FUM) had to pass more than you’d expect but found Plaxico Burress (4-72-TD) for a 26yard TD early in the 4th. The Jets then blocked a punt for a TD, though nobody’s getting fantasy love for that one. Shonn Greene (10-26, 1-7) and LDT (5-16, 6-73) split the workload out of the backfield, while Santonio Holmes (6-70) and Dustin Keller (5-61-TD, completely uncovered on the TD) chipped in as well.

New England 38, Miami 24
Gambling: NE -6.5, NE -330, Over 45.5
Fantasy: Tom Brady (32/48-528-4TD-INT) is an absolute monster…and a handsome monster at that. What a performance, the 5th highest passing yards total in NFL history. Everyone on the Patriots benefited, including Wes Welker (8-160-2TD, ridiculous 99-yard TD), Aaron Hernandez (7-103-TD), Deion Branch (7-93), and Rob Gronkowski (6-86-TD). Those two tight ends are both phenomenal. Rest assured this isn’t a New Orleans style offense – Brady will spread the ball around, yes, but everyone should have week-to-week value, unless your last name is OchoCinco (1-14). Danny Woodhead (14-69, 1-6) outpaced BJGE (7-34-TD) for touches but the Law Firm got the goal-line work. For the Dolphins, Chad Henne (30/49-416-2TD-INT, 7-59-TD rushing) was actually quite good, and had a beautiful TD on a QB Draw play to boot. Like Brady, he spread the ball around, helping out owners of Brandon Marshall (7-139), Davone Bess (5-92), Anthony Fasano (5-82, unbelievable 1st quarter catch), and Reggie Bush (11-38, 9-56-TD), who of course was only useful in the passing game.

Oakland 23, Denver 20
Gambling: Oak +3, Oak +145, Over 40.5
Fantasy: It was a very empty game for fantasy purposes, with 1 of the game’s 4 TDs coming in the return game (Eric Decker with a 90-yd PR TD, plus 3-53 receiving), and one coming on a rush by universally un-started Jason Campbell (13/22-105-TD, 6-2-TD rushing), while Campbell’s passing TD went to a fullback. Run-DMC (22-150, 1-6) had a huge game but was kept off the scoreboard, while Knowshon Moreno (8-22-FUM, 2-35) continued to disappoint. Brandon Lloyd (6-89) was the only receiver for either team worth owning. Man, am I glad I cut bait in the 1st and went to sleep.

Gambling Notes
*12 games went Over, 3 Under, and 1 push
*Home teams went 8-8 ATS
*Home teams went 10-6 overall
*Favorites went 8-8 ATS
*Favorites went 10-6 overall
*Home-’Dogs went 2-2 ATS and overall
*ESPN’s AccuScore program went 10-6 overall but just 7-9 ATS, while its TeamRanking feature went 11-5 overall and 8-8 ATS
*I went 10-6 ATS, a successful first week

Injuries
Maruqes Colston (upwards of a month), Kevin Walter (8+ weeks), and Danny Amendola (8+ weeks) had the most serious injuries, while we await status updates on Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson (hopefully you’re not waiting for word on Andy Dalton). Man, bad day for the Rams. The Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry for the year, which will have an enormous impact on a defense that looked awful on Sunday. The Panthers also lost Jon Beason for the year, and the Chargers lost #1-ranked fantasy kicker Nate Kaeding on the season’s opening kick-off.

Fantasy Pick-Ups
(Under 50% Yahoo ownership)
QB – Cam Newton is obviously worth a speculative add, but I wouldn’t be starting him just yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t look quite as much like a 1-year fluke as he may have before this week. Play the match-ups with Rex Grossman if you dare.
RB – Ben Tate is a must-own for any Arian Foster owner, and a lottery ticket for anyone else. Cadillac is worth a test-drive (get it?) in the event Jackson’s injury is a long one. Dexter McCluster is an interesting “watch” item for another week. He’s at 60% ownership, so he doesn’t fit the 50% note above, but if Darren Sproles is available for you, by all means get on board.
WR – Randall Cobb and Ted Ginn will be on the radar for any league that counts return yards, but I’m not sure how consistent they’re production will be – I generally don’t chase special teams TDs. Devery Henderson should be owned almost everywhere as a speculative add until we see how Drew Brees will distribute Colston’s touches. I have Early Doucet and Doug Baldwin in the watch category for now, but some will no doubt jump on Doucet as a post-hype sleeper, especially if he’s declared the official #2 over Andre Roberts any time this week. Jacoby Jones, while we’ve been here before, should see more targets with Walter out.
TE – The position is too fickle to really make one-week judgments, but Ed Dickson looks to be for real. I can’t recommend Scott Chandler, but Fantasy Fred Davis and Benjamin Watson are both worth a watch in deeper or 2-TE leagues.

Alright, that’s it for this week. Please give me some feedback, in comments or privately, about the format and content for this weekly column. I want this to be a first-stop on Mondays for fantasy owners and those who missed Sunday’s games.

For the first time, I’m going to try and post a weekly picks column on Friday or Saturday of each week. The lines will generally come from Bet365, my online sports book of choice, and will be pulled the day I write the column (I will make note if I jumped on an exceptionally juicy line earlier in the week and saw it move). For Week 1 in a post-lockout year, we’re all pretty clueless, but a decent track record the past two seasons and a plethora of pre-bet reading has me fairly confident in my first set of published picks. Take a look after the jump to see my picks against the spread (“ATS”) for each game, a brief explanation of my logic, and any other bets (over/under, money line, teasers, etc) I found to be particularly enticing this week.

2010 Record ATS: 139-117 (54.3%)
2009 Record ATS: 135-121 (52.7%)

Note: All spreads and over/under odds are “-110” (bet $110 to profit $100, or, “bet $110 to win $210”) unless otherwise noted.

Picks Against the Spread
Green Bay -4.0 vs. New Orleans – Yes, this pick is technically late, but I did grab the Packers. Odd story – I woke up Friday thinking the Saints had scored and failed to convert on the 2-point , only to realize at 8am the Pack had covered.
Baltimore -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh – As even a match-up as they come, AccuScore has the Ravens as a 0.1 point favorite. This close, I’ll take the team hosting the home opener and cross my fingers. There you go, Dave.
Tampa Bay -1.0 (-115) vs. Detroit – Tampa was initially a 3-point favorite but the public seems to be behind the Lions as a break-out team. I can’t disagree for the season, but I don’t have the Bucs pegged to regress as much as some, and think they’ll handle things at home.
Atlanta -2.0 @ Chicago – I’m midget-low on the Bears this year, even if my dad did inexplicably tap them for his survivor pick this week. Soulja Field Tell Em can be a tough place to open, but the Falcons are a significantly better team.
Kansas City -5.5 vs. Buffalo – I’ve seen a couple projections tabbing KC as favored by exactly 5 points, but I’m giving them the benefit of the extra half point. Maybe it’s because I was at Arrowhead this summer (and enjoyed a tailgate in the shared parking lot of Kauffman Stadium), or because I’m a happy Jamaal Charles owner, but I like KC by a TD.
Houston -9.0 vs. Indianapolis – This is one of the toughest lines of the week, because we have no idea how Kerry Collins will handle the Colts offense. The Texans upgraded a league-worst pass defense, but may also struggle with a new defensive system, and Arian Foster is banged up. Still, the Texans have the RB stable to exploit the Colts’ weak run-D all day, and I can see Collins being serviceable, but unable to keep up if it becomes a shootout.
Philadelphia -4.0 @ St. Louis – It seems like people got tired of hearing about the Eagles and began to undervalue them for Week 1 out of spite. This team is loaded, and even though they’re introducing some new parts, the system and offense have continuity, while the Rams are employing a new offense. I like the Rams for the year but this line is too small.
Cleveland -6.5 vs. Cincinatti – Andy Dalton! I’m high on the Browns to finish as a mid-level team this year, improved on both sides of the ball, and I have the Bengals pegged for a photo finish in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. The Browns got the nod as my survivor pick as well.
Tennessee +2.5 @ Jacksonville – My Jaguars were originally 3-point favorites, and I thought the line may move all the way to a pick-em with the David Garrard release (An aside: I hated Garrard. Like, Vince Carter hate). Tennessee is a better team on both sides of the ball, I think, and the Jags have one of the worst home field advantages in the league. CJ2K may be rusty, and Hasselbeck may we working with a partial playbook, but I don’t see my boys doing enough through the air to test the Titans’ D. It will definitely be interesting, as a Jags fan, to see how the offense adapts and whether the new additions on defense can help improve on that side of the ball.
Washington +3.0 (-120) – The Giants are seriously beaten down with injuries already, and now Justin Tuck may not play due to a neck injury. The Redskins aren’t that bad, I don’t think, and everyone knows I don’t think highly of Eli, especially after a bad preseason. A Home-‘Dog getting a field goal against an injury-ravaged opponent? Sold.
Carolina +6.5 (-105) @ Arizona – I think the Cardinals will be improved, but they’ll probably need more than 7 weeks to mesh together. The Panthers should improve simply by being healthy and removing Jimmy Claussen from the equation, though I’m not high on them for the year overall. I’m banking on a close game, and will take the points.
San Francisco -5.5 vs. Seattle – The Seahawks? C’mon Son. The 49ers may still be learning under yet another new regime, but at this point they must be used to constant change. The Niners underperformed last year and return most of their key players. Most hate on Alex Smith, but I’ll take him and Frank Gore less a touchdown against T-Jax and Beast Mode any day.
San Diego -8.5 vs. Minnesota – Admittedly, I’d be more comfortable if the line was just a touchdown, but I think the Chargers are going to be really good. I feel like Adrian Peterson may have an Eff You season coming to remind everyone who the best running back in the league has been for the past half-decade, but he can’t hang with Rivers (without a MASH-unit receiving core, no less) alone.
Dallas +5.5 @ NY Jets – The Battle of the Ryans may lend itself to a defensive battle, which obviously favors the Jets, but also favors a tight game. The Cowboys are missing some pieces in the secondary but will probably focus on stopping the run anyway, while the Cowboys have enough offensive weapons to keep it close, even with Revis Island and Cromartie Cove present.
New England -6.5 (-115) @ Miami – Continuity rules post-lockout, or so I’ve read. Nothing says continuity like the Patriots. And nothing says mediocrity like the Miami Dolphins.
Oakland +3.0 @ Denver – The line has actually moved to favor Denver since the start of the season (basically when Kyle Orton was assured the starting gig), but it’s moved to the point where I like the Raiders now. I’m not sure yet how John Fox’s system will be altered with the personnel in Denver (I don’t like Knowshon Moreno), and I don’t see the improved run-D keeping Run-DMC in check.

I only took 5 underdogs, took 7 road teams, and only jumped on 1 of 4 Home-‘Dogs. I generally look at these ratios just to get a feel for how I leaned, but I’ll rarely go back and change picks just to balance home/road or underdog/favorite.

Other Bets for Week 1
Tennessee +105 – At +1.0, you get a small premium (+105 instead of +100) to give up the point.
Oakland +145 – as outlined above, I think they can take the Broncos straight-up.
Houston/Indianapolis Over 43.5 – A good offense, two bad defenses, and a huge question mark offense. The Texans generally played high-scoring games last year, and if Collins manages to do just decent, this one could climb in a hurry.
San Fran/Seattle Under 37.5 – Look at the QB match-up.

Teaser Options for Week 1
2-team 6-point teasers generally pay -110 while 2-team 7-point teasers generally pay -130. Add games to increase pay-out as you see fit (e.g. 4-team, 6-point teaser pays +300, and so on).
Pittsburgh +7.5, Over 30 – Betting on a close Bal/Pit match-up and hoping they don’t completely shut the scoreboard down (6-pt, 2-team, -110).
Houston -2, Over 36.5 – Betting that even if Collins survives, he doesn’t thrive, and the Texans run to a win. 36.5 should be pretty safe with these two (7-pt, 2-team, -130).
San Fran +0.5, Under 43.5 – Again, the QBs, especially T-Jax (6-pt, 2-team, -110).
New England +0.5, San Diego -2.5, Cleveland -0.5 – Moving the lines on my favorite “big-favorites” to under a field goal (6-pt, 3-team, +180).

Feel free to make your own picks below or just put my picks on blast. I’d say it’s fairly likely my first week of “published” picks gets a touch of bad luck from the Gambling Gods (and because this column is missing The Greek, a breach of contract on both our parts). Enjoy Sunday #1 everyone, should feel good.

There are dozens of different draft strategies a fantasy player could choose to employ on draft day. This is obvious – the old fashioned Triple-RB strategy, the QB-TE “elite options” strategy, a PPR-focused WR-RB-WR strategy, and many, many more. I’ve touched on some end-game WR and RB strategies in the past week, but today I wanted to look at the roster strategy that varies in the most significant way – Quarterbacks.

Unlike in real football, a QB isn’t necessarily the lynchpin of a great team or dynasty. While some would prefer one of the elite options and a set-it-and-forget-it approach at the position, others choose to stack up on the skill positions early and wait for a later wave of signal-callers. Either strategy has its merits, as long as the strategy is thorough and well thought out. In the past few articles I’ve spoke to using bench spots on high-upside players, this doesn’t hold across the board for your QB2, where your selection will be dependant almost entirely on your QB1.

I should also note that this article does not at all apply to my 14-team 2-QB league, where I’m stuck with two starters with the same bye week (Romo and McCoy), and will basically be punting Week 5. Seriously, don’t concern yourself too much with bye weeks in general, but make sure you have a look for QB2.

Note: All Strength of Schedule info per FF Toolbox.

Group 1 – Bye Week Fill-Ins
If you were lucky enough to draft a QB in this class, you really only need to worry about plugging in your back-up during your QB1′s bye week. This means you probably sacrificed at WR or RB, but it may be worth it to save you the hassle later in the year.

Philip Rivers – The most reliable fantasy QB in my books, Rivers has a bye in Week 6. The friendliest match-ups this week belong to QBs who will be widely owned, but there’s value in stashing Colt McCoy for a match-up with the Raiders. I’m high on McCoy as a QB2, and he seems to be underowned, so may be available.

Tom Brady – Tom Terrific has a Week 7 bye, and potential fill-ins should be available. Matt Hasselbeck faces the Texans, Colt McCoy draws the Seahawks, Chad Henne gets the Broncos, and Cam Newton duels the Redskins. I’d go McCoy, but maybe by this point Newton will have shown enough to make the gamble worthwhile for a week.

Aaron Rodgers – A Week 8 bye should give Rodgers et. al a clean bill of health for the second half. As a fill-in, Luke McCown (!!) draws the Texans, Andy Dalton sees the Seahawks, and Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the Redskins. By then you should know which of these options is less likely to produce a 0 for your squad, but right now it sure looks like Fitzpatrick.

Drew Brees – Sanchize gets the Broncos on a Thursday, McNabb draws the Raiders, McCoy lucks out with the Jaguars, and The Rex Cannon duels the Cowboys. Otherwise, your rolling with Brees.

Group 2 – Injury Concerns
No explanation needed, really – these are elite-talent QBs with looming injury concerns that may require in-season help at the position.

Mike Vick – The concern with Vick is that his run-heavy style gets him hit more often than other QBs. You can manage the odd bump or bruise or missed week in-season with a waiver fill-in. Unfortunately, Vick will be one of your top producers, so losing him for the fantasy playoffs could be the end of your season. The teams with the best match-ups for the fantasy playoffs are NYG, NE, Mia, Ind, and TB. It’s unlikely you’ll grab Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to go with Vick, so a mid-round pick of Josh Freeman, or a late flier on Eli Manning would be helpful. If you’re really gutsy, you could wait it out and grab Chad Henner or whoever replaces him later in the season, and use the roster spot for something else until Vick goes down (if, I suppose).

Peyton Manning – We don’t know how much time he’ll miss, but it sure sounds like he’s going to miss some games. I’d recommend using a roster spot on a QB until Peyton proves healthy, and then cutting bait. The teams with the friendliest early season schedule for QBs are Oak, Dal, Pit, NYJ, and StL, making Mark Sanchez an ideal target as an early Peyton-caddy. You won’t be able to grab Romo, Bradford, or Big Ben in all likelihood, and Jason Campbell is a scary thought as a fantasy starter.

Group 3 – Caddy Suggested
This group of near-elite QBs could be reliably considered QB1s, especially in deeper leagues. I’m comfortable with Ben as my starter in multiple leagues, but it doesn’t mean I’m not more comfortable with a quality back-up.

Ben Roethlisberger – Ben comes with some injury risk and some potentially tough match-ups, but I have nearly complete faith in him as a QB1. In his Week 11 bye, Sanchez, McNabb, Grossman, and McCoy have favorable match-ups. In fact, for this group as a whole I’d try to target Colt McCoy as a potential back-up as the Browns have a favorable schedule and I’m high on his potential. I reached for Bradford as a back-up in one league, but regret jumping so early given my faith in Big Ben. After Week 1, the Steelers don’t face another tough pass defense until their Ravens rematch in Week 9, and then face mid-level defenses in the fantasy playoffs.

Tony Romo – I’m not as high on Romo as most, it seems, but he definitely has the tools and the track record to be a top QB. Some rate him among the elite class, but I have him here in the slightly-sub-elite. Jason Campbell and Eli Manning have nice match-ups during Romo’s Week 5 bye, and you may also want to grab someone with an easier schedule in the fantasy playoffs, as Romo goes Giants-Bucs-Eagles Weeks 14-16.

Matt Schaub – The same fill-ins apply here that applied for Ben and Brees, and Schaub may be just as reliable as either. His injury history is exaggerated, and other than a tough stretch from Weeks 3-6 where he’ll face New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, the schedule is relatively friendly.

Matt Ryan – Like Ben, I’d be comfortable playing him every week, but would want a decent back-up just to be safe…except for the schedule. During his Week 8 bye, McCown, Fitzy, Dalton, and Eli all have strong match-ups. Be patient with Ryan, as the Falcons have a tough fantasy schedule to start the year (Phi, TB, GB, and Car all in the first six weeks), but be ready to have a caddy on hand for a tough fantasy playoffs, as he’ll bookend a tasty Jacksonville match-up with Carolina and New Orleans in Weeks 14 and 16.

Group 4 – Platoon QBs
If your QB1 doesn’t even make this list, you may be in trouble, or you may need to more aggressively pursue the platoon strategy, employing more waiver-calibre QBs with strong match-ups. These QBs are all high-upside but have concerns and varying schedule difficulties. Luckily, that makes some of them good complements for each other, and owning two isn’t redundant or foolish, it’s prudent.

Josh Freeman – He and Cutler don’t match up well for byes, and it’s for the best as they have similar split-season difficulty profiles. Freeman showed a lot of potential last year but may take a step back, especially in the turnover department, so have someone else on hand. This is especially true for the early part of the year, as Tampa opens with a tough schedule that is the second most difficult Weeks 6-10. Joe Flacco would make a great platoon-mate for this reason, as that’s his only easy stretch of the year.

Matt Stafford – Stafford has plenty of weapons, a pass-heavy system, and tons of upside…but he also has durability concerns and a hellish fantasy schedule. You’ll want to play the week-by-week match-ups with Stafford until he proves himself an every-week starter, but be ready to roll with him Weeks 6-10 (mid-level schedule). Due to the difficulty of his schedule, Cutler, Eli, and Freeman would all be acceptable complements.

Sam Bradford – Bradford never gets a break really, with an easy Week 11-13 stretch and a decent starting schedule being his only smooth sailing. For that reason he may profile as a back-up, but he has enormous upside. Eli, Freeman, and Cutler all have easier fantasy playoff schedules and don’t share a bye.

Joe Flacco – An ideal platoon-mate with Freeman, Flacco’s only easy stretch comes Weeks 6-10. You can’t platoon him with Bradford due to the byes, and that’s good because they both have difficult fantasy playoff schedules. Flacco should post good numbers, but you’re not going to want to rely on him in the championship rounds.

Eli Manning – Yes, I’m an Eli hater, but he’s turnover prone and lost some weapons this year. I’d classify him as a back-up, but if you draft him as a QB1 make sure you have a QB1-B, preferably someone from this group. With a Week 7 bye, you’re free to jump on any of these players as a platoon-mate, but be ready to start Eli in the fantasy playoffs, as the Giants rank as the easiest QB schedule for fantasy purposes Weeks 14-16.

Jay Cutler – See the note on Freeman, but Cutler’s schedule is top-11 in each season segment from Week 6 on. Eli would make a nice early-season caddy, and you’ll have trade bait down the stretch as both QBs face easy late-season schedules.

Group 5 – Luke McCown
Just kidding.

8-team, 10-team, 12-team, tiny league, gigantic league, I’m of the opinion at least 24 Running Backs should be owned in all leagues. I’ve never been in a league where less than two RBs are started, and most allow two plus a flex play. Add in bench options (at least one of which you’ll be keeping for bye week fill-ins, handcuffs, etc), and many more than 24 should be owned, but the top-24 must be owned. That’s three RBs per squad in an 8-team, two in a 12-team, and so on. Beyond those 24, I’d highly recommend stocking your bench with RBs over Quarterbacks or Tight Ends, and maybe even Wide Receivers depending on your scoring and roster format.

And that brings me to today’s topic, under-owned RB properties. Using Yahoos’ ownership rates, I looked through the ranks to see who I feel should be owned in more leagues. Keep in mind, I tend to focus more on deeper leagues, and it’s generally my philosophy to fill a bench with high-upside plays, outside of one semi-reliable plug-and-play option. Thus, a lot of these options will be back-ups with either a high probability of getting the chance to start, or a high chance of success if given an opportunity. I don’t necessarily believe in “handcuffing,” just filling the bench with high-upside players.

100% Ownership
Yahoo shows only 10 RBs as being universally owned (Run-DMC, AP, Mendenhall, MJD, Turner, CJ2K, Rice, Foster, JC of KC, and Shady McCoy). While I understand that even with my “24=100″ rule there could be some variance based on personal rankings, this seems awfully low. Yes, 99% is nitpicking from 100%, but it’s still curious that Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Shonn Greene, and Matt Forte aren’t at complete ownership. Beyond that group, other acceptable weekly starters like Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount, DeAngelo Williams, and Felix Jones are marginally available. In what leagues are these players waiver-worthy?

I’d go as far as to also include Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Beanie Wells, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, and Tim Hightower in the 100% ownership group as well, giving us 25 fully owned RBs. I suppose in the thinnest of leagues, there are reasons not to own Knowshon Moreno (lack of success), Mark Ingram (unclear workload), Ryan Mathews (mix of both), Fred Jackson (looming back-up), or Mike Tolbert (split-time back), but even this group should probably be owned except for the rare 8-team 2RB no-bench league.

Start-Worthy
For owners in deeper leagues that may need starters beyond those listed, there are a number of backs who could receive start-worthy workloads, though their situations aren’t ideal.

BJ Green-Ellis (92%) will likely be part of a platoon but has earned the most trust based on his 2010 performance and should start the year as the goal-line back. I wouldn’t heavily invest in the other New England RBs until we see the division of carries (although I do own one Shane Vereen share)

Ryan Grant (89%) is likewise splitting time with James Starks (53%), and whichever one emerges will be startable based on their ideal offensive situations, but for now are both a risky play.

Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas (84%, 72%) will split carries, with Bush having slightly more upside but Thomas a more traditional back, meaning Bush is the short-term play but Thomas may be the long-term play.

Brandon Jacobs, Willis McGahee, Pierre Thomas, Thomas Jones, and Marion Barber (77%, 55%, 61%, 42%, 29%) could all steal goal-line work, while LaDainian Tomlinson, Jonathan Stewart, Michael Bush, C.J. Spiller, and Darren Sproles (69%, 69%, 59%, 52%, 45%) could poach enough carries to be relevant.

Strong Deeper Options
These players all have roadblocks to playing time or production but in leagues with deeper benches, or for those with weak starting RBs, they are certainly worth a flier.

We’ve all seen Arian Foster’s MRI by now, and two hamstring injuries in a single preseason are worrisome. Derrick Ward (7%) is #2 on the depth chart, but Ben Tate (43%) is the lottery ticket to own. He missed 2010 due to injury and could have been an Arian Foster in his own right if he stayed healthy. He has the talent and the team context, he just needs the opportunity.

We also all know how Mike Shanahan operates at this point. While I’m bullish on Tim Hightower, I’d say Roy Helu (34%) (and not Ryan Torain [32%]) is worth owning based on the coach’s fickle ways and Helu’s obvious upside.

Jahvid Best is a highlight waiting to happen, but that highlight could be a touchdown or an injury. Jerome Harrison (23%), fantasy football’s forgotten man, looms as a back-up with a resume and potential, even if he may not profile as an every-down back.

With Peyton Manning potentially missing time, the Colts may be forced to rely on their running game more than usual, which would make Delone Carter (21%) a sneaky plug-and-play option. Joseph Addai isn’t a superstar, and while Carter may not be either, the Colts will probably spread the carries around if forced to rush 20+ times. Carter has a much higher upside and could be the future bell-cow for the pass-first franchise when Addai is put out to pasture.

Montario Hardesty (14%) was a popular sleeper last season before his knee injury, and he should be on the radar in the event Peyton Hillis wears down as he appeared to last year. Hillis will receive work on all downs, though, so Hardesty is likely just injury insurance at this point.

Lottery Tickets
Dexter McCluster (15%) is exciting to watch, but didn’t give us much in terms of fantasy value last year. He’s a part-time third string RB, a part-time slot receiver, and a full-time return man, none of which makes him anything other than watchable. Still, the skill set is there if Todd Haley ever figures out how to best utilize it.

Frank Gore probably has more of an “injury-prone” reputation than is deserved, but Kendall Hunter (11%) would be an immediate waiver add if he went down. If you’ve got the roster space, don’t wait until the injury comes. Be proactive, people.

I’m high on Felix Jones this year, but he can’t have too long of a leash if he disappoints again. Tashard Choice (13%) survived the final round of cuts, but DeMarco Murray (13%) is the more intriguing gamble for your roster.

Bernard Scott (6%) is a better fit for what Jay Gruden is claiming to want to do in Cincy, but he’ll need a Cedric Benson injury or arrest to be relevant, and his upside doesn’t seem sky-high either. Still, the volume would be there.

With Rashad Jennings out for the year, Deji Karim (7%) becomes Maurice Jones-Drew’s caddy and handcuff, and I can tell you from watching him that he has big-play ability and the potential to force his way into a time-share for my Jags. This team won’t be throwing the ball with much frequency or success, so there will be carries to go around.

I’d highly recommend making room for at least one player from these last two groups if you have a bench spot. Put down that third TE or Danny Woodhead (52% owned, REALLY?).

Check back later this week for an article on TEs and QBs to finish my pre-season mini-series.

Now that my own personal fantasy leagues have drafted, I can finally take the writing shackles off and scribe about fantasy football, without the risk of my competitors stealing my secret recipes from within these pages. In reality, probably none of this is groundbreaking, but in a competitive league there’s certainly a chance someone would look here to glean information about my drafting strategy or rankings. With that possibility now behind us, I can delve into some fantasy thoughts and theories, and today I’ll start by focusing on end-game Wide Receiver strategy. Since this is my first fantasy football article of the season, I should note that I tend to focus on deeper leagues, with a lean towards PPR leagues as well, but I’ll try to keep advice as general as possible.

In terms of general fantasy strategy, people seem to either build for high-floor or high-ceiling, and in my leagues there isn’t a lot of variance within rosters. I don’t really understand that. That is, while owners seem to trend towards one or the other, I think it’s most logical to feature a hybrid of low-risk and high-risk players, diversifying your fantasy portfolio. This seems intuitive, but I suppose it may not be. Specifically, I’m a believer in high-floor for starting lineups and high-ceiling for the bench. Basically, once I’ve crafted a starting lineup that I’m comfortable with, I’ll begin to gamble a bit more to fill out the bench.

And I think the strategy here makes sense. Yes, throughout the fantasy regular season, depth and low downside will keep you consistently competitive week to week. But personally, I have universal faith in my ability to make the fantasy playoffs almost regardless of the strategy I’ve employed, simply based on smart drafting and aggressive in-season maneuvering. So if you’re a well-travelled (or highly egotistical) owner that is relatively sure of a playoff spot, and a high-floor team will only do so much for you. In the fantasy playoffs, you’re going to need some upside to win against the best teams in the league.

As an example, the owner with Michael Vick last year may not have been the most consistent in your league, but I’ll bet in weeks 14 and 15, Vick helped lead them to the fantasy finals. This was the case in my most competitive league, and I found myself taking a few high-upside risks (hello, Tim Tebow!) to combat Vick’s scoring potential. I assumed that while my downside was higher than my opponent’s, the presence of Vick made his upside greater, and I had to account for this, not vice versa.

With that example in mind, I think the general axiom holds that your bench should be more geared towards high-upside plays, especially at the Wide Receiver position. After all, this position has the largest pool of players to draw from, and has relatively more acceptable point producers than the Running Back position, especially if you’re league is a 3WR/2RB/1Flex roster composition as many of mine are.

After you’ve filled your starting Wide Receiver positions and secured one reliable bench wide-out to cover bye weeks or an injury, it’s time to roll the dice.

After all, right now there are more than a handful of reliable (read: boring) wide-outs available in over 50% of Yahoo leagues that will be out there if your risk doesn’t pan out. As I see it, you have at least three weeks to roll the dice with these bench spots until bye weeks may necessitate some more reliable bench players, and a three-week audition on your bench rather than on the waiver wire could be the difference between you having Miles Austin circa 2009 and someone else having him to use against you.

The following players are available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues and are intriguing upside plays for your bench spots.

Robert Meachem, NO, 45%: Marques Colston has bad knees, and the Saints spread the ball around. The public is down on Devery Henderson (1% owned), but Meachem could be a startable wide-out quickly.
Steve Breaston, KC, 32%: As the unquestioned number two in Kansas City, Breaston should have more consistent opportunity and a better pass-thrower than last year in the desert. While this is a run-first team, Dwayne Bowe will draw heavy coverage, and coach Todd Haley is very familiar with how to best use Breaston.
Steve Smith, Phi, 28%: Owners don’t seem to be keeping up with the news, as Smith looks like he could potentially be ready for Week 1. His current ownership is at PUP-anticipatory levels, not reflective of the number two option in Philly.
Antonio Brown, Pit, 24%: Big Ben’s favorite preseason target, he may have passed Emmanuel Sanders on the QB’s mental progression list. Brown has huge down-field ability, and will likely be an inconsistent but productive performer.
Greg Little, Cle, 21%: He could end up being the number one option quickly, and the Browns appear ready to throw the ball more this year. Still, nobody is buying on Browns receivers. Make the exception here.
Denarius Moore, Oak, 14%: Another Typical Raider Receiver? Not quite. Moore has been very impressive through camp and could open the season as the top target with injuries having ravaged the depth chart.
Andre Roberts, Ari, 7%: Steve Breaston was productive in years past, and Roberts will slide into his role, only with a better QB at the helm this year. Number two targets in a pass-first offense with a decent QB? Sold.
Titus Young, Det, 4%: The speedy slot-man for the upstart Lions, Young could benefit from being matched up against weaker defenders as defenses key in on Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, leaving him holes in the middle to exploit and turn into big down-field gains. I’m very high on Young.

And hey, if these picks don’t pan out or you lose patience, the following players are also available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues, and are your more reliable (again, read: boring) Wide Receiver options.

Nate Burleson, Det, 39%: While defenses focus in on Megatron, Burleson will receive a fair number of targets in this pass-heavy offense, but his best years are behind him.
Donald Driver, GB, 35%: The Packers keep getting better options, but he remains the constant. His production will continue to trend downwards, but still have some value.
Derrick Mason, NYJ, 24%: Old Reliable, while his role in New York may not be as secure or defined as in Baltimore, Mark Sanchez will find him frequently enough and grow to rely on him.
Terrell Owens, FA, 19%: Obviously owners are expecting him to sign mid-season somewhere, and the timing could be just right if your patience wears thin around the half-way point of the season.
Earl Bennett, Chi, 15%: Some may have placed him in the list above, but with the ball being spread in the Martz offense, I think a repeat of his 2010 numbers is likely.
Nate Washington, Ten, 9%: A perennial occupant of sleeper lists prior to this year, he’ll draw some targets with easier coverage opposit Kenny Britt and probably grab 3 or 4 catches each week.
Kevin Walter, Hou, 9%: The Original White Receiver, he’s still an underneath option for Matt Schaub and will be his fourth most targetted option.
TJ Houshmandzadeh, FA, 1%: Like Owens, if a team adds Housh mid-season, he may be worth a roster spot depending on the situation.

Based on the descriptions above, it should be pretty obvious that the first group offers way more upside. With this type of player (less than 50% owned), you shouldn’t be relying on them, so the lower downside for the first group shouldn’t hurt you.

Take the risk with those extra Wide Receiver bench spots, and enjoy the waiver-free returns mid-season, or cut bait as your needs dictate. Just don’t assume the safer play is the right play, especially with your bench spots.

Originally I was going to have Divison Odds and Player Futures/Props in two separate posts, but the division odds don’t really require a lot of detail, and I’m unsure if I’ll be able to get a separate post up tomorrow (plus, I have a few other article ideas I don’t want to let cool off in the meantime). So we’ll go through a few quick Divisional Futures picks and then move onto MVP Futures and season-long Player Props. I am once again joined by Under-19 Women’s International Soccer gambling afficianado and semi-professional low-life The Greek.

NFC Divisional Futures

The most interesting point for the NFC Divisions is the fact that Vegas is giving the NFC West a non-zero chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot. I’m working under the assumption that the division winner will be the division’s only playoff representative, so in my mind playoff odds should be equal to division odds. I know there is a small chance a second team slips in, but since I doubt it, I’d highly recommend putting your money on “division winner” instead of “playoffs” for a slightly better pay-out. For the record, I’d take Arizona at 16/5 (over 3-to-1 payout) rather than take St. Louis or San Fran at less than 2-to-1.

Despite having the same odds for the Super Bowl, Vegas is giving Atlanta slightly better odds than New Orleans to win the division. I can’t say I disagree, but it’s interesting to note.

A final note on the NFC would be to not waste your money on any NFC North team, as Green bay is most certainly going to take the division, but the pay-out is unfavorable at 10/19, unless you have a large chunk of cash to throw on it.

AFC Divisional Futures

The most interesting note for the AFC divisions is also about the difference between Division odds and Playoff odds, this time in the South. Vegas has basically decided that Indianapolis or Houston will take the division (fair), but the uncertainty around Peyton Manning has pushed them razor close in odds. If you believe Manning will return early and not miss a step, there is abover-average value on the Colts to win the division. On the other hand, if you’re fairly certain on Houston taking the division, it may be worth your risk to also bet on Indy to miss the playoffs entirely at 6/4.

Like with the Super Bowl and AFC Championship odds, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are separated by the smallest of margins. While they’re dead even in my mind, that means I’d lay money on the Baltimore side for a slightly larger pay-out, although I’d probably stay away from this coin-flip altogether.

Like Green Bay in the NFC North, don’t waste your resources on San Diego in the AFC West unless you have a sizable bank roll – they’ll win the division, but 4/9 isn’t enough pay-out for me to tie up resources for the entire season.

AFC vs. NFC
The AFC and NFC are currently even at -110 odds for the Super Bowl. This makes sense in a theoretical league with complete parity, but the value could lay on either side depending on how you think – does the AFC’s depth at the top of the class mean the eventual Super Bowl competitor will be banged up and at a disadvantage, or does it merely ensure a strong representative, while the NFC has less assurance of that? I’d tend to go with the latter, and see some small value with AFC -110 right now.

MVP Futures

Let’s turn it over to The Greek to start: Betting on NFL MVP’s is like screwing a stripper. It’s fun at the time, but you know you’re only going to regret it later.

I think of it as the true sucker bet. I bet on evvveryything, spending my hard earned dollars like a pirate, and I just don’t see value in this class. But that would make for boring reading, so let’s analyze what my play would be if I was going to go balls-deep into the NFL MVP betting pool.

What we know:
1) The MVP is historically never on a losing team
2) Unless you rush for 2,000 yards, or break some kind of crazy long-standing reception record (most receptions, TD’s, etc), the award is going to the QB (of a winning team)
3) All stats being the same, the better your team is doing, the better chance the QB has of winning (the 15-1 QB is getting more looks than the 10-6 QB)
4) The media loves a good story

Lets start out by all agreeing that NFL MVP betting lines are awful. Considering how many players are in the league, and how tough the competition is, anything less than 10-1 odds makes me laugh. I have already expressed my opinion that it is very likely a QB will take down this award (thank me in February). With that being said, we must then turn to the team in which they hail from.

If the odds you are getting for the NFL MVP QB < Odds you are getting for a Superbowl win… forget it. It’s just far too risky – the best teams could have multiple MVP candidates, and individual players have more risk than full temas.

I have identified three value bets that don’t follow the trend apparent in all other options.
1) Phillip Rivers (12/1 MVP, 9/2 Super Bowl)
2) Ben Roethlisberger (16/1 MVP, 15/1 Super Bowl)
3) Joe Flacco (22/1 MVP, 16/1 Super Bowl)

Now let us immediately remove Big Ben so you don’t have to waste your entire season cheering for the Steelers, and insert Michael Vick. After all, I’ll take a dog-beater over a (Editor’s note: An alleged.) rapist any day.

Vick’s odds of winning MVP = odds of Eagles to win SB (8/1). AND, This follows Rule 4 of what we know, in that the media will sensationalize his average-good play to look great (not to mention he hits on Rules 1-3 as well, since the Eagles promise to be great).

With the Chargers, Eagles and Ravens , no matter how you shake it, you get to cheer for a very good football team, with a great QB with the tools to win. And you don’t have to ride Manning or Brady’s D……which is a huuuge win for me!

Back to Blake: The Greek did a good job breaking that down for you, so allow me just a few quick points.

*As was evident in the Super Bowl Odds article, I’m very high on the Chargers. Rivers is by far their best player and unquestioned leader, and is, in my mind, the most likely to win the award. So with the sixth best odds, I’ll run with that pick.
*While Flacco is interesting as the QB of a very good team, the defense gets a lot of love and Ray Rice may do too much for Flacco to get the credit required for MVP.
*For Trevor, I should point out that Sanchez, at 33/1, would be a very handsome pay-out (see what I did there?) if the Jets could take a bye in the AFC playoffs with a top-two seed, as the GQ cover-boy and media darling of a major-market winner.

Player Props/Futures
A few quick notes on some attractive player-related bets I saw out there.

Julio Jones, Offensive Rookie of the Year, +450 – While he has the lowest pay-out, he’s also had the best preseason, has the best dreadlocks, and has the best situation. Giddy up.
Darren McFadden, Rushing Yards Title, +2500 – You have to look a bit of the way down the list to find Run DMC, but he has the pedigree, a run-first offense, and every tool you could ask for except durability. If healthy and upright for 16 games, this is a risk worth taking.
Jamaal Charles +5 Season Rushing Yards v. Chris Johnson, -110 – This line will change quickly if CJ2K gets any closer to missing time, so jump on it while you can if you think the holdout drags into the season.
Larry Fitzgerald +55 Season Receiving Yards v. Greg Jennings, -110 – Easy money. They were near even last year (1265-1137 Jennings), while Fitz was taking passes from John Skelton & Co, and Jennings benefited from an injury to Jermichael Finley.

Team Props/Futures
A few quick notes on some attractive team-related bets I saw out there.

Arizona -1 Wins v. Denver, -105 – The Cardinals play in a mediocre division and should make a bit of a jump with the addition of Kevin Kolb behind center.
NY Jets -1 Wins v. NY Giants, +105 – Not the easiest of calls here, but the Giants have had a lot of injuries pop up in the preseason already, and their secondary looks thin now. The Jets should win 11, can the Giants go 10-6?
Green Bay, Highest Scoring Team, +550 – They have the third lowest pauout (New England +350, San Diego +450) but could be an offensive juggernaut with a healthy Jermichael Finley and an emerging Jordy Nelson added to Aaron Rodgers’ arsenal of weapons.
Carolina Panthers, Lowest Scoring Team, +400 – The lowest payout, yes, but this is also a near certainty. They scored 75 less points than anyone last season and probably lost ground on Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo in this regard.

That’s all for my 2011 Gambling Preview, but check back from time to time for weekly notes or updates if any futures odds change significantly. The rest of the week will have a Fantasy Football flavor to it now that my draft is complete!

No fancy introduction, let’s jump right into it – today and next week I’ll be looking at NFL Futures odds (all odds per Bet365) and giving some brief thoughts and tips on them. A big assist was provided by my own personal “Cousin Sal,” The Greek, a man so well versed in the art of sports gambling that his fiancée is unknowingly walking around with an engagement ring purchased with house money.

Let’s start at the top and work our way down, from Superbowl odds to Conference Championship odds. On Monday I’ll have a look at Division Championship odds, and on Tuesday I’ll break down MVP odds and a few random player-related futures bets.


The Greek starts us off: I believe realistically you can stop reading the odds past Houston (and with Houston I’m only being kind because of the question marks around Indy). Apologies to Tampa Bay (headed in the right direction but not there yet) and Chicago – you can make it to the NFC Championship 10 years in a row, and I will shun you just the same (read: Cutler is a sack of s**t).

We’re now down to 13 teams, and if all teams had an equal chance, you’d expect each to pay out in the 11-1 or 12-1 ballpark. Based on the parity we saw in the league last year and the uncertainty created by the lockout this year, it simply doesn’t seem like good value to bet on anything with odds in that ballpark. That eliminates the Pats, Cheeseheads, and Eagles – sorry, but you’re out. Belichick and Brady scare me, Rodgers’ tight spiral makes me wet, and Vick has an unreal setup, but Lesson #1 of value betting is to control your bone. Any of these teams finishing worse than 11-5 would seem like a LeBron-sized chokeshow, but I can’t recommend these low-value options.

That leaves us 10, two of which I really like based on their value. First is the New York Giants, a team that ESPN and the media don’t seem to be too hot and bothered about, but are decent at every position and have a Manning at QB. At 25-1 odds, dance the night away and get on the floor.

The other is San Diego, a team that appears to have scared Vegas, as even with a truly mediocre season in 2010, from a win-loss perspective, they have the fourth longest odds. Vegas is right to be afraid and play conservative. Rivers is dirt-nasty, and last year everything that could go wrong did. In a game of “hide the team name and look at just the stats,” you’d be stupid not to rank SD in your top three. At 10-1, take that to the bank in this talentless division.

Blake’s take: As a general first rule, I don’t think it ever makes sense to waste money on real long shots if you don’t feel they are legitimately undervalued in some core fundamental way. I love my Jaguars, but not even at 75-1 will I lay more than $5 on them. A good rule of thumb is to pick the teams you think have the best chance of making the playoffs and work from there (maybe we should have looked at Division odds first).

I agree with The Greek’s cut-off point of Houston, a team that could take the step forward people have been waiting on for a few seasons now. I disagree that you can throw out the top three completely, but with value under 10-1 you do need to be pretty certain. In other seasons, I’d agree, but in a year where continuity could be the key to success, the Patriots and Packers will have a strong chance to go far. Still, if I’m tying up money for five months with a future’s bet, I want to try and hit a home run so I, like The Greek, will stick with the longer odds.

San Diego is a great pick at 10-1, with the easiest path to the playoffs of any of the top-ranked contenders. While this didn’t quite work out last year, their peripheral stats were still other-worldly, and Rivers should have more and healthier targets this year, making the offense more consistently dangerous.

Last year I nearly won big with a Steelers futures bet, and I think a long offseason with little turnover could have helped the veteran squad. At the same time, I think Baltimore presents the best value on the board at 16-1, and I’m hesitant to lay money on two teams from the same division. Still, both teams should be improved from 2010 and are in my personal top-six contenders, so I’ll lay the money here finding value at 15-1 and 16-1 when I think their actual odds are closer to 1-in-8.

Finally, since one of us should probably recommend an NFC team, I think the Falcons could be ready to take the leap, and at 15-1 odds it’s worth a shot. While they play in a tough division, they were phenomenal last year and have made noticeable improvements on offense with the additions of rookies Julio Jones and potential 3rd-down difference-maker Jazquizz Rodgers. While still a run-first team, the Falcons have added weapons that should help them in late-game situations, an area where they struggled a bit last year (two of their three regular season losses were within one score).

The AFC runs about seven-deep (five playoff contenders plus whoever wins the Indy/Houston battle in the South). If you’re a fan of New England this year, their 11-4 odds here are less enticing than their 11-2 odds in the Super Bowl, so bet for the big one with them (unless the NFC really scares you). I’d roll with Baltimore here, as their odds get longer than Pittsburgh, and I’d prefer my San Diego money on the Super Bowl.

The NFC only runs four-deep in my opinion. Some are high on the Cowboys, but I’d like to see the alleged improvements in action before I buy in. Meanwhile, while The Greek makes some salient points about the Giants, they’ve lost three defensive players for the season already, lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, and are relying on a lot of things going right offensively. Plus, I don’t believe in Tom Coughlin’s ability to keep a team focused for 19 games. Atlanta is great value at 15-2, and if you like Philadelphia or Green Bay, I’d suggest spending your money here rather than on the Super Bowl as the NFC is a bit weaker than the AFC overall (not relevant for a potential Super Bowl match up, but in terms of the top teams reliably staying on top).

A note on the Eagles here is that if you believe in Mike Vick, go ahead and bet big. I don’t have the stones to basically gamble on Vick’s health. I know Vince Young could run a similar playbook if forced into action, but there’s no telling how the offense would respond if forced to go Vick-less for any amount of time. The defense will be stellar, but the odds seem too small in my opinion to roll the dice on Vick. Maybe I’m just conservative, though.

Check back Monday and Tuesday for more futures odds analysis.

The NFL’s goal has always been league-wide parity. While there are obviously a few bright and dark examples to the contrary, in general the middle of the league enjoys a good amount of movement and change. In the longer-term, teams that don’t fall victim to the regression-to-the-mean effect of the NFL’s parity mission stick out as those that are managed well (New England and Indianapolis are the most obvious) or managed poorly (Oakland and Kansas City come to mind, but they appear to be turning the corner, so we’ll allow the Lions the dishonor of being our example).

The league encourages parity in a number of ways. The salary cap and draft are both designed to allow all teams an equal field of competition, giving all teams equal access to free agents and access to rookies in reverse priority of their current standing. By and large, this works. Again, there are examples to the contrary on either end of the spectrum, but parity in the NFL at least passes the sniff test.

For Vegas, this is wonderful. Bill Simmons is constantly updating his Gambling Manifesto (now on version 314.2-B I believe) to reflect the ever-changing nature of the NFL. It makes it extremely difficult for the run-of-the-mill gambler, and means any ‘edge’ you can gain in betting is exponentially valuable. In fact, in my Against the Spread picks pool, which is both high stakes ($100 entry) and highly competitive (87 participants, all active), the leader sits at 100-60, a respectable 62.5% win clip. However, the gap between fourth place (89-71, 53.8%) and 86th (69-91, 43.1%) is pretty narrow for a deep pool in Week 12. In a pool where the top seven get paid, the gap between fourth and 45th (the 50.0% cut-off, 80-80) is excruciatingly narrow. One bad week can cost you, and one good week can elevate you much further than you would expect.

Not surprisingly, the same can be said about the real teams playing in the NFL. The graphic below is an NFL Circle of Life (or Circle of Death), showing all 32 teams in a circle. It is arranged such that each team has beaten the team that follows it, in clockwise fashion. That is, Atlanta beat Tampa Bay who beat Cleveland who beat New Orleans, etc, all the way back to Pittsburgh, who beat Atlanta. This is a ridiculous image, and an incredible illustration of parity to wrap your head around.

(Source.)

Furthermore, because of this parity the playoff races are tighter than usual. While some divisions are tight due to ineptitude (The NFC West), no division leader has a cushion of greater than one game. Like I said about the picks pool earlier, one good week or one bad week could legitimately make the difference. Currently seven teams have won seven games, while no team remains winless or has less than two losses. What this means is that 19 teams are currently within a game of a playoff spot.

Obviously, with a larger sample size (16 games instead of 10), you expect to see the spread of win totals to grow, and you wouldn’t expect the modal team to project to win 11.2 games (for example, in 2009 the modal team won 8.5 games, and in 2008 they won nine). While obviously the mean is always tied to eight, the mode and median are free to move around. While the league may appear to be top-heavy with so many teams at 7-3, it is important to recognize the distinction between being loaded at the top to an extreme degree (in 2009, two teams won 13 and one won 14, while one team won just one game, and another won just two), or having teams centered around a strong win total (three on pace for 12.8 right now, and only one team on pace to win less than 3.2).

The point is, despite the strong management efforts of some (to remain good or bad), successful teams tend to fluctuate. Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, and St. Louis are all examples of teams that were recently laughing stocks and have risen to semi-respectability. On the other side, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Minnesota are all teams that have fallen off after recent success. Meanwhile, the AFC East continues to produce Indianapolis plus three teams that beat up on each other and finish within a game of each other and just out of the playoffs, automatically it seems.

Yes, strong management is a huge factor in a league that has so many variables at play at once. The Patriots stay good through strong drafting and stockpiling picks, and refusing to overpay anyone. The Colts stay good through player development. The Redskins buy every big name free agent and generally underperform compared to expectations. And there’s also Matt Millen.

Even still, if the playoffs started today, six of the 12 playoff teams would be teams that weren’t there last year. Parity makes the game more exciting on a week-by-week basis, gives hope to the fans of bad teams, and is a sustainable business strategy for the league for the obvious reason of entertainment value. And furthermore, I need an excuse for sitting in ninth (instead of seventh, or first) in my picks pool.

According to this report from ESPN, NFL legend Marshall Faulk is encouraging the Chris Johnson Miracle Train to continue holding out for more money.

In the words of early-WWF Chris Jericho, someone should tell Marshall Faulk to pleeeeeease just shut…the hell…UP!

Seriously Marshall, shut up. Yes, Chris Johnson is holding out for more money. I understand that – he was by far the best running back in the NFL last season, and is due to make just $550,000 this season, less than almost every other unning back.

CJ28 deserves more cash, for certain. In the last year of his three year, $12M rookie contract, the Titans are probably open to the idea of an extension, because there’s no way you can risk losing a franchise-altering back like Johnson because you wouldn’t open up the pocketbook. This is the NFL, and everyone has to spend. But Faulk doesn’t think that will happen:

“Without a doubt, if more money is what he wants, he has to hold out,” Faulk, who is now an NFL Network analyst, told the newspaper. “You have to know who you are dealing with. The Titans aren’t known for caving in or paying, it doesn’t matter who you are. In my opinion, there is no way he can come in and play under the current contract.”

While I’d concede that Johnson pretty much can’t play with his current deal (without exposing himself to serious long-term financial risk should he be injured), I disagree that a hold out is necessary. It’s only early in the optional practice season for the NFL, so I’m remaining optimistic Johnson will at least show up at training camp.

How much money Johnson deserves is up for debate, too. Last year he ran for 500 yards more than the next best back in the league, and he set the single-season yards-from-scrimmage record for the NFL. He is, without question, the most dynamic running back in the league, one of the best receiving backs, and one of the top-10 most exciting players to watch in the league. Really, the Titans can’t afford to have him off the field for any amount of time, and neither can the NFL.

For comparison’s sake, the highest base salary in the league belonged to Darren Sproles ($6.62M), the median starting back had a base salary of about $2.5M, and the league’s second leading rusher (Steven Jackson) had a base salary of $5.5M. When you include signing bonuses, Maurice Jones Drew ($13.1M total compensation) and Brandon Jacobs ($11.5M total compensation) paced the league. You can expect Johnson’s deal to have a ludicrous signing bonus, meaning his compensation for the year will probably reach eight figures, with a base salary around $3.5-5M for 2010.

The unfortunate reality is that Johnson will probably hold out a while longer. He deserves more money, and the Titants will eventually pay it to him, so this all seems more a formality than a newsworthy hold out.

Still, Johnson doesn’t need sportscasters and icons of the sport encouraging him to do the exact thing most sportscasters chastise superstar players for doing (holding out). Chris Johnson will play for the Titans this season, and probably be present for a good chunk of training camp.

In the meantime, someone tell Marshall Faulk to shut up (just in case).

As a Canadian, I joined my countrymen in the giving of thanks over a month ago. But as a sports fan, I cannot help but feel a part of the American version of the holiday. The reason for this is simple: the North American sports leagues flood us with content to coincide with the holiday.

How deep does my commitment to the holiday go? In high school, I had a tradition of playing sick every Thanksgiving Thursday, without fail, so that I could be assured of not missing a moment of watching the Lions get embarrassed and whatever mediocre match-up David Stern threw our way.

Let the most obvious of observations reign: Thanksgiving football is an institution on either side of the border. So, with the day of feasting and family upon us once again, why not use the opportunity to unleash a succession of NFL Tangents.

Nothing captures the spirit of the holiday season like a string of non sequiturs! Onward and upward…

• Does anyone else get the sense that Chris Johnson is destined to play Barry Sanders to Adrian Peterson’s Emmitt Smith (only if, you know, Smith was a complete freak of human nature)? It would shock me very little if a decade from now I am explaining to my nephews how Peterson became the league’s best running back since James Brown but that Johnson had more memorable runs than anyone this century. Just a pleasure to watch them both.

• Speaking of the Vikes, I don’t think it is too much to ask to demand that we get treated to Favre-Green Bay Part 3 in the playoffs. I feel for the Packers fans, and believe nothing will heal their wounds like seeing Old Man Brett and his Wranglers throw his fourth pick of the game and seal Minnesota’s fate, then hop back up on his tractor. The good people of Wisconsin deserve that. They need it. Seeing him accept an MVP trophy would be too much.

• Everyone points to Randy Moss, and understandably so given their obviously similar physical gifts, but the player Calvin “All-World Ability” Johnson needs to study is Reggie Wayne. Like Johnson, Wayne did not start his career with play that suggested his greatness was preordained. Instead he worked. He learned. He studied. And now he is the best receiver in football and will someday be heading to Canton. (Having Peyton Manning throw him the rock and learning under Marvin Harrison didn’t exactly hurt his chances though…)

• Hey Bears fans, at least you can look forward to the Draft and using your first round pick to help shore up…what’s that? Oh. Well. Um…let’s just move along then.

• I can’t decide if Jared Allen looks like he belongs with Leonidas and his bold 300, but as a stunt double in the Mick Foley biopic. What I do know, though, is that he is a bad, bad man.

• Having Steven Jackson on your Fantasy team is a practice in subtle self-hatred. Trying to comprehend how he could so effortlessly earn yardage, yet so definitely fail to put the ball in the end-zone, is a practice that only a man who hates his life would freely take up. You are looking at just such a man.

• Please, football Gods, find Matt Leinart a starting job. There is no way I will believe that he isn’t more qualified and capable than the Marc Bulgers, Alex Smiths, and Trent Edwards of this world.

• Charles Woodson may never have turned into the World Beater he looked like at Michigan, but he has had a wonderfully productive career and should be looked at as a major contender for Defensive Player of the Year.

• The exact same thing can be said for Nick Harper and everyone else on Tennessee. And by same, I mean opposite – they are beyond awful.

• If you are a member of the NFL media and have an MVP vote, and choose not to use it on Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, you will officially be required to forfeit your voting rights.

• Let this be said about the marketing push being put on by the Rogers Centre for the Bills’ “Toronto Series” game next week: at least it is a reprieve from the ads for the Bon Jovi concert that doesn’t even happen until next summer. Really, in 2009, why in the name of Eddie Van Halen are you advertising for a Bon Jovi concert nine months out? I would rather see more of those ridiculously uninspired “T.O. in T.O.!!!” billboards.

• To all those that think VY might be able to run the table, I applaud your optimism, but also remind you that doing so would require a win over Arizona this week and Indy the next. Not saying this is impossible, but I like Topher Grace’s chances as a bankable leading man more. Sorry. (In Fez voice: “I said good day.”)

**This one is being added in by the editor, Blake Murphy, while Trev is on the Vince Young topic: Lil’ Wayne’s line “Vince Young…suicide doors” in Break Up from the No Ceilings mixtape is maybe the cruelest athlete-rap lyric tie-in ever.**

• It dawns on me that the sort of people who casually watch football, yet are clear about their like of the Patriots, are the same kinds of people who like Dane Cook, who read Tucker Max, and who saw 2012 and Law Abiding Citizen. Needless to say, I do not like these people.

• Coors Light Ad Guys – on the upside, congrats, you win as the best mass-marketed beer commercial campaign. On the other hand, since Bud Light Guy and Miller Golden Wheat voiceover were your only contenders, maybe this is not something to brag about.

• Thanksgiving football just is not the same without Madden and his Tur-duck-en. A little part of me still holds out hope that he will re-enter the fray, if only to tell us about what a good stoop he just sat in. I miss you, John.

• Five fearless predictions for the weekend ahead: New England topples the Saints, Houston surprises Indy, Baltimore takes it to Pittsburgh, San Fran catches Jacksonville sleeping, and I waste at least 8 hours watching games when I should be working.

Get home safe, tip your waiters, and don’t forget to talk your doctor to see if Cialis is right for you.