1-17 when I cover. This is getting ridiculous. I should have been betting against the Raptors every time I was assigned coverage, I’d be a rich man.

Anyway, the Raptors battled back from down 18 to force overtime, only to end up losing anyway. My post-game analysis is long-winded.

Check it out.

The count is now at 1-16. The Raptors are 1-and-fricken-16 when I cover their games for RR. They lost by 36 to the Celtics even though Rondo sat out and The Big Three combined for just 66 minutes. Shoot me.

But still….check it out.

The Raptors got hammered in an ugly one against the Hawks, but Milos Raonic was in attendance with his plastic girlfriend!

Not much to discuss in terms of actual basketball, though Ed Davis is looking better.

Check it out!

As is becoming semi-regular of late, Trev Smith and I went back and forth on some NBA items via email, and I’ve tidied it up to pass off as an actual piece of writing! We touch on the Raptors in the face of the Andrea Bargnani injury, how to build the team from here through the draft, the potential future of the D-League, a potential break-up of The Big Three in Boston, and, of course, Kobe and Trev’s Lakers.

Blake: So we’ve committed to another back-and-forth e-mail exchange on all things NBA and laid out a few talking points ahead of time, so hopefully we keep this one in the realm of 7500 words instead of another 15,000-word Masterpiece. I suppose given our status as season ticket holders, we should kick it off with some Raptors talk, as depressing as that may be. (Post-production note: We landed at about 6100. Still too long?)

I’ll first open it up for you to expand on your Bargnani Focus Theorem (The Boom-Dizzle Effect, as it were) we discussed at the T-Wolves game, which I liked. When he’s on the floor, this is clearly his team now, and it’s nice to see him appear to take that ownership seriously. He’s been a stud and the team clearly missed him, going 0-6 during his last absence (and losing the game he exited as well). They surprised everyone with back-to-back road victories over the Suns and Jazz in his return this week, including that incredible Double-OT win last night, but alas, he has re-injured his calf. He claimed it is “much worse than last time,” which makes me want to trade you all of my remaining Raptors tickets for a 1st round pick in fantasy football next year (Oh wait…got it already. Thanks, CJ1K!).

Trev: Shots Fired…not even one paragraph in and I am taking heat for fantasy missteps. For the sake of this dialogue I will choose to overlook such attacks, but trust that like Kobe and Mike before me I have a long memory when it comes to slights, both real and imagined…

In regards to Mr. Primo Pasta himself, I admit to being at somewhat of a loss. Obviously, as a fan and season-seat holder, his latest injury set-back last night is frustrating, given the impact it will have on the team’s ability to score. That said (and I don’t like admitting this) it might actually be the means-to-an-end that I would look for in order to take the steps necessary to improve the franchise. With Andrea in the line-up and playing his regular minutes, the Raps are now 6-5. At first glance, that not only seems inaccurate, but it also seems like a positive thing. And it is positive, to the extent that it reinforces everything Coach Casey is preaching; however, it is also dangerous. Even if that winning percentage is discounted slightly to a shade below .500, it might still represent the record of a playoff team across the 66-game schedule. And this team has no business or right to be in the playoffs.

Which brings me to my dilemma as a Raps fan: I don’t actually want them to win. No, that does not mean I enjoy 8-game losing streaks either, but in an ideal scenario what we’d see is a team that competes hard, fights on defense every night, believes in its coach, and ultimately loses 80 per cent of it’s games due to a ‘talent’ deficit and not a ‘will/heart’ one. A win here and there (like the other night against the Suns) would provide positive reinforcement, and convince the younger guys to stay with the “Pound the Rock” mantra, but winning too much is very dangerous right now. This squad needs more assets (and some blind luck) to be anything resemebling a real threat in the East, which means it needs to lose to secure Draft position. If this year results in a Top-3 pick, a decision about whether Demar and/or Ed Davis are really worth being two of your cornerstones, and the ability to bring Jonas over to start next season, I consider it a success. They would then also have cap space to throw around (ideally at Eric Gordon, or more realistically at a better-than-average point guard for once) and could enter next year with a real identity.

Simply put, a healthy Bargs makes us too much of a threat on some nights to finish 10-thru-8 in the East, which has been the trademark of what is wrong with this franchise. In this league, you need to blow things up completely to compete, or you finish 7th every year, never reload, never find a Franchise guy through the draft, and never play a meaningful game in the spring. The Raps have done this their entire history (as did the Leafs, pre-lockout, but that is another story) and I am sick of it. Commit to being awful, get moral victories, and start over, because patch-work roster repair – also known as The Colangelo Special – is not how to win in this league.

And yes, I did see a milk carton the other day with Ed Davis’ picture on it. It hurt my heart a little.

Blake: I agree completely with you, and it sucks. It’s something that, in theory, the draft lottery is meant to protect against and doesn’t, but I do have a solution to propose (gimme a second). For the time being, the Raptors are essentially stuck in NBA purgatory with Andrea playing at an All-Star level, and would be looking at yet another draft pick in the range that got them DeMar and Ed…nice players with potential, absolutely, but left wanting as franchise cornerstones. It’s no coincidence that their two biggest assets, Andrea and Jonas, were acquired with top-5 picks. Even with Andrea’s warts, or Jonas’ uncertainty, these two are far beyond DeMar and Ed in terms of being viable building blocks. The picks you get in the late lottery are generally 6th-man types, players to round out teams on the path to competing (think Tyler Hansbrough and Paul George in Indiana, Jeff Teague in Atlanta, etc).

So what’s a team to do if they’re trying to install a completely new system, philsophy, and culture, but risk players tuning out the message if there isn’t the postitive reinforcement of victory? Dwane Casey is doing a fine job holding players accountable with the dangling carrot of playing time (see: Ed Davis and Amir Johnson of late), but the team also needs those same players playing to develop. This is especially true in a condensed season with less time for practice. I commend the job Casey is doing, but unfortunately have to agree with you that a multi-week injury to Andrea certainly helps the long-term plan here in TO.

So what’s the league to do? They may not care, as teams like Toronto float aimlessly in the mid-to-late lottery, unable to acquire high-end talent outside the draft due to (perceived?) market conditions, tend to be of the mid-market variety. But they should, and here’s a solution to help the problem just a bit – a structured minor league system. I’m not talking an AHL equivalent or a Triple-A affiliate, but the D-League has succeeded to some degree now, and needs a push to become a legitimate NBA-talent breeding ground. It currently makes far more economic sense to travel to Europe if you don’t make an NBA roster, and it’s only now that players are genuinely trying to use the D-League as a legitimate jump-off point to guaranteed NBA deals. As it stands currently, the D-League can be your path to a 10-day contract or an end-of-bench role, but what if ALL NBA teams owned and operated a D-League affiliate? I know this is the goal, and can’t really be achieved without changes to the draft, player rights ownership, and D-League compensation, but it’s a goal that is a win for all parties involved: the Association has another viable basketball property to reach smaller markets, the teams get to develop talent in a system and culture they create and manage, and players have a more clear career path to the NBA without being destitute. Yes, this requires extra rounds in the draft (is anyone arguing?) and more expenditures to deduct from the BRI (uh oh!), but does anyone lose out here? It certainly gives teams a chance to gain a competitive advantage somewhere other than through free-agency or tanking, by competing on development and long-term player scouting/analysis. Thoughts? (Way off topic now, my bad.)

Trev: I like the spirit of your proposal here sir, but would raise an eyebrow at the logistics and structuring of such an arrangement. The primary problem would seem to be that in order for each team to own their own D-League affiliate, you would have to effectively double the size of the league. This would be a rather aggressive move all at once, and I prefer the route that Hornets GM Stern has taken – slowly adding new markets and aligning individual franchises, while pairing some teams together with one affiliate. I think you and the league have the same vision for what the D-League will be in 10 years, but it will not happen overnight, and probably not even without the next CBA (or two) realistically. The major reasons for that are the economics involved. Follow me down that rabbit hole if you will…

As television and broadband make the NBA’s product more accessible in more locations, with ever-improving presentation and production values, the incentive to attend games live drops off dramatically. Now, if that is true for NBA franchises, which at least in theory have the best product in the world in their chosen category (that is, Live Basketball), how are you going to successfully sell and structure franchises in small-to-beyond-small teritary markets across the US? While operating costs may not need to be extremely high for these operations, they still exist, and if NBA owners feel they are already being pinched by the pro game, they will be extremely frugal about taking on an operating budget for a minor league team simply in order to get one or two bench players a year to develop. The NBA owners have long wanted to be like their counterparts in the NFL, and the NFL does not have a minor league system. Instead, it relies entirely on the hypocrisy that is NCAA Football as its farm system, where the NFL owners do not need to spend a cent developing players and players’ brands into ready-made-stars (i.e. the Colts owe Stanford some kind of gift basket for developing Andrew Luck’s star power and gift wrapping the millions in merchandising and ticket sales they are about the inherit without any sunk costs). If the NBA owners want the same model – and all signs say they do, whether it be the age restrictions that are set up to develop the brands of one-and-done freshman stars or the hype March Madness generates for the Draft – then they will be slow to set up a competing development system. That of course makes no mention of the need to redesign NBA arenas to elimate 30% of the seating and improve sightlines for the remaining audience, as well as create added value for in-stadium fans via improved WiFi in the arena, in-seat personal consoles that allow fans to check stats and replays on-demand and at their own control, and other improvements that are needed to make sure fans do not skip the live experience in favor of their massive HD screens at home and League Pass Broadband on their iPads…etc etc etc…I have the feeling this is an entirely different discussion from the one we want to have today though, and should be saved for another time, so ALL THAT SAID, I think you are on the right track, and think the model will resemble what you are saying, but not for another decade or two.

Now, back to the action on the court…

Blake: Fair enough, and I’m sure you’re right about the reality of the situation. Maybe I’ve just read too much Jonah Keri of late and want to grasp at straws for how the Raptors, unable to attract marquee free agents, could possibly win a bit now and a lot later, via some market inefficiency or imagined competitive advantage. The answer, of course, is that they can not, so we’ll spend the next three months cheering but letting out a sigh of relief after any narrow defeat.

Last Raptors question – assume a top-5 pick in the draft this year, assume Jonas is coming over, and assume Andrea is still around (not traded or amnestied)…the team lacks a future PG but the draft is bereft of top-tier guard talent, the team has PF depth for days but the draft has a few potential studs, and there’s a clear need on the wing…do you draft the best talent available (arguably Anthony Davis), draft for need (a Harrison Barnes, perhaps), or trade down to secure an asset and a glaring need, a PG, and roll the dice with a mid-tier pedigree (possibly even Canadian Mych Kabongo)?

Personally, while I’m generally in favor of taking the best talent available, I think Barnes is the white light for us here. He plays the wing, he has motor, IQ, scoring ability, a feel for the clutch, and some other Bilas-isms. I think his stock is hurt a bit by slow starts in back-to-back seasons, and a deep Tar Heels team that requires him to be a soldier more than a general. I’d love your thoughts on this, just five short months in advance of the draft.

Trev: My ideal scenario would see the team do the following:

1. Before the draft, you aggressively try to trade a package built around the key pieces of Demar and Ed, and include anyone else on the roster you need to besides Jonas, this year’s pick, and probaly Andrea. What you are looking for is a legimate starting point guard – obviously you will not get someone on the level of Deron, but if you can find a true point guard for a package of your talent, you do it. That is your new Starting 1, with Jose in the last year of his deal playing the role of backup and still giving you 20 minutes a night.
2. Use the pick on the a wing – Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist…even Rivers, thought I would absolutely hate having to cheer for him – or a bigger athlete (in Draft terms: “Long and with a motor”) who you can convert to a 3 (Perry Jones).
3. Throw the entire Bell/Rogers bank at Eric Gordon as a restricted free-agent. If you miss and can’t get him, offer above-market price to OJ Mayo as a consolation prize.
4. Bring Jonas over and insert him in the rotation as your 6th man initially, with Andrea and Amir as your starters. Amir will undoubtedly get into early foul trouble most nights, so even as a 6th man Jonas should get a crack at 28-32 minutes a game as a rookie in that kind of three-big rotation.
5. Look to round out the roster with another big who fits into Casey’s mold (Louis Amundson maybe?) and is happy to hit the glass and take only playing 12 minutes a night, and if possible a three-point specialist to replace Barbosa.

That strategy leaves you with rotation of: (New Legitimate Starting PG)/ Stud Free Agent SG / Lottery Pick SF / Andrea / Amir, with Jonas / Jose / Kleiza / Backup FA Shooter

Admittedly, that lineup is really difficult to evaluate with the holes in there right now, so for sake of argument, as a placeholder say it looks like this: Ty Lawson / OJ Mayo / Harrison Barnes / Andrea / Amir ; Jonas / Jose / Kleiza / Jodie Meeks

That team, on paper anyway, is now extremely well positioned, not just to make the Playoffs next year, but to have long-term success given how young much of that roster is. Tell me I’m on to something here…

Blake: You’re certainly onto something, but there are a few flaws I can see, so allow me to play Devil’s Advocate just a bit.

1) I don’t see many PGs like this on the market, unless they’re in a Bayless-type situation where they’ve worn out their welcome somewhere. Lawson and Collison may be the only options of this type, and both come from teams that probably wouldn’t be enticed by packages involving depth (more the opposite). I’d cautiously list Devin Harris as a reclamation project possibility (believe he’s a UFA) on a short deal, or possibly just try to find a complement to Jose while the search continues in earnest (I’ve always been a huge Ramon Sessions [UFA] fan). I obviously agree with the need, but am not sure said targets would be available.

2) Absolutely agree. I want Barnes, but MKG is no slouch as a consollation prize.

3) Assuming either would sign an RFA deal with Toronto with the intention of playing here (rather than just driving their price up), I like it. Mayo would follow the cash and a starting role, and I’m a huge fan even if it means overpaying with a 10% Canada Tax. I’d say another option is to wait to see where Gordon goes, as he’s rumored to like his hometown Pacers, which could make a George Hill/Danny Granger/Paul George expendable there. There’s also the option to keep DeMar and cross our fingers he’s better than he’s looked so far here.

4) Check.

5) Check, and no shortage of options out there. Amundson, Robin Lopez (buried in Phoenix somehow), Turiaf (UFA I believe), etc, etc…defensive minded combo big-man to round things out.

Even my scenario may be a little rose-colored, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to have substantial improvement at three positions next year – one of the wing spots through the draft, a PG through trade or free agency (Felton is a UFA, too, yuck), and center via Jonas. Of course, this requires a top-5 pick and un-Colangelo like manuevers, but we can hope.

And hey, who knows what the Atlantic will look like next year, because the Celtics will look 75% different by then, or earlier, or so we’re hearing…

Trev: Master of the segue, this guy. Yes, let’s address the end of the Second Big Three era in Boston.

At present, the Cs are 7-9, which actually has them still 2nd in the Titanic – er, Atlantic Division, but a lowly 7th overall in the East, which is a far cry from what most of us expected of them, even with the impact the schedule would have on their aging legs. More concerning than just their Win-Loss record though is how they have gone about it: they’re at 25th in points per game, 29th in rebounding, and nightly they seem to have more players on the injury report than in uniform. In the first four seasons since the KG trade, Boston has ranked first, second, fifth and second, respectively, in defensive efficiency – right now they still rank highly here, but that is thanks largely to the data being so ridiculously skewed by their last game against Orlando. In the NBA, there is the “Title-window slowly closing” version of getting old, and then there is the “Dorian Gray’s portrait” version of aging, and it seems (much to the delight of the Laker lover in me) that Boston is closer to the latter of those two.

Whoever now wears #5 for the Celtics is not KG – at best he is a KG impersonator, who’s lack of skills, speed, or hops draw even more unflattering attention to his cartoon-like chirping and woofing. Ray takes such good care of himself that I would be very surprised if his injuries presisted, but then again he is 36, and to expect him to bounce back as he might have five years ago is a false hope. Pierce has been improving of late, but through 13 games he is still having the worst statsical year of his Hall-of-Fame career. If the idea for this year is to win a title, obviously you say there is no way you can do it with this roster and you look to retool. But if you step back and assess the value of the assets the Celtics actually have, you quickly find that to break up this team mid-season instead of just letting them slowly diminish and waste away before us as a 8th seed would be a foolish and short-sighted decision.

For instance, look at the market for Garnett. That’s right, there is none. AT ALL. Even if Ainge wanted to move him (and even knowing how impatient Danny can be I doubt he’d be so unloyal given what KG did to reinvent the entire franchise) there are no takers for his $21 million salary. That means you are stuck with him until season’s end. If you wanted to move Allen, that might be possible if the right contender became interested, but if the reaction to trading a role player like Perk last spring is any indication, trading one of the Big Three without shipping them all out together would almost definitely result in a mutiny and a several homicides at the hands of Garnett. Given the lack of buyers out there, it would seem much more likely that Ainge will wait until season’s end, quietly let KG and Ray walk (PLEASE let Ray end up in Chicago) and at that point assess whether or not he can get value for Pierce while using the cap space created from Garnett’s departure to try and bring in pieces to put around Rondo (and no, I don’t think that means Dwight).

I have trust that Ainge is smart enough to retool and avoid the dark ages the franchise saw after the end of the Bird era, but without buyers interested in any of your core components, it is impossible to rebuild your roster on the fly. Better to gain the cap space this summer and move forward with Rondo, and maybe Pierce, and allow this season to play out as a Last Call for this era; if nothing else, watching the team struggle to make the playoffs at all will wash away any false notions of future or current title hopes for this roster that its fans might still harbour.

Blake: Agree with most of what you said, and really C’s fans have no right to complain since they won a title. Even if this team fell off a cliff after this year, you take a title surrounded by mediocrity over years of also-ran status every time. As it is, the C’s probably won one less title than should have been expected, and the Big Three maybe just came together a year too late to really capitilize. But a title’s a title, and flags fly forever.

I think more than outrage or mutiny, the biggest concern for an in-season re-tooling for the Celtics is that, as you said, there’s no market for Garnett. On top of which, if Ainge were to shop KG, Ray, and Pierce, they’d ostensibly be looking for young controllable assets with upside in return, a class of player that contending teams don’t generally have in spades. That is, the teams interested in the services of the Big Three are not the teams with the assets to appease the Celtics; in that sense, they’re better off hitting the reset button with a nearly clean cap in the offseason and rebuilding around Rondo/Pierce (or dealing Rondo too and creating a completely new identity).

One other note is that even in their current incarnation, the Celtics are a troublesome team in a playoff series. Yes, they’re old and thin, but veteran defensive-minded teams are tough outs in the playoffs, and they certainly wouldn’t be a first round push-over. They’re not a title contender, but it’s possible the cap space, showing loyalty, and two rounds of playoff revenue are enough incentive to keep the core together through June.

And Ray Allen may have some say here as Danny Ainge’s future successor.

We’re already getting a bit long in the tooth, so let me give you the option here for our last talking point: you’re free to vent about your Lakers, Kobe’s shot selection, Pau’s complaining, and Jay Caspian Kang’s disappointing Kobe piece, or we can scratch our heads at how Mike D’Antoni has somehow put together a team that plays a brand of basketball right around the level of Sacramento and Washington (trainwreck viewing value aside) in terms of excitement.

Trev: …is there even a question which of these I want to dedicate my attention to? In the spirit of fairness – knowing I will probably go on about 8-9 paragraphs too long as soon as I start talking Lakers – I will let you address the issues in Hollywoodland first.

Blake: Perhaps I thought maybe you had vented to someone else in some forum and would opt for the Empire State theme. My mistake, I should have known better. Alright well allow me mostly to play Chris Paul to your Blake Griffin and send a few lobs out there…

1) Kobe Bryant’s current usage rate is a career high 35.9% (meaning 36% of Laker possessions end in a Bryant shot or turnover). Is this the cause of the Lakers relative offensive inefficiency (14th in the NBA), or a symptom of the rest of the team just being devoid of offense? Gasol is, of course, a valuable offensive talent, and Bynum has looked in career-best form, but outside of the Big One and Medium Two, there have been negligible contributions from the Barneses and World Peaces, let alone the Goudelocks and Ebankses.

2) Pau is crying about the location of his touches, requesting more offense run through him in the low post rather than at the pinch point or the elbow. Is this a fair request, or is it on Pau to initiate more offense for himself? He’s always been relatively passive in demanding his, but his usage rate is down to a career low 18.7%.

3) For all the criticisms of Mike Brown in Cleveland, he got sterling defensive results out of a pretty rag-tag crew. He has the Lakers at 7th in defensive efficiency, but they were 6th in each of the past two years. Is this stagnation a clue that Brown was overrated as a defensive coach, a further sign of the Lakers’ eroding athleticism, or merely too small a sample to determine (keeping in mind that 19 games is 29% of the Lakers’ 2011-12 schedule)?

Trev: My hestitation in addressing any Knick related questions is based on two factors – factor the first, that I deeply want this team to succeed and want to root for them in the playoffs, therefore my ability to accept their mediocrity and address it rationally is weighed down by my own self-denial about their struggles (i.e. I would say something like “Yes, they are 4 or 5 games under .500 overall dating back to last season since the Melo trade, but that is still a very small sample size of games in the overall picture of things!”); factor the second, which is probably shaded by the point I just addressed, is that I really do believe that Baron is going to make a huge difference for them on offense when he comes back and that he is heading towards one of the great reclamation seasons on record. So let’s come back to them in March when they are still flawed and failing and address it then, yes?

As for your Laker points:

1) I am the world biggest Kobe apologist, so I am obviously not going to pick Option 1, but I will admit that it has some merit, but I think it’s overstated. My truthful opinion is that the loss of the Triangle is to blame for that, seconded by the overall lack of offensive talent for most of the roster, which is even further driven by the lack of offensive schemes from the coaching staff (think back to 1-4 High with LeBron and the Cavs…), and then finally you arrive at the idea that Bean is shooting too much and screwing up their offensive flow. My real problem with saying it is all on Kobe and his high usage rate is based on a few things: that his assist total is still above his career average; that his PER is still the highest it has ever been in his career, such that even if he is forcing things he is mostly doing so successfully (PER historically has loved players like LeBron, CP3, and Manu who ‘move the ball around’ and are unselfish, and not Kobe, who is a ball-stopper); and finally, because of the reality that almost no one else on the roster is used to or able to create their own shot outside of Pau. The Triangle covered that last fact up for the better part of a decade – it’s motion and movement created shots for Fish and a whole host of others who do not have the ability to create their own shot. Now, without it, you are seeing that they have two bigs who need to be fed the ball in the mid-to-low block to be effective at all, meaning they are almost never responsible for creating their own shot. They then have a Point who has never been able to create his own offense, and that was even when he was young and effective (there is a reason he went to Sloan in Utah when he left LA years back – he is a great defender but he is only a system guy on offense). And then they have a bunch of guys who have no idea what to do outside of trusting the Triangle, so they just stand around and there is very little movement, leaving Kobe to do the heavy lifting, which he is more than happy to obilge with since he is a born scorer and probably wishes he could shoot even more than he does and get away with it. In a sick way it’s not unlike the Raps situation: you have Bargs, who commands a double team, and then maybe one or two other guys that can create for themselves, so when that star is out, you often times have three of your five guys on the floor who the defense doesn’t even need to check. In case you aren’t sure, that is a very bad/sad/dangerous thing.

2) You want the ball? You address Kobe and Coach Brown directly, not through the media. Pau admitted at the end of the interview where he was whining about his touches that he has never brought this up to Kobe or the coaching staff. I am not a genius, but something tells me you are probably better served asking those people directly than passive aggressively going to the media first. That said, does he have a point? Maybe. But Pau hasn’t been “Pau” for some time now – it is not a new thing, but instead dates back to about the All-Star break last year. I am sure the trade-that-never-was this December did not help that relationship, and he has been a professional up to the point you can’t compare him to Lamar and say he is an emotional child, but I would say that if Pau wants to eat he needs to go get his own food – meaning, STOP shooting threes (he has taken more already this year than all of last season), STOP letting yourself get pushed out to 19 feet on your initial post-ups, and STOP being willing to disappear for entire quarters (as he did against Lob City in the third after a brilliant first half). Pau is a very special talent, and there are two banners in STAPLES that are there because of him…but he is also a bit of a coward, and wishes that his brilliance and intellect and complexity was appreciated more by everyone. I would much rather be friends with Pau Gasol than Kobe Bryant based on their personalities and interests, but I would rather follow Kobe into battle – Pau I would follow to the opera, or a museum maybe.

3) I think Brown’s defensive schemes are going to prove themselves in the spring, and that he was a good hire for what was available and what ailed the Lakers in general last season (heart and defense), but he is still deeply flawed in many ways. The good news is that it makes him no different than every coach not named Popovich, so it doesn’t hurt the Lakers as much as you might think. I believe that getting this group to play defense the same way as they did last season is a success in itself given that they are another year older and only have Bynum as an elite athlete on that side of the ball, and even then his awkwardness still scares me. The test is not going to be the regular season, but in the spring when the game slows down even further – will they improve then. We will see…

Finally, last night it struck me that there is a great passage from Julius Casear that describes Kobe’s worldview right now in this, his “Man on Fire” season. He is cold, calculated, and wants his throne back – first the title of “Best Player Alive” (as opposed to the title “Seventh Best According to ESPN”) then of Champion, but I do think it goes in that order sadly. Anyways, I wanted to share it because it will make me sound literate and well-read, and is as close to an admission that he is working too hard as you will ever get from me:

CAESAR Let me have men about me that are fat;
Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o’ nights:
Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look;
He thinks too much: such men are dangerous.
ANTONY Fear him not, Caesar; he’s not dangerous;
He is a noble Roman and well given.
CAESAR Would he were fatter! But I fear him not:
Yet if my name were liable to fear,
I do not know the man I should avoid
So soon as that spare Cassius. He reads much;
He is a great observer and he looks
Quite through the deeds of men: he loves no plays,
As thou dost, Antony; he hears no music;
Seldom he smiles, and smiles in such a sort
As if he mock’d himself and scorn’d his spirit
That could be moved to smile at any thing.
Such men as he be never at heart’s ease
Whiles they behold a greater than themselves,
And therefore are they very dangerous.

Blake: Wow, Caesar, eh? I’m absolutely stunned that the State of the Mamba quote came from Shakespeare instead of Hova or Bruce Wayne, but I guess we’ve all got to grow. Uhh, except Kobe, although I suppose you could suggest his reversion to his pre-Pau ways is still growth, given the efficiency gains you mentioned, his experience, etc. And again, I asked those questions earlier mostly as a volley for you (Kevin Love, what up), and my actual feelings fall somewhere between your points and the Kobe vitriol on point 1. I agree completely with the Pau analysis, and I kind of suggested you’d head that way when I referenced his usage numbers, and we all know his self-imposed limitations as an aggressor. As for Mike Brown, I think I’m mostly just still shocked Brian Shaw wasn’t given a shot, although he must be in Kobe’s bad books somehow to get skipped over.

As an aside, I just finished Shaq Uncut, which was awful. I’m not sure the point of biographies if they’re not going to be written from a sincere and honest point of view, and it’s why I think biographies tend to read better when players further from retirement write them, as they can gain some post-career perspective. Regardless of Shaq’s shortcomings as a “writer” and as someone coming to terms with the realities of his past, he did detail at length how valuable B-Shaw was to the team’s chemistry in the Kobe/Shaq days. Taking Shaq’s word certainly didn’t make my opinion of Shaw any higher, but it did reinforce that he seemed a legitimate candidate from people with inside knowledge, and not just to the armchair-GMs and analysts.

Anyway, moving on from the Lakeshow, I guess we should start to wrap this up so let me fire you three quick-answer questions, I’ll respond in parentheses, and we’ll call it a day. Fair?

1) Let’s just wade into it a bit – Amare and Melo: offensively incompatible, or just figuring it out still? (I say incompatible – between Melo’s inability to compromise his Iso touches and Amare’s deteriorating athleticism, they’re upside is their current form +10-15%.)

2) Blake for Dwight: Chris Broussard wet-dream only, or legitimate option for both sides? (Sure, the Magic would love it, but I can’t see how the Clippers could justify moving the man who single-handedly brought them back to relevance. His name should forever be a non-starter in trade talks.)

3) Ricky Rubio is shooting 37.3% from the floor even with a hot start, and as expected this is his biggest weakness: kiss of death on the road to superstardom, or merely leaving himself an area to improve upon his 17.36 PER for future seasons? (Obviously an eventual stud, and my hope is that an offseason with NBA shooting coaches can help him re-create his stroke, which his awkward. Still, a 17.36 PER when you’re shooting sub-40 is ridiculous.)

Trev: 1) Figuring it out and waiting for a creator (I am looking at you Baron, otherwise Steve is heading over this summer) that can get them both looks in position to be effective.

2) Broussard blowing smoke – I doubt they would move Blake given what he has meant to their rebranding; I see their commitment to Jordan this summer – who happens to be Blake’s best friend in the league – as a sign that their love for Dunkbot 5000 knows no bounds.

3) He will improve. He will never be the natural shooter Nash is, but he is every bit the playmaker it seems, and is a better rebounder. I expect him to turn into something very special in about two years.

And as a postscript, I would remind you that my mother saw to it that I was reading Shakespeare at almost the same age as I was Batman, so a quote from the Bard shouldn’t throw you too much. When I start dropping quotes from Voltaire, then you should be concerned. But I figured since you did ask that it was worth ending on my absolutely favorite “quote” from Bruce Wayne (can a fictional character actually be sourced for a quote?) that happens to perfectly sum up Kobe’s mindset this year:

Wayne: They told me there was nothing out there, nothing to fear. But the night my parents were murdered I caught a glimpse of something. I’ve looked for it ever since. I went around the world, searched in all the shadows. And there is something out there in the darkness, something terrifying, something that will not stop until it gets revenge… Me.

Doing pre-game for a change, to see if we can maybe avoid the Raptors terrible 1-14 record in games I do post-game coverage for. Still, I’m thinking the frontcourt dominance of the Jazz is too much for the Raptors to handle, even with Bargnani back.

Check it out!

The Raptors are now 1-14 when I’m covering games for Raptors Republic. If they ever get competitive, I should probably quit, in the best interest of the team. Anyway, the post-game report is there.

Check it out.

I got a puppy, named José. He is awesome but frustrating. Much to the chagrin of commenter John, I used his training as an analogy for this young, inexperienced, and frustrating Raptors team following an embarrassing loss to the Nets.

Check it out.

So Trev and I got talking when the NBA announced that an agreement had been reached on a tentative deal. It started to get detailed, so we formalized it a bit and decided to turn it into a piece for the site. 7500 words later, we thought it was time to split it into two pieces and post it. Check it out below, and click here to jump back to Part 1.

Blake: Sorry for the delay in response brotherman…got caught in the Leafs game last night and a busy morning at work today. Such is life, when you can’t bring yourself to pull the trigger on a commitment to writing full-time (take the leap, Blake). Allow me to quickly hit on a few of your points before I send the discussion back your way for some on-court back-and-forth.

*Salient points on Stern/Hunter, and I definitely see the need to qualify the impact on their legacies. My dismissal of it was probably more about being tired of that narrative and wanting to focus on the good stuff, so to speak. To summate quickly, I see no way Hunter sticks around long enough to see a verdict rendered on his third CBA, either due to exhaustion or a push for a change from the membership. I’m curious as to where all of this has left D-Fish, too, as he’s come off well to me personally, but I wonder if the media ploys calling him, in nicer terms, an Uncle Tom, convinced the players it was true. Thoughts on D-Fish’s future?

*The digital/global discussion is probably one we should do another e-mail exchange about for a piece in the future, when we can commit ample time for research, etc. I agree wholeheartedly that my Rogers Digital Cable is completely useless except for HD Sports….shows can be downloaded or watched online, I can stream movies to my TV via PS3, etc. Sports will always hold an advantage over “traditional” TV in that regard, and may be the last thing carrying the telco era once the primary Prime Time viewers become of technological age (e.g. in five years when we’re, gasp, 30). I obviously agree that the NBA is way beyond the other leagues (to wit, MLB blocks copyrighted YouTube content if they find it…no use for that free advertising of your sport!), and it’s a competitive advantage they leverage well. My concern comes from the fact that this will be a primary growth area for the league between now and 2017 when either side can opt out of the deal. Basically, I’m just curious as to how this was covered in the CBA and to what degree of specificity, as it has the potential to be a contentious issue later on (especially for those players who don’t fit into the group of superstars you mentioned, those who are unable to leverage their images as a brand beyond their $3M salary). Just out of curiosity, I’d love to see a PDF of the actual CBA float out when completed and see if there is any detail at all beyond “part of BRI, part of net BR-expenses.”

Okay let’s focus on the court a bit now, in case there’s anyone left reading at this point. As for the schedule – agree to disagree. I see your side for sure, I’m just itching for some ball and being selfish and greedy. Your way makes more sense from a business standpoint, but I prefer mine from the vantage point of someone who is OK with watching 15 hours of basketball on a “family” day.

Wanted to send this quote from Larry Coon your way and get your reaction as a Laker fan. After that, let’s touch on the developing Paul/Howard situations, and the Amnesty rule, and maybe wrap this thing up with a brief Raptors chat.

For example, the Lakers’ tax bill in 2011 (when the tax was dollar-for-dollar) was about $19.9 million. Under the new system, being that far over the tax line would cost them $44.68 million. If they were a repeat offender (paying tax at least four of the previous five years) they would owe $64.58 million! Taxpaying teams have a smaller midlevel exception, can acquire less salary in trade, and cannot use the biannual exception. Starting in 2013-14, teams more than $4 million above the tax level cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade transaction.

Trev: My reaction as a Lakers fan starts with the self-delusional notion that, Luxury Tax be damned, Dr. Buss will continue to pay to produce a winner, because that is what the LA market demands and expects from him. Simply put, the Lakers are not allowed to be average. Buss’ reaction the last and only time they missed the playoffs in Kobe’s career is proof enough for anyone that he will pay for a winner no matter the cost: it drove him to back a Brinks truck up to Big Chief Triangle’s house in Montana and go back to trying to restrict his son Joey “Billy Madison” Buss’ shared power with Kupchak (which along with Chris Wallace being terrible at his job landed them Gasol). Not unlike the Yankees, the Lakers fans will not accept less than excellence, and pay the sort of ticket prices that allow that excellence to be bought and paid for. They are the most profitable team in the league for a reason, and if they have to start dipping into their margin to pay the tax, so be it.

Once I calm down and begin to remove emotion from my argument, my reaction actually begins with begrudging acknowledgment that the new system takes them out of the Dwight sweepstakes entirely (the Clippers will probably sign either him or Deron now), extends into the sad realization that they will have to waste their Amnesty clause in order to get rid of Metta World Peace, and collapse in the acceptance that there is now little to no hope for Kobe to get reinforcements after this season. I can pretend to be optimistic and trot out the rumors that Kobe’s trip to Germany have left his knee in the best shape it’s been in years and that he is jumping out of the gym again, but that seems like fool’s gold. The Lakers window is now this season and maybe next, and that is likely it. What that means is that the Mamba and Mike Brown had better get on the same page immediately, and that Brown’s reputation as a defensive guru had better be well earned. You can make the case that his Cleveland team’s outperformed their talent level and were consistently excellent because of their defense, thus it would follow that maybe he can win with the considerable talent upgrade he will get in LA. Then again it’s just as easy to point to those teams winning because of the King and in spite of Brown, which is just about the least encouraging thing I can think of. Wait, that’s a lie. The least encouraging thing I can think of is the fact that a compressed schedule and less rest between games almost guarantees a significant injury to Bynum.

Okay, now I am just depressed. Dammit.

Will throw it back to you on your thoughts on CP3/Dwight and general view on who is an Amnesty target, which I will counter after I finish ripping through this fifth of Jack and pack of cigarettes in an attempt comfort my “Blue Valentine”-like despair…

(In Ron Bergundy’s voice) Breaking News: Time to roll-back the clock 20 minutes to my self-delusion on the Luxury Tax issue:

Rule: No adjustments would be made to the luxury tax payout system ($1-to-$1) in the first two years of the agreement. The cap/tax threshold won’t be any lower than it was last season.

For the time being then, the Lakers aren’t forced into sweeping change and will still be able to do a significant sign and trade (ala Carmelo). Within two years though, they will lose that ability for adding depth. So, all in on these next two years it is.

Blake: The Lakers, and a few other teams (specifically the Spurs, Mavs and Celtics) have to see that two year luxury waiver period as a flashing “all-in” sign ala Teddy KGB’s Oreo Tell. Veteran teams without young reinforcements in the pipeline, with a history of spending at or over the luxury tax line, will no doubt jump in feet first while they still can. I’d hope you’d see the smarter of these teams load up on any ‘bad’ contract that expires before July 1, 2013 (when the new luxury tax rules will be in effect) and then prepare to wipe the slate clean with a more fiscally reasonable model from then on. I could thus see the potential for a Howard mega-deal involving Bynum and Turkoglu’s brutal contract, although I think the rumblings I’ve heard of a Prokhorov-mandated mega-offer for Dwight (centered around Brook Lopez and taking back Turk’s contract) make the most sense.

With the two year freeze on luxury increases but the immediate initiation of the stricter trading rules, it will be interesting to see how teams balance using their Amnesty waive, which can be held until future years (so long as it’s used on a contract from the old CBA). It must be a tough decision for high-spending teams, whether to pull the trigger now to increase flexibility, or hold on to it for later when the luxury tax penalties become immediate.

I touched on Howard above, and I think he’ll go for sure. He’s been too wishy-washy thus far, and the Magic have no help ready. Dealing Dwight and finding a taker for Turk could allow them a fairly quick re-tooling. As for CP3, the only way I see him staying with the Hornets through the year is if the league puts the clamps down on the issue, basically holding him hostage to attract a buyer for the team. On the open market, where he wants to play (New York) makes no sense, as they have no assets and he’d take a significant pay cut as a free agent. He has apparently given pause at the notion of a Celtics extension, probably seeing a future without KG/Pierce/Ray and him in the role of mid-2000s Truth. Oklahoma makes a ton of sense from an assets standpoint (Westbrook in return), a basketball standpoint (he’s a slightly better fit with KD due to his selflessness and D), and a location standpoint (don’t forget that New Orleans played out of OKC post-Katrina)….but for whatever reason, my gut tells me that won’t happen either.

Your thoughts here? As for amnesty cuts, I’m more curious as to your thoughts on potential strategies for savvy managers or under-cap teams, as the list of cut candidates has been visited many times across the ‘net so far. Again, the amnesty cut can be made at any time over the life of the CBA, as long as it is used on a contract signed under the previous CBA. This could allow teams without a poisonous contract (e.g. the Raptors, debatably) or well under the cap (e.g. the Kings) to leverage their financial flexibility further.

Trev: Interesting take on the plight of the Magic. We all know they are heading into a sequel of the Carmelo movie from last season, whereby their star’s refusal to openly acknowledge that he wants out will submarine the team’s morale and focus up until the point it overwhelms the team and a mid-season trade is unavoidable. But, to where? At first glance I agree with you that BK could be a potential destination given Prokhorov’s expectations, but I would be cautious to say it’s a lock since Dwight would almost definitely require Deron to commit to staying before he accepted a trade there.

Not sure if you read Dwight’s Esquire Q+A last month but doing so makes it painfully clear that he wants to follow in Shaq’s footsteps as the league’s biggest personality by extending his brand into over industry verticals. Film, television, commercials…he wants to expand his profile outside of basketball. In his own words: “There’s more you can do in a bigger place…I just think about what’s going to be best for what I want to accomplish in my life. And I don’t want that door to close on me, wherever that door is. I don’t want it to close.” To me at least, that screams “Get me to NY or LA so I can be in Kazaam 2.” That is why I referenced the Clippers earlier. I can definitely see a scenario whereby Dwight teams up with Blake and Gordon to try and make the Clips more than ‘LA’s Other Team’ (something that we’ve heard will happen for at least the last 10 years by the way. I am pretty sure the ‘Clips on the Rise’ storyline ranks right up there with “Detox” in the ‘Believe it when I see it’ scale).

As for Paul, I hear you that evidence would seem to point to the Knicks having no play to acquire him…but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. If they let Chauncey’s contract expire after this season and use their Amnesty clause to take back a piece from NO that they don’t want. Thinking outside the box here, they could actually go acquire someone who was already Amnestied (I feel like that is not a real word, but just go with it) like Andris Biedrins, or hell, even Brandon Roy, to make themselves more appealing to trade with. While this all seems unlikely, the idea that they would land Melo seemed like a pipe-dream once upon a time as well. When it comes to Paul to NYK, I am now in full on “I’m not saying, I’m just saying” mode. I don’t see Deron being made available for the reasons mentioned above, and because Prokhorov and Hova would rather let him walk than help out their soon-to-be cross town rivals.

For what it’s worth, I would actually love to see Paul end up in OKC. That almost makes too much sense strictly from a basketball perspective. If the media is to be believed (a big ‘if’, but still), the riff between KD and Westbrook has only gotten worse this off-season. I will continue to wish that this isn’t true, but when whispers turn into full on chatter and public speculation, you have to give some legitimacy to the idea that it’s a relationship that can’t be fixed. Having said that though, I can’t see Presti pulling the trigger on any trade that dramatically alters the core of his team until he absolutely has no other choice, and as much as we all like to over-react in predicting doom and gloom for the Thunder, the fact remains that they are the scariest young team in the league, and while going out in 5 to the Mavs left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, they are still operating ahead of schedule and weren’t really that far from making a trip to the Finals. You simply cannot walk away from the table too soon if you are Presti, not when the team you have in place still looks like the odds-on-favorite to own the Western Conference for the next decade.

Would love to hear your view on who could benefit most from the Amnesty clause, as well as just how gawd-awful our dear Raps will end up being (“Season Seat Holders since 2011!”), and will respond in kind.

Blake: I’ve read the Dwight article, and I think it makes New Jersey/Brooklynn a legitimate possibility. While the Clippers angle is a nice story, I’d think he liks the “Mecca’s 2nd Team” + Deron + Win-Hungry Owner better than “LA’s 2nd Team” + Blake/Gordon + Worst Owner Ever. Plus you just know he’ll start missing 30+ games a season due to The Un-Named Clippers Curse. Given the tighter restrictions on player movement now, I think Dwight-to-NJ is in the best interest of Dwight, Prokhorov, AND Deron, as all of the parties’ interests align enough.

Good point about the Knicks acquiring pieces simply to deal for Paul….maybe due to Dolan’s influence on the lockout proceedings, Stern owes him a favor. And maybe the Hornets let the Knicks know that they’re interested in Mid-Level Player X, Amnesty Cut Player Z, and Young Player Q. The Knicks are able to use their mid-level, put a claim in on a cut player (assuming they’re below the luxury tax at that point), and can try and move some of their recent picks or Chauncey’s expiring deal to acquire a young piece and make that trade. Sketchier moves have happened, but let’s just say if Paul ends up in New York, we’re not getting the whole story.

Interesting issue about the amnesty clause to throw your way: a friend at work claimed that he felt bad for the players who get cut. Ignoring that they still get paid, he basically said the cut acts as an indictment on the player and puts a stink of sorts on them. While I agree it’s a referendum on the player’s current value against their current salary, I don’t think it’s necessarily the mark of death for a career, not even close. Brandon Roy is a perfect example, a guy who still holds tremendous value to a team, he’s just far too great an injury risk to pay max money too. Another example, though I don’t think he’ll be cut, would be Jose Calderon, someone who isn’t grossly overpaid, but overpaid relative to his value on his current team (a rebuilding Raptors squad). I think this type of cut could actually be a blessing, giving some players (Roy, Biedrins, etc) a fresh start without the pressures of a mammoth contract. This goes doubly for players who clear the waiver process and are then free to sign where they want.

To answer your question, I think the two biggest winners are Brandon Roy and any small-market team below the luxury tax line. Roy wins with a fresh start and the possibility to be a huge comeback story (although he apparently loves Portland and doesn’t want to leave, he was never going to perform to that contract again). For said small-market teams, the waiver process gives them a legitimately fair chance at talented players who they normally couldn’t acquire due to exorbitant free agent prices, poor talent attraction, or other reasons. I’m thinking a team like Milwaukee or Indiana, in specific.

Your thoughts on the amnesty winners/losers? And then yes, finally, we’ll touch on the Raps and maybe close this thing out for the time being.

Trev: Let’s go rapid fire on some thoughts I have on your last correspondence:

•I agree in principal that BK is a better destination, but I think ignoring LA undersells Dwight’s view of himself as a movie star in waiting (See: The amazing new Call of Duty commercial). That happens in LA, not NY.

•If something suspicious happens with the Knicks, it won’t be because Stern owes Dolan a favour necessarily, but because the L in general is more valuable, more exciting, and more relevant culturally when New York matters. New York is New York and nothing else is, which means the Knicks being relevant for a decade (as they would be if they acquired Paul) is to the league’s overall benefit, small-markets be damned.

•Also, while it’s a bit on the Conspiracy Theory side, remember that the league owns the Hornets right now, and while taking away their most valuable asset would seem counter-intuitive, if they don’t have a buyer in place by the trading deadline that scenario becomes very interesting.

•Jose is not “relatively overpaid”, unless by “relatively” you mean “wildly, grossly, insulting”. If that’s your intention, then sure, “relatively” it is. I know first-hand that he is one of the best ambassadors for the team the franchise has had in its sad-sack history and that he is a first-class person and a character guy. But so is Luke Walton. And both of them are paid more than ten-times their value in the open-market. So, please, don’t sell me on the notion that Jose is still worth even half his salary or a viable starting point – it’s laughable. If BC had been successful in getting MJ to take him in the Chandler deal it would have been one of the all-time fleecing. Even Kupchak would have stood and applauded. Great guy? Definitely. Borderline 9th-man on even a decent team? That too. (Now if you want to debate he isn’t the most overpaid guy on the roster, that is another argument…*cough*Amir *cough*)

•That is one sympathetic friend you have. He is going to feel sorry for multimillionaires who are grossly overpaid based on their actual performance and who have never lived up to their value, BUT they will still be paid in full of the terms of their contract, plus get a fresh start somewhere else with a fan-base that doesn’t hate them for underperformance? Seems like they are still getting a pretty fair shake to me. Rashard, Gilbert, and the rest of the Amnesty All-Stars would be right if they were to say that no one forced the teams to sign them to those deals, and that they are not responsible for the owners spending recklessly because it is their job and their agents’ job to get the best offer possible. I don’t disagree at all. But that doesn’t excuse them from the expectations such a contract brings. You sign up for it, you sign up for those expectations and the ridicule and scorn that potentially may come with not performing up to the value of that contract. That’s the trade-off. I am all for getting paid and maximizing your earning potential, but you live with being accountable to that contract. And yes, that even apply to guys like Roy and Greg Oden who are not directly at fault for their underperformance. Even though they were injured and did not wilfully underachieve, they underachieved nonetheless. For fans to begrudge that fact is fair in my eyes, since NBA contracts are guaranteed. Now if teams could cut players who were injured and not honour their contracts, that would be a different matter. But that is not the system in place; they are still paid in full despite never meeting expectations.

Amnesty Thoughts: The winners here are NBA GMs, since they do not need to fire this magic bullet immediately and can keep it in the chamber (so to speak) for later, as a type of insurance for down the road, which means they can continue to sell future projections and what-ifs without having to make tough decisions right away. The modified waiver process is obviously a huge help to mid-to-small market teams that might not otherwise attract free-agents, but the value of that is easily over-blown considering at most it will apply to 29 guys around the league. Specific winners here are the Cavs (can drop Baron), Baron himself (can go play for a winner potentially), Joe Dumars (who can wipe one of his many mistakes off the board), the Lakers (can drop Ron Ron or Luke), and the Magic (Gil). If Rashard’s agent is to be believed, Washington isn’t going to use their option on him, to which I….have no words….

Raptors Thoughts: This really deserves its own message thread (Spoiler alert: This is precisely what is going to happen before the season), but just at a high-level, I suspect this year will hurt, but not nearly as much as expected. I don’t think they will be last in NBA, or even in the East, put it that way. “Toronto, where managing awful expectations happens.” I expect DeMar to take another step forward with better D and something approaching range (anything is an improvement after his near-record futility last year) to emerge as someone who could be the third-best player on a great team. I expect Andrea to play/sulk his way out of town and make us all long for next season when Jonas will get here. I expect Ed Davis to continue to grow and be secretly one of the most interesting young talents in the entire league. I expect Jose to cause me to break at least four TV remotes. I expect Amir to somehow average a foul every 4 minutes. And I expect Casey to wonder out loud what he got himself into. All of that said, I expect to enjoy the process of watching these youngsters. We have no false expectations about playoffs this year; so often this franchise has half-committed to winning now without going all-in. This is the first full-on demolition and reconstruction project, which is the only way the franchise might actually improve long-term. That at least has me excited – to watch these young guys take their lumps and occasionally stumble into moments of brilliance.

And with that I will turn it over to you good sir. Good night and good luck.

Blake: I assume the good night and good luck ends your side of the correspondence, so despite your bashing of my Jose comment, I’m afforded closing remarks and therefore the last laugh. To which I put forth…nothing, this has been too fun and long overdue (and shows potential for a running feature, if we can trim our word counts by about 400%) for me to fire back and homer-ishly defend my man Jose as an adequate NBA point guard.

One quick question back on the Lakers regarding amnesty – is Metta the best option? With Walton a potential retirement candidate, it might behove the franchise to wait it out and see how the Walton situation plays out, and just how crazy Ron-Ron has gotten with the time off. Maybe they can save it for Turkoglu if they make a Godfather play for Dwight?

Raptors Thoughts: It’s going to be tough, for sure. I know a lot of fans are clamouring for a Tyson Chandler type, but I think it would be extremely short-sighted (and typical of Colangelo’s regime so far) to spend money on someone who won’t make a meaningful (read: winning a playoff round) difference, and who would then block our best prospect in Year 2. It’s my sincere hope that DeMar can take a leap even greater than your anticipating, to a legitimate NBA #2-man. He came so far offensively last year and became one of the most dangerous mid-range players in the league. Yes, his range should have been priority #1 in the extended offseason, and I pray to the basketball Gods that he can eventually get that clip up around 33-35%, not so that he’s a threat there, but so defenses at least respect it, which would open up his arsenal off the dribble. I would hope that Casey can help with his D, but it has never seemed to be an issue of commitment (Casey is apparently big on defensive effort and accountability), so Casey will have to be a teacher as well as a motivator. Ed should take some steps as well, and he has “eventually underrated by casual fans and overrated by Raptors diehards” written all over him, which I’m excited about to be honest. I’ll stop there as I’ll have a full Raptors piece sometime soon.

Thanks for doing this with me man, let’s make it a regular (and more brief) endeavour. Looking forward to next Sunday’s Raptors Season Ticket Draft Day. Stay classy.

So Trev and I got talking when the NBA announced that an agreement had been reached on a tentative deal. It started to get detailed, so we formalized it a bit and decided to turn it into a piece for the site. 7500 words later, we thought it was time to split it into two pieces and post it. Check it out below, and click here to jump to Part 2.

Blake: So, the NBA’s nuclear winter ended up being more bar fight than Cold War. We can get into the finer points of the deal and the 2011-12 (2012?) season repercussions shortly, but the thing that has been on my mind foremost has been the reaction to the end of the lockout. It seems the die-hards have completely forgiven the NBA immediately, and just recalibrated their internal basketball calendars to begin on Christmas Day, while there seems to be no reaction whatsoever from the casual fan base.

My question to you is this – is this a reaction the NBA should be concerned about, or is this how the NBA always operates? That is, are we among a group of die-hard loyalists and merely flanked by observers once their attention has turned from the NFL and college football? Or has this short but highly-publicized (read: annoying) lockout driven away some of the more casual fans, similar to the NHL’s lockout from 2004-05?

Trev: Before attempting to address your questions, it would be disingenuous to not acknowledge that you and I represent two of the most ‘die-hard loyalists’ going. So while I would like to think of myself as a discerning individual with enough perspective to approach this from the viewpoint of the casual fan, my perception of reality may colour my observations throughout this dialogue…

HAVING SAID THAT, I would think that the NBA should be concerned, but not traumatized by the non-reaction of the culture overall. For the most part, Joe Public in North America cares about basketball for three periods a year: Christmas Day, when they are desperate for an excuse to not have to talk to their extended family; March, when the Madness consumes us all; and finally in late-May through June, when the quest for the Larry O’Brien nears its conclusion.

All three of those peak interest points remain intact. In fact, I think you could easily argue that the Christmas matchups will now hold the most appeal to the casual consumer since the first Shaq-Kobe matchup in 2004. “The Decision” spurred awareness and interest from the general public in rallying against all things Miami. While our A.D.D. culture may have moved on to the next scandal and the next set of villains, it would be only reasonable to expect that casual fans will tune in expressly to see Team N.W.O., er, the Heat, get embarrassed by having to watch Dallas’ ring ceremony. That, plus a relevant team in New York and the omnipresent Lakers’ Christmas game will drive traffic to ABC in droves.

As far as I can tell, the missed games and public posturing enraged us, the die-hard consumer, but the casual observer was too busy with the NFL, college football, the NHL’s continued rise, and everything else to become truly venomous about this situation. And I do not think that ‘non-reaction’ is as damning to the NBA as it is just a sign that football trumps everything, always (and maybe forever). As long as the NBA was working by the time Rodgers and the Pack won their second Super Bowl, they were going to be fine.

When the NHL went dark for a season, they were not in the same position in terms of talent that the NBA finds itself in. Yes, they had game changers on-deck in the draft. But while everyone north of the 49th knew that Sidney was the Next One and that Ovie was the Russian-who-plays-the-most-like-he’s-Canadian-ever, the casual fan didn’t know them yet. They weren’t brands you could build on at that point. The last Stanley Cup winner came from Tampa of all places. The Great One was now several years removed from the game. They were not well positioned to make people forget the labour dispute based on excellence on the ice.

Similarly, the last NBA work stoppage in 1999 came at the worst possible moment for the league: God had just retired after winning his sixth ring. To the average fan, Jordan was basketball, plain and simple. Proof of that is that the maddening “Search for the Next Jordan” dominated the conversation around basketball for years, even with Shaq and Kobe setting up a dynasty. Think about that – MJ’s hold on the hearts and minds of typical fans was such that many were disinterested in the league at a time when history was being made.

Today, the NBA is blessed with the best crop of young stars it has ever had, both in terms of talent, playing style, and general likeability. The league has always been about building superstars and making players into brands, and this group has embraced the power of that operating model. Blake, Durant, Rose, Dwight, Amare, CP3…the list of exciting young players entering their prime is as deep as it has ever been in league history. Unlike the late ‘90s, when the Riley Knicks turned the NBA into a street fight, the way the game is played today is always aesthetically beautiful .

(And that is to say nothing of the Super Friends. LeBron’s brand is arguably the biggest the league has seen since MJ – yes, bigger than Shaq, bigger than Kobe. Everyone has an opinion or three about his every move. And he may not be the best player on his own team. That brings a kind of awareness and interest you can’t buy.)

I have already written way more than necessary – can you tell I’m excited for the league to come back? – so I will turn the reigns over to you. What is your reaction to our collective immediate forgiveness? Who do you think had their legacy most affected by this mess? Why did the owners’ give back on so many issues that were non-starters just last week? And was Stern’s rhetoric overblown, or real? For my part I’ll admit that based on his tone I was fairly sure that there were only two ways this could play out:

1. The league’s preferred scenario, whereby Fisher and Hunter would become the father and son team from “The Road,” journeying together across a grim post-apocalyptic landscape, focused only on survival.

2. The infinitely more fun scenario, where Piece would turn into Denzel in “Book of Eli” – the ultimate badass nomad roaming around a bombed-out-and-depleted shanty town in search of hope.

Blake: That’s quite a response….mine will be more brief, I hope, but we’ll see where the keyboard takes me. It goes without saying, of course, but I agree on your points, especially the importance of Christmas Day for the NBA somehow being elevated from prior years. I would sincerely hope the NBA goes #BeastMode on the schedule though and rolls with five back-to-back games like they did last year, getting 10 of their most visible and popular franchises out there ASAP. I’d propose keeping NYK/Bos, Mia/Dal, and LAL/Chi (apparently D-Rose has been getting in touch with his inner Kobe, to paraphrase a reporter I can’t remember at the moment), while also throwing in OKC/LAC and Orl/Anyone left over.

As for your questions, allow me to focus on the figureheads first and say that I don’t care much how their legacies play out. This will gain importance in 2015 when the two of us are collaborating on a History of the NBA super-volume, but the potential long-term image implications for Stern and Hunter are meaningless to me now that the deal is done. It was merely an interesting sub-plot to the negotiations. I am curious, however, of two things as they relate here:

1) How long will Stern last as Commish? The “new” wave of owners clearly doesn’t have the respect for him the older guard has, having not reaped the rewards from him growing the brand so successfully. Peter Holt can only hold the new contingent at bay so long, and I wonder if some of his public posturing and over-the-top rhetoric wasn’t a ploy to seem like he was more in control than he actually was (although I’m sure the owners could see first hand exactly how much he brought to the table compared to, say, an Adam Silver).

2) Ditto for Billy Hunter? He was pulled through the wringer throughout the lockout coverage, and deservedly so (as a fan, that he “saw this coming two years ago” is the most inexcusable quote from the entire debacle). That said, this is the third time he has negotiated a new CBA, and with the two previous ones he was likewise criticized for getting the players a bad deal…only to see it viewed as a pro-players outcome later on. Will the Union give it time to settle in before rendering a verdict on Hunter?

My final concern would be that I heard nothing of negotiations regarding new media and expanding markets. This scares me because the NBA is on top of this stuff way more than any other sport, and it could potentially be the key driver of revenue moving forward. It seems too simplistic and short-sighted to have simply grouped these issues in under “basketball related income.”

Might have strayed off topic a bit, so allow me to pump the brakes there and send it back your way.

Trev: I appreciate your desire to turn your attention back to the play on the court and away from that in the courtroom (#Zing) but I do think that it’s worth at least acknowledging the impact this colossal failure in leadership will have on the legacies of the key parties. Given that Stern is more responsible for building the modern NBA as we know it than anyone not name Michael Jordan, the disintegration of his reputation is relevant if only because of its potential impact on the future of the league’s leadership. You alluded to Mr. Silver in a dismissive light, but keep in mind that were Stern to walk away tomorrow it is Silver who would take the reins. The fact that the coalition of “New Age” owners does not revere or fear David in the same way their predecessors did, combined with the self-entitled viewpoint of today’s stars exhausting any respect they once had for the Commissioner (see: Dwyane “Don’t point your finger at me” Wade) suggests a very real, very uncertain shift in power at the top of the organization. I am one who thinks that may ultimately be for the best personally, as a change in leadership vision and style may help mend some of the lingering wounds from this standoff. It is easy to see the narrative that says Stern was a great leader who did not know when to walk away and as a result tarnished his legacy – the old Harvey Dent argument (“Either you die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain”). That is debatable of course. What isn’t debatable though is that you and I have never known an NBA without David Stern, and projecting the impact his absence would have is no easy task.
As for Mr. Hunter – (audible sigh) – well, I cannot possibly imagine him coming back in his current role once this nonsense is all sorted out. You are right in saying that his constant refrain of “We saw this coming for two years” is at first glance an insult to the fans…but let’s really analyze it for a moment. From the time you spent exploring a career in the legal profession, you should recognize that with every press release or media engagement, he and Fisher were positioning themselves to be able to argue that the league never intended to bargain in ‘good faith’. Legally, this would be impossible to do if they decertified immediately on July 1 – how could they have asserted the position that the owners were not bargaining in good faith if they immediately broke up the union. It is precisely the problem the NFLPA had this summer when they disbanded too soon. If you view it as a simple ploy for leverage, its effectiveness is diluted since the owners’ lawyers would know the players would not be able to prove they made any attempt to negotiate.

Now, there is a massive range between bargaining in good faith and what actually went down. Seemingly, for the first two months of negotiation the players were giving in everywhere. If you will pardon the crudeness, with some of the concessions they made, the players were one step away from merely ‘wiping their chin and saying thank you.’ That is where you fault Hunter and his team; the inability to create even the illusion of leverage or influence until a week and a half ago. His ineffectiveness in controlling the negotiations, even merely from a PR perspective, is his most glaring failure. Yes, the owners would seem to have had all the power and negotiating leverage, but that is what Billy was getting paid for…to improve that, or at least make the public believe he could. Even if the players had to negotiate enough to prove that the owners were being unreasonable and bullying them, that didn’t require waiting until November to pull the trigger on decertifying in order to create leverage. That same move would have been justified in a legal sense on August 1, September 1…etc. To wait until they did and thus jeopardize the season in a very real way was reckless at best, and idiotic at worst. Just like Stern, this is his failure, and the responsibility that comes with accepting this kind of leadership position demands that he be accountable for the seemingly total lack of direction or strategy in the PA’s approach over the last 5 months.

Now, pardoning my divergence into discussing “David and Billy: An Unlikely Bromance,” allow me to finally address some of your other points.

In respect to the Christmas matchups, I have to disagree with you slightly. I don’t know that going HAM and hitting everyone over the head with games is the right way to approach things. My initial reaction is that that would be overwhelming, and each individual match-up would get less attention. Rather than throwing out 5 or 6 games of varying quality and level of media interest or speculation, in my eyes the league would be better served to set up only a few matchups that are absolute ‘Can’t Miss’ ratings pulls, and knock those out of the park (I am crossing sports metaphors all over the place here, sorry. Something something get-it-across-the-goal-line, something something). You and I love the OKC boys, as does any blue-blooded NBA diehard. But they do not resonate nationally yet, at least not in the same way Miami or even the Knicks do. Is that right? No, clearly. As Wilbon wrote in his initial reaction column to the proposed settlement, the Knicks are probably the most overrated and overvalued franchise in North American sports based on merit of championships and excellence alone. But even though that’s true, it doesn’t matter in the ratings game. The fact that the common fan should care more about Durant and Westbrook than a bunch of chuckers that don’t play defense is obvious, but they don’t. It’s my view that putting the ‘sexiest’ matchups out there (I feel like a jerkoff even writing that) on opening day is critical. Look at the NFL model. They leverage the Thursday night showcase game on Kickoff Weekend to showcase the very best of the league. Sure, they could probably do a double-header that night, but sometimes less really is more. As in, more hype, more focus, and more good will.

A quick thought on the new media and vertical brand extensions you referenced: I think the NBA is light-years ahead of other leagues in this regard already, and really any media concerns should be part of another conversation outside of BRI, etc. The players’ right to leveraging their own image in other media avenue is unhinged upon currently, and an easy case could be made that the NBA has 10 of the 25 most famous athletes globally, second only to Association Football (or Soccer, if you’d prefer). The players (and their agents) are smart enough to continue to leverage this fact into deals that use new media and new geographies to expand their piece of the overall marketplace. The other key point here is that the NBA has already moved to a distribution channel online that is vastly superior to other leagues, and that completely aligns with how younger demographics today want to pay for and consume their entertainment: highly customizable and viewer-controlled. NBA Broadband represents a value proposition for fans globally that no other league can, and its excellence as a service offering will only be made more clear in the decade ahead as more early adopters move away from the traditional telco cable package model for consumption. The NFL lives off of its TV deal – it is without question the life-blood to the league’s revenue. But it is based on major networks paying through the roof for distribution rights to their product. Over-the-top services like NBA Broadband do not need a national distribution channel like network television to thrive, and as more and more consumers continue to buck against major cable companies and seek out over-the-top services, the NBA’s offering will be better positioned precisely because it aggregates smaller regional stations.

(This is a rabbit hole we can go down in person someday, as it’s a subject I can discuss for hours at a time, but essentially the only reason I still have TV – as good as FIBE is – is because of the need to watch sports in high-definition and in real-time. All of my other entertainment options are available to me without the need for a cable company or telco’s service. Sports remains the one area that isn’t yet true.)

I want to throw this back to you before I dominate this dialogue more than I already have.

Click here to continue to Part 2.

I participated in a brief discussion about the Raptors and the lockout today over at Raptors Republic. Check it out!