Blake: The board approved it. Colangelo stays. This is my first thought.

Trev: I have always liked Jose as a person, on and off the floor. In my brief but telling dealings with him when I was with NBA Canada, he was the very definition of a professional. He was sincere, and welcoming, to the point of being authentically friendly to people (like me) that he didn’t need to make any time for. I also have a great deal of respect for what he’s been able to do with his career given his limitations as a player. I will miss having a person of his caliber on the team I support.

BUT these things do not blind me to his failings as a starting Point Guard in the current era. It is not his fault that he is playing in what is arguably the best era for his position ever in terms of overall depth of talent around the league, but fault does not factor into it – the truth is that he is a below-average starting guard. Without prompting I could name 15 other guys I would rather have starting, and if I really thought about it that list might get closer to 20.

His salary does not factor into it for me; that is BC’s fault, not Calderon’s. What is relevant about his contract isn’t his salary, it’s that he will be an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer, and seemed destined to walk away for nothing, which if you are the Raptors you simply cannot allow.

I agree that he has been more valuable than Lowry this season, and that he has been invaluable from an intangible/”you’d like to have that guy on your team” perspective. But assuming he is going to leave this summer, you needed to turn the remaining half-season of his contract into something of value.

The reason they needed to act preemptively is one we know all too well as fans of this team: the salary space his departure would create was a total fallacy. That money would not be put towards getting an elite piece to build around and instead almost certainly be spent on overpaying for marginal talent that would not redefine the roster in any meaningful way.

That is which has been the trademark of Raptor Free Agency since…forever. We bring in the Landry Fields and Jason Kaponos of the world – they are nice guys mostly, and fit in great within the culture of the locker room by being likeable and often self-effacing personalities, but they are secondary pieces, the type of premium role players that would make a serious difference for a contender (see: Battier’s impact in Miami, or Perkins’ role in OKC) but who do nothing to change the fortunes of a mediocre team because their skills capacity is limited. We would use the money not spent on Jose to sign a specialist (Reddick?), or a ‘tweener wingman without any elite skills (the Randy Foyes, Trevor Arizas, and Al Harringtons of the world).

So if these kind of signings were the other options, why not try to grab an elite scorer who clearly makes you better offensively? Why not roll the dice?

Blake: Rolling the dice is what it is, and it’s not a terrible gamble. Some facts:

*Rudy Gay is overpaid.
Also:
*Rudy Gay is the best player in this deal.
*Rudy Gay would not have been acquirable for Calderon+Davis this past offseason.
*The Raptors are unlikely to sign a player of his caliber in free agency.

Whether those things add up to make this a smart move is yet to be seen. I can’t judge the deal until I see the secondary deals they make to balance out the roster. What is clear, however, is that it will be Colangelo making those moves – by signing off on Gay’s salary for a few years, the Raptors brass has said they trust Colangelo to build the team over that span of time.

Trev: I think that, if this is it, and nothing else changes, we are slightly worse off than we were yesterday, but not by much. That said, I do not expect this to be the only moves over the next 6 months, so I am marking this one as “Incomplete” for now.

I say that not because of Gay’s contract; Rudy who is a borderline All-Star talent who is clearly overpaid but nonetheless is a near-elite player and a guy who has a history of making huge shots. My pause though is that losing Davis (who BC is selling at the peak of his value) means requiring Bargnani to reenter the rotation at least until he has regained some semblance of trade value, which may take the entire rest of the season. This concerns me deeply, for a host of reasons, not the least of which is because with Jose gone, fair or not, Andrea is now a relic of the near past in terms of the team’s identity. Because of that, it will now be extremely difficult to rebuild the team’s culture and public perception when Drea is still required to play 30+ minutes a night.

I would be a proponent of completely reshaping our roster by breaking it down completely and starting from scratch, but I simply do not see that happening, for a host of reason. Still though, this is be a trade where success is ultimately dependent on subsequent moves.

What I would suggest is that the only way to rebuild in the ways Indiana or Golden State (or even Dallas) has is by actually taking a plunge with that first trade, which we have now done.

This move creates the necessity for the additional moves to reshape the roster. Yes, it creates redundancies in a lot of spots, and the pieces we now have do not immediately make much sense together. But I would argue that is a good thing – the pieces so clearly do not fit together that it demands more movement.

I think this is the only kind of move that creates the momentum and political will internally to make secondary moves. It is your catalyst for change elsewhere in the roster, because if you just wait and take the pieces you have into the offseason, you at best make one or two marginal moves and come back with another 35-48 team.

This is partly why the DeRozan extension was a near disaster – he is now practically unmovable, so whatever reconstruction you do will need to include him going forward. Which means you probably need to dangle Ross – whose upside is lightyears beyond Demar’s – in order to ship out Andrea. Ideally you would like to move Demarr and Andrea, but that seems extremely improbable given how bad both of their contracts now are. You might be able to free yourself of one, but not both. Bringing in Gay at least sends the message that you are trying to be relevant, even if you have to pay a “Toronto Tax” to prove it.

It doesn’t make us better than Indiana or Atlanta this year, but I would really like to see what a big rotation of Lowry/Ross/Gay/Johnson/Jonas (or a small-ball setup of Lowry/Ross/Fields/Gay/Jonas) looks like against the Bucks/Celts/Sixers.

Of course this is probably all a pipe dream, and instead we’ll get another 2+ years of Demar/Andrea killing our cap, Jonas frustrating, and faded “Free T.Ross” shirts.

Blake: Don’t be so down on Ross – the way the NBA has moved, Gay could see a lot of time at the four, and a Lowry-DeMar-Ross-Gay line-up is both well-balanced and enticing.

I also wouldn’t be so sure that Bargnani is locked in or a sure bet to move – the team will likely remain in “collecting assets” mode up until the draft next year, when it will kind of be decision time.

I’m interested in your summation of the deal in just a few sentences. Assume more moves are coming, but they are talent neutral. The Raptors improved in terms of TALENT but took a step back in terms of short-term roster construction and balance. It definitely improves their ability to build over next summer. So take it all in…what’s the grade? And do you agree with me that this is a stamp that Colangelo is getting extended?

Trev: Yes, this certainly seems to cement Colangelo will be around for at least another year or two. As for summing it up in two sentences, you should know my verboseness cannot be contained…and yet, here goes:

To those down on this trade, I’d ask two questions: what was the team honestly going to achieve with the previous roster, and when was our next chance to acquire a talent of this caliber? All else being equal, I give the move a “B”, because we “sold high” on our assets, we now have a clearly identifiable ‘best player’, and the change creates legitimate intrigue about the future where previously there was only frustration.

Blake: That’s all fair. One thing we didn’t get to touch on is that Gay should actually help at the defensive end as well. Despite a reputation to the contrary, he’s a pretty capable wing defender.

I’m still unsure how to sum up the deal. While they “sold high, bought low” and “acquired the best player in the deal,” which are general trade axioms, it’s difficult to see what moves push this team beyond a 6-8 seed. Time will tell, I suppose.

Blake: Alright Greg, the Royal Rumble is Sunday. It’s the second biggest event on the WWE calendar and has huge implications for Wrestlemania. It’s basically the start of “wrestling season.” Are you looking forward to the PPV event? What about the Wrestlemania season in general?

Greg: I only shell out a redback for a PPV event twice a year, and the Rumble is one of those instances. It is one of the longest standing traditions in the WWE and I enjoy it throughly each year, irrespective of the outcome of the actual rumble match itself. My enthusiasm is in high gear all through Wrestlemania season, and I generally find that if the Rumble is booked well, it only makes my passion stronger. I’m looking forward to this event simply because there are so many possible outcomes for the final two matches on the card, that being CM Punk vs. The Rock, and the Royal Rumble. Who is the favourite for the Rumble — I have no clue!

Blake: Well then who do you WANT to see win the rumble? I know we’re in the same boat and strongly do NOT want the King of PG WWE to win (again). It’s been booked well in that if it’s not John Cena winning, I’m at a loss for who it might be, which is important. But again, who do you WANT to see take it home…a little fantasy booking, I guess.

Greg: Unfortunately this show could very easily be setting up a Rock/Cena rematch at Wrestlemania if both of them win their respective matches. I really have no interest in seeing that again. My favourite Rumble moments are always when the match vaults a mid-level performer to main-event status (Yokozuna, Chris Benoit, and Batista come to mind). Wade Barrett is a guy I think could benefit from it, but he’s currently in the midst of an Intercontinental Title reign. Antonio Cesaro is in a similar spot as the US Champion, but it might be too early for him to get that kind of push. But if we are talking pure fantasy booking, my winner has to be Dolph Ziggler. So many different story lines erupt from him winning the Rumble if he holds that distinction as well as the Money in the Bank. He has two guaranteed title shots, and can use them in his slimy fashion to somehow leave Wrestlemania a champion. It makes sense to me to have one of the most over guys in your company leave the biggest show of the year with a title.

Blake: I agree on Dolph…he’s a huge star in the making despite WWE’s best efforts to have Cena bury him. They could go in a bunch of different directions with him having two title shots (trying to unify the belts, losing at WM and then immediately cashing in his MITB, cashing in before ‘Mania and trying to “sit out” since he’s the one owed a title shot but he’s also the champ, etc). He’s also the “Show Stealer” and there’s a tonne of bragging he could add to his promos if he had a big Rumble performance, even if it’s a length or elimination record over an actual victory.

You make a good point with Barrett but I think it’s still a bit too soon – he’d need a really strong face to draw against, and Alberto del Rio is still new in that role. I wouldn’t mind it, they’d just have to book it carefully.

As for Rock/Cena, it just makes no sense to do a rematch. They drew last year, sure, but Cena has somehow gotten even less over in the last year. Rock’s only back for a little bit, and I certainly don’t want to pay to see him in the exact same feud as last year.

Say somehow Cena doesn’t win, and/or Punk wins agains the Rock…who do you want to see Rock facing off with an ‘Mania, and how do you get that story going?

Greg: The only guy I can really come up with is Brock Lesnar. What other heel is worthy of getting into a big program with The Rock? Lesnar obviously has the ties to Paul Heyman, and can interfere on behalf of Punk because The Shield can not. As I write this email, Arda Ocal comes on the television and says exactly what I’m thinking. Now I feel like an idiot — too.

Blake: Great minds think alike, perhaps?

I don’t see them going the Rock/Brock route because a) the company doesn’t give ANY current wrestlers the rub that way, and b) earlier in the winter I read that a Brock/HHH rematch was potentially on the horizon (I’m about as interested in that as I am Rock/Cena II).

I’m very interested to see what happens with The Shield heading into ‘Mania – as a three-man stable, it’s tough to find them an exciting 3-on-3 match-up, while it’s probably too early for WWE to trust them in singles matches at The Grand-Daddy Of ‘Em All. Thoughts on where Rollins, Ambrose and Reigns go over the next few months and specifically at the Rumble on Sunday?

Greg: Ugh. I was hoping you wouldn’t say that.

The thought crossed my mind of a Rock n’ Sock vs. The Shield match, but that whole angle was already done at Wrestlemania XX with Evolution, so I don’t see it being reused. If the Shield doesn’t play a part in the WWE Championship match, I think they almost certainly do something to their biggest rival, Ryback. Their interference results in him getting eliminated/not winning the Rumble, and he says he has had enough. I see something like him taking out one member at the Elimination Chamber, one a few weeks before Wrestlemania, and then takes on the last remaining member in a 1-on-1 match at WM.

Blake: Yeah, I’m not on board with a Rock’n'Sock kind of thing. I guess if they wanted to keep it multi-man they could build to The Shield against three top faces “who have had enough,” like possibly Orton, Sheamus and Ryder (sorry, just trying to get the guy a ‘Mania pay day).

Eventually these guys are going to be singles wrestlers. It’s a bit of a diversion from our original topic, but which of the three guys do you see having the highest eventual upside?

Greg: Oh. I’m definitely not on board with a Rock n Sock reunion. I was just thinking out loud!

I really think it’s too early to tell at this point. I’ve seen all three perform on NXT and was impressed by each one.

My initial instinct is to say Roman Reigns has the brightest future purely based on his tremendous size. I view Dean Ambrose as Seth Rollins to be a little on the small side, but that certainly doesn’t put a ceiling on talent in this day and age (CM Punk being a prime example).

Can we discuss this before the 2014 Royal Rumble?

Blake: Definitely. For me personally, it’s Ambrose though. The other two are unique and pretty good, but Ambrose is heads above them, and just about anyone, when it comes to working the stick. His indie work as Jon Moxley is some of the best mic work going, reminiscent of Punk’s quality in ROH.

Anyway, we’ll leave The Shield aside. What’s left with this year’s Rumble. Let’s talk surprise appearances, which are always a fun (but kind of wasteful) treat in the Rumble match. How many, and who are you hoping/expecting to see?

Greg: I feel obliged to mention the talents of Rollins as well. As I said, I feel all three have great potential and I think where Rollins shines is his in-ring athleticism. I hope all three have a bright future.

I’m going to take this time to mention that my favourite special appearance in the Rumble was Mr. Perfect in 2002. The guy was a stud as lasted to the final four with HHH, Austin and Angle.

But in terms of guys still kind of active that I hope make an appearance, I really want to hear the Mr. Ass theme song hit and Billy Gunn himself come out. I love the dudes with the bleach blonde hair — pause.

Blake: Rollins really has to do something about that lame hair, though.

Mr. Perfect was a great one. I could see Gunn being a guest – there’s rumors that D-X will be inducted into the Hall as a stable this year, so having him and/or Road Dogg and/or X-Pac as an entrant wouldn’t surprise me.

For whatever reason I always want to see Vader, too. I’m not really sure why, but I hope it’s Vader Time, too.

What else is left to discuss about the Rumble – surprise entrants, possible outcomes, Wrestlemania matches…what else are you looking forward to on the show, before we wrap this up?

Greg: I really started enjoying wrestling for what it is. I enjoy a show if it is well booked. As long as everything makes sense to me and no one gets buried, I’ll be okay

But if I’m gonna be selfish, I want the final shot of the show to be the Show Off standing tall, with pocket aces in his hand as the money in the bank and Royal Rumble winner. Otherwise I break Arda Ocals back and make him humble.

Blake: I’m with you but my pick is CM Punk. It’s an insane long shot but losing the strap and then entering the Rumble to guarantee a shot at it is so unique and would fit perfectly with his character. Long shot, but I can hope.

Enjoy the show Greg!

Mayor Gregor Robertson, in particular, was excited to rebrand Canada’s third largest city as America’s 29th largest city.

“Portland is just really, really cool,” said Robertson.

The meeting began with a proposed motion to re-produce Portland’s study on food carts, Food Cartology, for downtown Vancouver. After food cart owners and restaurant owners bickered a bit, both sides found themselves referencing Portland’s system and food culture.

From there, council members and speakers got lost in gushing about Portland.

“I’m a creative person” said Joanelle Lobsinger, owner of an anonymous restaurant. “The equalness in Portland is just totes more equal than in Vancouver.”

Mike Carter, a seemingly diametrically opposed bro to Lobsinger’s valley girl, agreed.

“Bro it’s just mad chill,” said Carter.

The council vote wasn’t unanimous, however, as Kerry Jang had some concerns about inflation in the fast food market if U.S. chains were to enter the downtown area.

“The other day I went into A&W,” said Jang. “And I ordered a teen burger combo. It was $9.52. Nine dollars. And fifty-two cents. For a teen burger combo. I just walked out and cancelled my order.”

But is he on board with becoming Portland?

“The big issue for me,” Jang explained. “Is whether wonton soup is different enough from chili chicken to necessitate separate restaurants.”

So, maybe. He was the only one undecided, though. Charles Gauthier, the executive director of the Downtown Vancouver Business Improvement Association, was excited at the chance to be head of the Portland BIA.

“Bike lanes and foot traffic,” said Gauthier. “THAT’S what Portland does.”

Councilman George Affleck had initially tabled the independent motion. Even though the issue of food carts being too close to traditional restaurants didn’t get solved, Affleck walked away happy with what he had accomplished.

“Go Blazers,” said Affleck. “Go Ducks.”

The current champions Miami Heat have won every home game so far, as have Los Angeles Lakers. There seems to be a decided advantage in basketball about playing at home, more so that in football.
Betting on basketball is very similar to betting on football, but there are some differences. Many basketball betters favour spread betting to betting on outright winners. It is really very simple to do. the most usual bets are the point spread and the under and over.

As basketball is such a fast paced game, it is a great game for in-play betting, which can be a real adrenaline roller coaster ride.

Basketball is one of the most popular sport in America and this is reflected by the number of online casino games that feature it. Alongside football slots, there are several basketball slots that are highly entertaining. Most of these are five reel slots with up to 25 pay lines, so there is plenty of action.

One amusing variant you can find on http://www.riverbellecasino.com/ is Slot Dunk which has 20 pay lines and a potential payout of 13,000 coins. The game features a large array of comic basket ball playing animals as well as symbols such as cups, basket balls, and boots. The cheerleaders are hippopotami which are wild symbols and a zebra and rhinoceros are scatter symbols.

There are several bonus features including 13 free spins, so who says that thirteen is an unlucky number? Certainly it is a great deal of fun.

Hollywood’s team is in the business of making headlines, and hiring Mike D’Antoni over presumed-favorite candidate Phil Jackson is just the latest move in Lakerland that will launch a thousand blog posts. Still, even if we as fans are conditioned to expect dramatic storylines and unforeseen plot-twists with this franchise, this decision has to rank as a true Shyamalan.

So much for this being Big Chief Triangle’s “job to turn down.” And so much for conventional thinking.

On the surface, a typical observer would think that if you have someone with 11 rings ready to come back at guide your team, you don’t think twice about it. If you have a coaching vacancy, and you use a coach’s CV as the determining factor in hiring decision. When Phil Jackson is available and interested, that is the play. Period. There simply is no other equally qualified candidate alive where past success is concerned.

If you were hoping to commission a painting for the ceiling of your church, and Michelangelo is reportedly interested, there is no debate. It’s not that there aren’t other candidates who may bring talent and insight to the job – it’s just that they aren’t immortal in their field.

It is not an indictment of Mike D’Antoni’s qualifications to say his hiring is a surprise. It’s just that if The Bard is ready and willing to write you a play, you probably don’t hire George Barnard Shaw. Yet that is the direction the Lakers have gone in, leaving NBA fans and Jackson similarly “stunned.”

When we start to assess the decision on a tactical level, it begins to make a great deal more sense. This is owed primarily to the Lakers personnel. While he is one of the greatest shooters of all-time and could have thrived in the Craig Hodges-Steve Kerr role, Nash’s unique talents as a playmaker would have been stifled in the Triangle. There would have been legitimate concerns about whether or not Howard is a good enough passer to have had the triple-post work through him. The Lakers’ bench, already hard-pressed to outscore even most starting units at elite D-1 schools, would have had to learn a complex offense without the benefit of training camp.

All these and more are the most likely reasons D’Antoni, not Jackson, is going to have the chance to try to right this ship.

Given the early hour at which this news broke, one could make the case that there are really only three things we – the non-Mark Steins of this world – know right now:

· Nash will be ecstatic to have one more run at a title with The ‘Stasche;

· Kobe will be disappointed not to have PJ’s book recommendations to ignore, but will likely be contented given his affection for D’Antoni;

· Jerry Buss’ accountants are thrilled to not have to call Brinks for a truck to back up to Jackson’s house.

For the sake of symmetry then, let’s also work off the idea that there are three critical things we do not know right now:

· Will a “7 Seconds or Less” philosophy work for a team this old?

· Will the team’s chances of resigning Dwight be impacted by this move?

· Could this lead to roster changes?

In addressing the first unknown, we are assuming D’Antoni will be bringing his fabled run-and-shoot system with him to Los Angeles, which is likely a good bet. Whether or not it will be a good fit remains to be seen. The D’Antoni-Era Suns were able to play at the pace they did because they had the personnel to make the majority of their shots, particularly from three. This Lakers’ team does not have the shooters on it to suggest a similar plan will be successful. They are old, big, and slow in comparison to those Phoenix teams. Yet they also have four Hall of Famers, which tends to make up for other shortcomings.

With respect to the impact this will have on Dwight Howard specifically, one would have to assume he can still thrive in D’Antoni’s system, as other mobile bigs have in the past. The question will be how D’Antoni’s staff will approach defense, and whether or not they stress a commitment to both sides of the ball so that Howard is not constantly being asked to bail his teammates out because of missed rotations and matador ball-defending. It is a positive sign for LA fans that Howard and D’Antoni have an existing relationship from the 2008 Olympic team, something that may be a building block to greater trust and communication, and a familiarity he would not have had with Jackson. Still though, whether or not he and D’Antoni align philosophically will play a role in his decision about re-signing with the team this summer – the Busses had better hope to have bet correctly here.

Finally, there is the question or whether or not the Lakers will make any significant roster shakeups to better accommodate to D’Antoni’s system. There is a distinct possibility that the team now looks to acquire players in the mold from those Suns’ team: shooters with infinite range and no conscience who can run the floor and drive up the total number of possession each game. There is already (extremely premature and unfounded) talk afoot that they should look to trade Pau Gasol for a more athletic big to stand-in as in-his-athletic-prime Amare Stoudemire. The idea that Josh Smith – a childhood friend of Dwight Howard’s – might be available is tantalizing, since on paper he would be the ideal asset for this team, but it ignores the truth that the team has yet to properly explore the type of partnership Nash could form with Gasol, and is based more in fantasy than fact.

Perhaps that is to be expected though – on Friday morning Mike Brown was still the coach of this team, and the “facts” all seemed to point to him getting more time to figure out how to use all of the assets at his disposal. It was mere fantasy at that point that over the next 72 hours the team would be in a position to court, and ultimately reject, the greatest coach in NBA history, and yet that is exactly what happened.

Never say never with the Lakers. The organization has the mechanics of plot twists down pat – and they know we will all tune in next spring for this story’s ultimate surprise ending.

With that long-winded introduction out of the way, the ranks by position are after the jump. Since I’m posting this on September 7th, which is a bit of a cheat given that most people have drafted by now, I also listed my original ranking when I first prepared for my drafts back in late July. In some cases, injuries, trades, or changing roles have effected the rankings, while in other cases it was preseason performances or just a general change in opinion. I always find that pre-draft rankings are not necessarily indicative of my actual opinion, as when it comes time to click the “Draft” button, you really find out who you prefer.

Finally, I’ll note that because these are positional rankings, the scoring of the league doesn’t matter too much, except for PPR formats. I assume PPR for my rankings, because I’m staunchly against non-PPR leagues.

Anyway, without any more ado…enjoy, and please, be nice. I would love to hear where my opinions differ from others, and I can hopefully try to back up the ‘why’ behind the rankings in question. You can click each chart to enlarge them.

The narrative is certainly there to support his arrival as a star – he’s finally comfortable, he’s made obvious changes to his mechanics and approach, pitchers have yet to find an adjustment to slow him down, and so on. For a player with so many alleged issues in the past, it’s certainly possible Colby has just “figured it out” or has “come into his own” or some other baseball cliché. Then again, it’s also possible that it’s just a hot-streak, and our choice of arbitrary endpoints is misleading us.

As Jays fans, we’ve lived through a very similar player in Alex Rios before, and his hot-and-cold act eventually got him a huge contract…and waived out of town. Now, Rios has once again rebounded as one of the more valuable outfielders in the game, believe it or not, thriving for Robin Ventura’s Chicago White Sox. So, if history has taught us anything with players of this ilk, it’s that we shouldn’t be too quick to react in either direction – I certainly didn’t want to give up on Colby during his cold stretches when #RasmusNation had but a handful of us left, but I’m trying to be cautious with my future expectations as well.

So I spent the morning scouring Fangraphs to see if there are any specific trends in Colby’s career data that might turn a light on for us. The following three charts and graph are actually stunning when you look at them. I charted Colby’s stats on a month-by-month, split-year, and yearly basis in several key statistical categories, and then graphed his OPS over time against the league median (I used median instead of average to weed out things like pitchers, replacement players and September call ups….basically, the “median” data here is a middle-of-the-pack everyday player). The amount of fluctuation on a monthly basis is insane, and it doesn’t get any steadier on a split-year or yearly basis.

According to Fangraphs, we should have expected some stabilization in a few of these stats by this point. Although these years are Colby’s age 22-25 seasons and therefore subject to some additional variability based on the fact that he’s performing on a developmental curve, the trend (or lack thereof) in these stats is still absurd. Colby appears to either be one of the more inconsistent hitters out there, prone to extreme bouts of good and bad luck….or, again, his off-field issues have caused such strong fluctuations in the past, and 2012′s upward swing is a true indicator of growth.

Just for context, while BABIP never actually stabilizes within a season, K%, BB%, and Line Drive Rate (LD%) are all “stabilized” to a correlation of at least 0.7 after 150-200 plate appearances. What this means is that after 150-200 plate appearances (about two months’ worth of baseball), K%, BB%, and LD% can predict at least 70% of future performance in these categories. With Colby, however, they seem to fluctuate a great deal beyond those thresholds (were I more statistically inclined, I’d do some sort of split-half analysis or something to further suss this out, but alas, I am not). Additionally, OPS and ISO (Slugging minus Average, a measure of extra base hitting ability) stabilize at around 500 plate appearances, or just shy of a season. We’d expect, then, his seasonal rates in these categories to be somewhat stable, but this isn’t at all the case.

With all of that said, is it possible that the off-field issues really just caused a tumultuous and disastrous 2011 season? If we were to remove 2010 half-year and season data, we’d see some trends that make more sense in terms of a typical development curve – while his 2010 is technically still a stronger performance than 2012 thus far, they’re relatively close. Additionally – and again I caution that this is random and by no means statistically sound – if we swapped his 2010 and 2011 seasons, the development curve makes even more sense, especially on a monthly basis.

Of course, we can’t just retrofit his career performances to match our narrative or our expectations. Colby is still young at 25, and his four-year career at this point has been extremely up and down. 2010 serves as a warning that he’s been at this level before only to completely fall off, but his 2012 stats certainly show a player who has gone through appreciable growth and development as a player (for example, see this swing analysis from earlier in the year).

Colby’s current hot streak really can’t be explained by a single adjustment in approach (his K% is trending downward, but his BB% is below the norms he established in 2010 and early 2011), and while his LD% is a career best, it’s still right around the league median, explaining why his BABIP is just below the median (I should note that Colby has one of the best Well Hit Averages in baseball, but this stat isn’t really common or reliable yet…it probably has an impact on BABIP, but I believe those formulas are still being worked on as proprietary stats…if someone knows where to find it, please let me know).

On the bright side, there’s nothing in Colby’s profile suggesting his current performance level is a fluke. Fangraph’s DeLucker, which aims to project wOBA based on axBABIP (expected BABIP) and a variety of other factors, indicates Colby’s wOBA should actually be higher at .373.

It’s also encouraging that Rasmus has a positive “pitch value” against every type of pitch, indicating there are no offerings in specific he has struggled with, leaving pitchers few options in terms of exploiting him. Most of his plate discipline statistics are in line with his career norms, with the exception being that he’s making contact on 66.4% of pitches outside of the zone that he swings at. Previously, he was nearly the worst in the league in this area, but this development has pushed him near the league median.

All of this has been a lot of stat-speak and trend analysis to say that, basically, we still don’t know. There are a lot of small positive signs in the profile for Colby, including the fact that he’s reached the league median in just about every statistical category. Basically, Colby isn’t struggling in any particular area right now, which is allowing his strengths to push his surface stats to higher levels. Just as importantly, there are no negative indicators in his profile, no instances of extreme luck (except possibly his HR/FB rate of 16.7%), and no worrisome trends pointing to pitchers being able to make a specific adjustment in the near future.

The statistical profile, combined with the fitting narrative of having worked through the kinks of growing up as a major leaguer and the obvious change in swing mechanics, means we can be guardedly optimistic that 2010 and 2012 Colby, a 25-year old center-fielder with plus defense and an emerging profile as a well above-average hitter, is the Colby that we’ll get to enjoy for a long time.

But hey, if you’re not one for guarded optimism, his Baseball Reference page lists Roger Maris as his #3 comparable for players through Age 24.

Trev and I had planned to do a more traditional Live Blog together, but being on crutches prevented me from joining Trev in Toronto. Instead, we used G-Chat to facilitate our discussion. I was going to tidy it up, but it’s about 7000 words and I don’t have that kind of patience. So, comb through and enjoy. Hopefully it looks better in retrospect than our 2008 instalment.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Right from jump street we are already going to have to agree to disagree

6:40 PM

I, for one, think that our 2008 Draft Recap is amazing in retrospect

me: hahaha

before we get going

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Granted, in this case I think amazing = hilarious

6:41 PM

me: so….this chat won’t delete old messages right? so if we just keep typing, i can copy and paste at the end, no need to maintain as we go?

Yes, for quick review – amazing = hilarious = Bayless over Westbrook = embarrassing.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: That is my understanding

me: Beauty.

6:42 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!topic/google-talk-gadget/B8hisZyCF7s

As a point of reference

me: Perfect.

6:43 PM

Alright then….I say we get going. Might as well start with Raptors-related…give me your top-3 for the Raps, given who you think might be available.

6:44 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Ahh yes, it is that time of year again – the day I get to have my hopes and dreams for next season crushed with the realization of exactly how far away our Raps are from being a real Playoffs team

me: Keep in mind Jonas Valanciunas is coming as well, and multiple non-Raptor sources have confirmed he’d be a near-consensus #2 if he were in the draft this year.

6:45 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: My sense is that, short of some kind of flux that sees a major move (i.e. Houston making a play for Howard) the Top 5 will be Davis, Beal, Robinson, Barnes and MKG in some order.

So, with that as a baseline, what I would absolutely love is for us to package Ed “It’s a Process” Davis with the #8 to make a play to move up to 4 or 5 in order to get MKG, who has multiple All-Star games in his future and would fit perfectly into Casey’s Pound the Rock philosophy and culture.

Let’s assume that doesn’t happen though, because it would be too incredible and we as city can’t ever have nice things.

My guess is that if they are serious about bringing in Nash, they would Amnesty Jose’s last year (or look to move him for spare parts without taking on cap space), which would mean they would want a pupil to learn under Nash for 2 or 3 years.

If Lillard is still there at 8 (not guaranteed but possible) that seems like a smart decision, but it would hinge on knowing Steve is coming and having a succession plan in place.

If Drummond falls to 8, I could see BC then being able to trade down and pick up assets, since the potential he represents would outweigh the risk for a team like Houston, who might throw us one of their 1st and a valuable role guy. I’d then be okay with bringing in Perry or Terrence Jones, on the assumption you can move either Davis or Amir, since we don’t need all of those ‘long’ bigs stealing minutes from Jonas, who should immediately be the most important guy on the team.

6:47 PM

So, in summary:

Dream: MKG

Hope: Lillard or Waiters

Acceptance: Moving down for one of the Joneses

Fear: Rivers or Lamb (or Barnes, who is Kryptonite to me after 2 underachieving years in Chapel Hill)

6:48 PM

me: Sounds good. One note on the PG front – I LOVE Lillard and outside of moving up for MKG, he’s my top choice. With that said, Eric Koreen from National Post just tweeted that Bayless is in the process of buying a place in TO….so, either he’s tapped in to the Raptors draft plans, has a very low risk-aversion, or…well, I don’t know if he’d know anything about Jose plans, but let’s just say I hope he waits until tomorrow to sign papers officially.

6:50 PM

As for my choices, obviously MKG would be the best fit…with no franchise-alpha-scorer available, getting the best all-around player, one with extremely high character to boot, is the best case scenario. Short of Jonas, I’d be willing to make just about any kind of deal to move up and take him…but alas, it seems unlikely given the rumoured asking prices for picks #2-4.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe he just wants a crash pad here so that when he comes back for Caribana weekend?

6:51 PM

me: Stefanski just told Devlin’s Hair that their draft list is now up to 4 names instead of 3….based on previous conjecture, I’d say it’s Lillard, Waiters, Barnes, and Rivers…

6:52 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I just heard Sefanski on TSN2 say that they have 4 guys on their board that they would be happy with and that they will get one of those 4 and be happy with them…if 2 of those 4 are Rivers and Lamb, just kill me now.

Look at that

me: Appears we’re watching the same channel.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Nice to see we both have the same allergic reaction to the notion of Rivers being our pick here

6:53 PM

me: Yup, as we texted earlier, his basketball IQ and desire to be great COULD be the asset that makes him great, but it also makes him a huge risk to be a chemistry-killer….he aint Kobe, but it feels like someone will need to hammer that home for him.

6:55 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Why does it look like Mario is the only one not doing anything in that room?

6:56 PM

I’m willing to chalk that up to everyone else at the table just ‘trying to look busy with the cameras on and typing away on their laptops for no reason whatsoever’

6:57 PM

me: Is it blasphemy that TSN carries the NBA Draft or what? I’d totally expect the Raptors pick to be interrupted for a breaking rumour on the Luongo trade front…

6:58 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: As for Rivers – I appreciate the school of thought that says his confidence will drive him to be great, but I also think his lack of explosiveness and height prevents him from being anything close to a star 2, and his poor decision-making with the ball and lack of handle prevents him from being a credible threat to be a 1 in the League

6:59 PM

Don’t jinx it – there is still a 50% chance that they break in to do a 90 minute special on Sid new contract

me: 8.7M/year, like anyone didn’t see that coming.

No really flashy outfits in the green room, though I did see a green bow-tie.

7:00 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Snaptake based on 5 seconds of footage – Robinson wins “Best Dressed”

Zeller wins “Happiest to Be in the Green Room”

7:01 PM

me: And who has the longest wait? I’d say Zeller’s a risk depending on who the Rockets trade their picks too…seems like the type GMs would be very split on.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I suppose my award doubles as the same thing

7:02 PM

me: BTW sorry once again for not making it in person….ankle is still in poor condition.

7:03 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Between that and screwing me over in the Fantasy-Trade-That-Shall-Not-Be-Discussed, its been a bad day all-around

7:04 PM

me: That’s what I get for wrestling for rebounds with people much bigger than myself.

So since Davis goes #1 in about a half hour….how do you envision MJ screwing up the #2 situation?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Good to have JVG up there; always nice to see some considered and intelligent analysis

As opposed to, you know, Stephen A. or Skip Bayless

7:05 PM

me: Don’t get me started….tell me you saw Cuban give it to Skip the other day?

7:06 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I did indeed; Cuban is such an enigma for me – sometimes I love him, and otherwise I can’t stand him in the least…this time it is the former though

7:07 PM

me: Yeah, Bayless needed to be put in his place. And could use it a few more times, too.

7:08 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Why is Andy Katz standing full two feet in front of Bucher? It looks like he is trying to check him off the podium

me: Trying to even out the height discrepancy, I would assume?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: And at first glance it doesn’t look like there is enough space up there for the two of them

I want some kind of Feats of Strength to fight to the death to liven up the 2nd round

7:09 PM

me: Regarding the Cavs/Cats/Wiz situation…WIz blowing smoke that they’ll nab T-Rob from ‘Cats at 3 if the Cats deal #2 to Cavs so they get Beal….wordiness aside, this is a ridiculous way to operate your team, right? Take your guy, you don’t draft someone to spite another team..

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I want JVG’s comment to show up in a graphic later in a team summary when the #2 pick is up- “Bobcats – Needs: Everything”

7:10 PM

I sort of agree, except that Wash has so many holes that it doesn’t really matter

7:11 PM

They can use T-Rob too

So, even if it seems like spite, its not a bad pick

By the way, Jay loves that stat about The Brow blowing more jumpers than Sully blocked overall shots

It’s the third time I’ve heard him say that in the last 2 days

7:12 PM

Granted, that may just be a result of A) him being put on TV way too much

And B) guys like you and I consuming way too much analysis in prep for tonight

me: Agreed in basketball terms, but it’s Grunfeld, so I doubt he’s thought it through further than “man, screw those guys.”

7:14 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: The Brow’s “Who doesn’t love money?” is the clubhouse leader for quote of the night

me: His embracing of The Brow is a great sign for his marketability as a star and franchise guy

7:16 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: What is his ceiling? I’ve seen people saying his Pro Comp is a young KG – doesn’t that seem like a bit much? As much as I like him, I just don’t see the same athleticism or explosiveness that made KG a true offensive threat in Minni

7:17 PM

Best case, whose career does he have? Worse case?

me: I don’t think you can ever say someone’s ceiling is “one of the best 2 PFs of all time”…it’s almost always going to be hyperbole. I think the bigger draw with him is that his floor is extremely high. Sure, he COULD be KG, but there’s been 1 or 2 players at KG’s level ever, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

7:19 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I agree completely – I really like him, I just don’t view his ceiling as being as high as that. But he is a franchise guy, no doubt, and I only think there are 1 or 2 of those in this Draft. Which is only because of how much I love MKG and think he can change a culture immediately.

7:21 PM

me: I’d kill for MKG…he has every tool that is unteachable, and his weaknesses are of the utmost coach ability. Shooting mechanics can be corrected, “motor” can not….it boggles my mind that MJ apparently wasn’t excited by MKG.

7:24 PM

Apparently Cavs moving to #2 for 4 & 24, which would take Beal off the board. Ford thinks Wiz would then take Barnes…meaning MKG could last out of top-5…

7:28 PM

Thought – Gregg Poppovich paid off doctors to spread panic about Sully’s back so they can swing Blair for a pick in the #20 range and nab him.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Would that be because Sully “has some Nasty”?

7:29 PM

I think Pop is planning to bring in a bunch of Euro bigs that they have been stashing overseas for the last few years and needs the roster space

7:30 PM

And yes, the fact that I can’t be any more specific about who those bigs are than “a bunch of Euro bigs” is very 2002 of me, and a bit sad. Sue me.

me: Whatever, anyone who knows them will know what you mean, and anyone who doesn’t won’t care. 0 risk assessment.

7:32 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Plus I feel like that might be what Pop actually calls them when he is talking to RC Buford

“Get those Euro bigs over here”

me: Ford just updated his mock to reflect rumoured Cavs/Cats swap…MKG falls all the way to 7, not 6

7:33 PM

Wow, Stern with a tongue-in-cheek intro haha “thank you for that warm welcome”

7:36 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “Are you not entertained!?!?”

7:37 PM

me: Davis story re: growth spurt after being bred as a guard….you are bitter that you never got said growth spurt even though that was your plan. Admit it.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Single tear

7:39 PM

me: Ok #2….if you were the Cavs and had moved up here, would you not still be tempted to get MKG, the ultimate #2 and Kyrie’s high school teammate? And how bad is this chat going to look in 2016 if MKG turns out to be a dud?

7:42 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Worst case for us in 2016 is if Drummond is really Amare 2.0

Then we (and all the GMs) look like idiots

7:43 PM

me: I don’t agree with that, though…if EVERY team is saying he’s risky, then in retrospect it shouldn’t look that bad to have passed.

With #2 pick Bobcats take MKG….wow! They made the right pick!! Unbelievable…or it’s been dealt..

7:44 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Do they keep him though>

Or was it for someone else?

me: That’s what I’m wondering…Ford was relatively certain he wasn’t #1 on Bobcats board.

7:46 PM

How much swag is Coach Cal walking around with right now? Does he even have to recruit anymore?

7:47 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well, he won’t have to…until the title get vacated in 3 years for recruiting violations and he leaves in disgrace

Too soon?

7:48 PM

me: And Beal goes to Washington at #3.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Beal and Wall – that is a nice start for a young team

me: No no, not too soon…it’s possible, but he probably let Shabazz go to UCLA just so he could say “hey look I don’t get everyone!”

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: And Nene is a solid post guy there

Now, they have absolutely nothing else

But still

7:49 PM

me: Yes, too bad they blew their cap flexibility adding Okafor and Nene

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well, I think getting Okafor will help their young guys “learn to be professionals”

If that makes sense

7:50 PM

Sidebar – yet another of Jay’s favorite lines this week – comparing Beal at 18 to Jesus Shuttlesworth at 18 and not mid-prime Ray.

me: Cavs going to take Barnes here with their top guys off the board?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Yes, Jay, we know you aren’t saying he is already better than Ray was at his peak

me: Haha great comparison, and probably more fair since, like the Davis/KG comps, Allen is the best shooter of all time…that can’t EVER be someone’s player comp.

7:51 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Re: Cavs – I think so. As Simmons enjoyed killing Chad Ford about, Barnes is boys with Irving, so that would be a nice tandem. Those two plus Tristan is like a poor man’s OKC from three years ago

7:52 PM

Shout out to my guy Chris Broussard – I want to rename every fantasy team I run to be called “Knucklehead Factor”

me: Very poor, yes. Homeless, even. But still a nice core, and with two more picks before 35 tonight.

7:53 PM

I would just like to point out here – #4 is still a best player available spot. Yes, Cavs have Tristan, but their only other big is Varejao, and the bevy of bigs certainly doesn’t seem to be an issue for teams like Utah with teams lining up for post players.

7:54 PM

And the Cavs take Dion Waiters at #4

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: WHAT!

“You crazy for that one Jay”

me: Bit of a shocker there, but it helps the Raptors in terms of how the next few picks could now break down.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Put this in Comic Sans – that is a BAD pick

For that team

me: As a Barnes hater….do you like this? Can his penetration game play well with Kyrie, who is a strong shooter?

7:56 PM

And T-Rob goes to the Kings at #5, as he should….that’s a beastly post duo they’ve got there now.

7:57 PM

Barnes is going to slide Trev…

7:59 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I think Barnes with Kyrie would have been excellent

Even if Barnes made me insane as a Tar Heel

So I don’t really get the Waiters pick

8:00 PM

But maybe that is a good combo in the backcourt

The Kings can’t be keeping this, can they?

me: Just want to point out here before we move too far – we saw Waiters twice in the tourney, and he didn’t stick out to me at ALL, and I was actively looking for him. He also comes off like a spoiled brat in interviews.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe they will, but I feel like him and Boogie Cousins have the same strengths and weaknesses

me: Kings keep it for sure…T-Rob and Cousins is a beastly duo

8:01 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe you are right

I just see them as getting in each other’s way

Maybe if they had a real 1 it wouldn’t matter

But as they are built right now they have no one to give either of them the ball

8:02 PM

Regardless, I love T-Rob – as a story, as a player, as a role model, etc.

And I stand by the “Best Dressed” call from earlier – my guy looks good

me: Yeah, I think they’re next move will to be to get a PG. He does look good.

They could probably flip Tyreke and a future 1st for Lowry if the Rockets are still stockpiling assets.

8:03 PM

Pruiti – “they’re going to beat guys up, but offensively one of them has to develop a jumper”…fair enough.

8:04 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: That is a fair assessment – I just worry they will run into each other a lot

But maybe if they get someone to set them up it won’t matter

8:05 PM

me: Blazers taking Lillard at #6…Raptors are either going to be forced to take Barnes at 8, or if he goes to GSW, they’ll be the first team to reach into the next tier (other than Cleveland…uhh…)

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Also, the fact that Tyreke was ROY and that you would need to include a 1st to move him for Lowry is a joke

8:06 PM

me: Agreed, but it just goes to show what you can do playing on an awful team that nobody watches…just get your numbers. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a 20-5-5 guy again but he’s clearly better than he showed the last two years.

8:08 PM

Barnes to Warriors at #7…Raps on the clock, taking Drummond or reaching into the Lamb/Rivers tier.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Agreed – I didn’t mean it as a shot at Evans, more at the notion that his value could go down so quickly for no real reason other than having too many knuckleheads around him

8:09 PM

me: Knucklehead Factor

Quickly – what do you do here as Raps? Roll the dice on Drummond, reach into the 2-guard tier, or quickly work the phones?

8:10 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: My feed seems to be way behind here – I still have GSW on the clock

me: They are, I’m getting the pick via Twitter

8:11 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well then I don’t feel so dumb for asking

I think you take Drummond and try to move him

me: Now it’s official. So go ahead and answer, we’ve got 5min to disect

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I don’t want Lamb or Rivers

It looks more and more like Rivers

…Shoot me now.

8:12 PM

Make it clean, I don’t want to suffer

me: Let’s go Drummond, and if we can’t move him, roll the dice with him and Jonas as a power-duo? If we go 2s, I’ll take Lamb.

8:14 PM

Twitter is saying Rivers will be the pick. expletives edited….sigh.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Stop jumping ahead

You are the kid that opens presents on Christmas Eve

me: Sorry bro….I will cut that out. It’s only one source reporting, hopefully they’re wrong.

8:15 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Oh, I believe it

I am just lashing out because I’m annoyed

I don’t want to spend a moment of my life actively cheering for Austin Rivers

me: I am strictly an xmas morning guy, for the record. Just happen to have Twitter open permanently tonight….I’m wondering if there are a lot of trades still being negotiated. I read Bobcats “probably” will keep MKG.

8:16 PM

if Rivers goes to Tor here, I say we just spend the rest of this chat selling ourselves on him.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Chad Ford has a pick here

Not sure if it is true

But if it is, it makes no sense

8:17 PM

me: Terrence Ross. Woah.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: yeah

Um…I guess?

me: I did NOT see this coming..

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “Not…a…bad…pick” says Broussard

Ouch

8:18 PM

me: At least he can shoot….and wears bow ties.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Never good to be in the position as the first pick that the panel says “I’m surprised”

8:19 PM

Or “This is a little bit early”

That usually doesn’t point to a ‘steal’ of a pick

me: I honestly feel like we’re going to finish this blog up tonight and wake up tomorrow and have to throw it out because there were a lot of trades. However….who knows, can Ross play the three rather than being a large two?

8:20 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe they look at playing Drea at the 3, Amir and Jonas as the 4/5, and have two 2′s, hoping Nash can feed everybody?

8:21 PM

Fran loves that he got to do something, by the way

He has next to nothing to do until the 2nd round tonight

me: Maybe….I really don’t like the idea of putting a plan in place on the long-shot you can get Nash though. Yes, Fran loves him, but Hollinger hates him.

8:22 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I hate Hollinger

So we are even

Not that Fran know what he is talking about always

But it is just worth saying

me: Fair. That’s a condo for another day I guess, on Hollinger.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I am not a Hollinger guy – at all

8:23 PM

Bold and capitalize that

me: Drummond to Detroit…and they, too now, could have a devastating post-duo….IF Drummond wants them too. Huge IF.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: If I never have to read him or Henry Abbot again it will be too soon

Andre could be special

or ‘special’

8:24 PM

That is a bit of a cheap shot, but dude looks like he is totally lost sometimes. Yet he also looks like an All-World big half the time, so who the hell knows

8:26 PM

me: You can;t teach size….it’s a serious cliche, but for a reason. The guy has all the physical tools you could ask for. He’s a beast. “Million dollar arm, 5 cent brain” of basketball.

8:28 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Why’s he calling me meat? I’m the one driving a Porsche.

me: Rivers to NO. Twitter loves him paired with Gordon but, uhh…who is passing who the ball?

BTW Raptors confirm they’ll keep Ross.

8:29 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I don’t mind keeping Ross

I just pray we get an answer as to what we are doing at 1

Do we keep Jose?

Do we get Nash?

8:30 PM

me: DraftExpress guy just tweeted that he had lunch with Ross’ agent yesterday and he never mentioned TO as a possibility. Weird.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I can’t see bringing back Bayless and Jose as a real plan if they expect to be any good

Maybe BC played it close to the chest?

me: Well, we won’t know that answer until at least Sunday….nothing Nash can be broached “officially” until July 1.

8:31 PM

So maybe Jose+Bayless is strictly the backup plan, but by not saying anything yet they keep that option open if Nash falls through. And then if Nash signs, you have 2nd week of July to amnesty, or renounce JBay’s rights.

8:32 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: As for NOH – I like the foundation of Gordon, Davis and Austin as a decent re-set considering just last summer they had CP and a bunch of scraps

me: Oh, same, winning the lottery will do that for you. But it’s an unconventional core to start with…Maybe Rivers can embrace the PG duties though.

8:33 PM

Doubt it, but maybe.

8:34 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I’d expect them to try and get Collison back from Indy maybe

Or something to that effect

8:35 PM

me: Heard that rumour, too, but it involved picks.

Meyers Leonard to Por at 11, giving them Leonard and Lillard to go with Batum and Aldridge in the “retool not rebuild”.

8:36 PM

BTW I could see a Henson slide right here. Not sure where he fits since Det passed from Drummond.

8:37 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I like Portland’s commitment to culture

They want “good guys”

And want to build with character

Which I appreciate

It may not net them anything

8:38 PM

And they don’t get any extra points for being idealists

But its a nice notion

me: Could Leonard have gone top-10 if his ESPN picture wasn’t so goofy? Hard to take him seriously. BTW, Cavs are trying to swing Varejao for Barnes to give them Kyrie/Barnes/Waiters

8:39 PM

Yeah Portland is obviously still shook from Jailblazers year…it’s a nice tiebreaker, and I don’t think they’ve made any serious reaches here, so you can’t argue.

8:42 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: If that Cavs can make that happen then shame on GSW

me: And Lamb to “Houston” in pick 1 of 3 on the evening

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: That would be a bad trade if it is straight up

8:43 PM

Odds he plays a game for Houston?

8:45 PM

me: 40/60. Don’t forget there’s a chance he plays if the Magic want to test the waters until the trade deadline. They’re just asset piling, time frame might not be as big a consideration.

Lamb/KevMart obviously don’t fit together in any conceivable way.

8:46 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe

8:47 PM

Except those guys’ value goes down every game they play I think, unless they break out

In June and July, they look great

Once they are out on the floor, they are just another role player with potential

me: This is true, especially if they don’t fit together.

8:48 PM

I would really love Nash in TO, since Bucher is talking about it by the way…I know it’s not a title team at all, but let’s have some fun.

Kendall to Phoenix at 13….Nash is out the door, it seems. Marshall the first draftee not in the Green Room.

8:49 PM

Another tangential note – Casey: “Terrence is an excellent shooter who can run the floor and can defend.”

8:53 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Interesting

me: I feel like you might have ducked out on me for some cardio, but Bucks take Henson at #14. They need bigs, and he’s got large potential.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe Ross is a better defender than we expect

Better fit for “Pound the Rock”

me: True.

ESPN all over the Nash to TO angle right now.

8:54 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Yes, I am running stairs in a trash bag

Sorry

me: No problem man…no agony, no bragony.

8:55 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: (For the record, I am not actually doing that – I am drinking “Boneshaker IPA” in front of the TV alone. Very much not the same thing)

8:56 PM

As for Henson – I am very “meh” about that pick. Its not bad at all, but it doesn’t really excite me if I am a Bucks fan

me: Nice man…I mixed and match individual cans today…had an Urquell (Pilsner, not Stephan), a Cameron craft lager, and now a Cracked Canoe.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: He is a very forgettable-but-solid prospect

8:57 PM

Not unlike Brandon Wright

me: We’re into the ‘forgettable but solid’ part of the draft…it’ll pick up again when we hit White/Sully and the stat-geek favorites

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: True

Nothing is worse than 12-19

Then 20-27 is usually very interesting

8:58 PM

Before it just becomes a gong-show from that point on

me: That’s exactly why you never want to be a perennial 1st-round exit team. Oh wait, that’s our goal in Raptorland? Shiiiiiii…

Yes, I’ll assume we’ll shut this down after 1st round? I’ll throw in some 2nd round comments on my own maybe, so we’re not here until midnight talking about guys we know nothing about.

8:59 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I like that plan

As much as I would like to sit here and mock Fran some more

9:00 PM

me: Harkless to Philly….not a good sign for prima donna potential when he demands a name change on draft day from Mo to Maurice.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “What do you think of this pick, Jeff?” “I think they caught a break when Rose got hurt”

9:01 PM

Way to stay on topic JVG

Maybe he just felt like he wanted to be viewed as a grown-ass man, which “Mo” doesn’t really signal

9:02 PM

me: True…Mo reminds me of the weirdo friend from Smart GUy on Family that went on to be the crackhead on Playmakers.

Too obscure?

9:03 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Also, I love the analysis Jay just gave around “At this stage of the draft, if you like the guy, TAKE him. Who cares if it is “5 picks too soon” – it is eye of the beholder”. Completely agree with that kind of thinking at this point in the 1st round

9:04 PM

me: Definitely….”best player available” refers to the top 2-3 tiers depending on the draft year…once you get into those larger, interchangeable tiers, you do what you want. Sure, you try to trade down if there’s a taker, but just get your guy, don’t let other GMs tell you who you should take where.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well, not so obscure that I don’t get it, but I think that 98% of the populous might be lost

9:05 PM

me: Thoughts on Houston here? Zeller still there but Royce White seems like a Morey type…

And boom…Royce White. Much earlier than anticipated. I LOVE this guy….anxiety-goggles on? Maybe, but he could be very good.

9:06 PM

I know the Rockets are stockpiling assets, but the Royce White pick seems like a ‘keeper’ since his value was a little lower than 16.

9:07 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I was about to say

As much as we were saying “Get your guy” – it is hard to support this pick entirely

Especially when we have no idea what their team will look like

me: Possible Boston dealt 21&22 for this pick?

9:08 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Did Chris just compare White to LBJ?

me: Yes he did…

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “Come on now!”

me: Somebody call his momma.

9:09 PM

Is White actually gonna be a steal? Or am I blinded by his story and our shared condition?

9:10 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well, I think he could be a solid pro

But I don’t know that he really has a position at this level

Maybe that doesn’t matter, but to me it would be worrisome

9:11 PM

me: Fair. Mavs dealing this pick to Cavs according to Chad Ford. Zeller is the pick. No clue what the price was though, so tough to evaluate.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: So apparently Zeller is getting traded to the Cavs?

Same pag

I love Zeller’s motor – he can run the floor better than any big I’ve seen in years

9:12 PM

That gives him a specific skill to build on

Not sure he is a pro-level athlete, but we will see

I still sort of like the pick

me: He should be a good fit in the open-floor with Kyrie….I would have thought Cleveland would want to go more D-oriented, but ESPn just corrected me and said he’s a good defender.

9:13 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Also, in that “The Zeller Three” picture, Tyler looks like he is 12 years old

me: 17 is much later than he was pegged to go. Cavs dealt 24+33+34 for the pick, so a steep price.

Mavs obviously wanting to keep their salary commitments low while filling multiple holes.

9:14 PM

Maybe a Euro-stash at 24, and then 2nd round picks are non-guaranteed deals…

9:15 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I like the move for both teams though

9:16 PM

If you can get a top-12 prospect for the 24-34-34, I think you do it; and conversely, Zeller would not have helped Dallas, so taking a few flier is a good move

9:17 PM

me: Agreed, and the ability to stash Fournier at 24 has to be enticing for them in their cap-clearing goals.

Houston’s 3rd pick…Lamb, White, and ___

BTW I just suggested a stash of Fournier for Dallas to Hollinger, and he said “Excellent call.”…so feel free to disagree.

9:18 PM

Houston take Terrence Jones, who I am a big fan of…Lamb, White, and Jones gives them a 2-3-4 in this draft, so if they can’t move the picks at least they have some semblance of a roster.

9:19 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: No, I like that idea in principal a great deal…now, the fact that Hollinger likes it…maybe I need to rethink things

My one-word reaction to the Jones pick is “…Sure”

9:20 PM

Why not – seems good to me

me: So, with the Rockets making these picks…does it seem more likely they keep the picks and try to deal Scola+Lowry+Martin for a “star”…or what?

It would let them keep a cap-conscious core around 1 or 2 big-money players. Although if the Magic take a Martin-Scola-Lowry deal, they’re crazy.

9:22 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well, I am still holding out hope that LAL can move Pau for JSmoove and then package Ron and Bynum for Dwight

So I am actively rooting against Dork Elvis

me: Damn. Now that’s a scenario.

Magic take Canadian Nicholson at 19…not huge upside, but definitely a rotation player. Big body, fundamentally sound.

9:23 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Physics!

me: Unbelievable…Physics AND Canadian!

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “Long-armed” Jay tells us

9:24 PM

I don’t know what his career will be like, but I am just happy for this guy – everything I’ve seen of him suggests he is a great guy

me: Hopefully he’s on board with Team Canada

9:25 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: This era of Canadian kids is primed to be something really special if they all commit to playing in the summer

Like, “legitimate threat to medal” special

Not in two years maybe, but in four year, for sure

me: Absolutely…you’d really hope that Nash as GM improves the level of buy-in from the young kids. Nicholson, Joseph(s), Tristan, Kabongo…

9:26 PM

Wiggins

9:27 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: The Wiggins hype is unbelievable

me: Hollinger and I can shove it…Nuggets swoop in to take Fournier at 20

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: If you buy it, our dude will be the #1 Overall in two years

9:28 PM

me: Obviously expectations should be tempered…I refer you to Ivan Cheriaev as Exhibit A. But it’s definitely reason for optimism, both for the national team and profile of Canadian ball.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Evan looks like he should be playing for Portugal futbal team, not for the Nuggets

9:29 PM

me: Love that he showed up without a Green Room invite, because “of course I’m gonna be there”

Celtics with two picks here….White and Nicholson were targets that are off the board. I’m predicting Sullinger and rolling the dice on PJ3

9:30 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I want to make a “French” joke here but I can’t think of anything that makes sense…dammit

Ugh, I don’t think I think taht

It might be the plan

9:31 PM

But I don’t know that “Big Baby with better rebounding and a worse back” is something to be excited about

me: They’d have to think their strong culture would help PJ3 reach his potential. And Sullinger…well, they need “help-now” bigs and there are few, if any, remaining. I’d say Quincy is a possibility, too.

9:32 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Looks like Sully is the pick here

Not sure what is up with Perry – his knee must be a serious problem

9:33 PM

me: Knee, motor, etc…maybe he’ll slip to 37.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “Knows how to play” should be a blog name

9:34 PM

me: Podcast name?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Not ours

me: Or have we officially switched heard from PTBNL to Knucklehead Factor

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: But – “as a Podcast name, it has great upside potential”

I think it is still PTBNL

me: Sullinger is the pick at #21, btw, though there were no doubts there.

9:35 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: With Knucklehead Factor as a recurring segment

Ala “Cmon Man” on Sunday Morning Countdown

me: I like PTBNL….Two Plus the Fowl and Knucklehead Factor as recurring segments haha

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Agreed

9:36 PM

We are half way home now every episode

me: We should discuss more in a new chat once we close off Round 1. Not sure if you saw my “pics and ideas” email.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: A talking duck and a Brussard reference = automatic downloads

me: Beauty.

9:37 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Andy was way to excited about that cut-in considering how useless his analysis was

me: “SULLLLLLLY” – all of Boston, per Trey Kerby. Great joke. Jimmy Fallon will be stealing that tonight.

9:38 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: The Town, Part 2 – Starring Sully and Brad-s

9:41 PM

Starring “Sully Sullinger”

me: So the Celtics get Sully and Melo….obviously solve their lack of bigs, but they can’t come out of this draft thrilled. Things definitely could have gone better for them.

9:46 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Yes, but they could have gone worse too

They need Ray to come back now though

Other than Bradley they don’t have anyone else on the wing

me: I really thought they should have swung for more upside with one of those picks. That’s the value of having two a lot of the time.

9:47 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Don’t underestimate Danny’s faith in himself being the smartest guy in the room, always

And feeling like he can get two steals instead of one guy

9:48 PM

me: ATL passes on an all-Teague backcourt for John Jenkins. Floor spacer to be their swing off the bench.

9:51 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: That is an interesting pick, definitely. I don’t really like the way their roster is built, but that isn’t anything new

9:52 PM

me: New GM, making a safe pic while he evaluates what he has….and then hoping to bury Joe Johnson somewhere.

9:53 PM

Mavs take Cunningham at #24, and the Twitters say they’re keeping him, not moving him. Quite the scorer and a good defender. Was listed to Raps at 36 by Ford as a big potential steal in last Mock.

9:55 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: He is a heck of an athlete – if they can turn him into a real 1 that would be very interesting

me: BTW there is essentially 0 risk in taking PJ3 at this point….this is now into “ridiculous upside potential” range late in the first, for a guy who earlier in the year was a top-10 projection.

Next few picks are Mem, Ind, Mia…not sure any would roll the dice. OKC maybe? Can’t see G-State passing at 30.

9:56 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: If I were Memphis I would take PJ3 and trade Rudy to Houston

If for no reason other than to get the hell away from Rudy’s contract

9:57 PM

me: Fair…but I doubt they will without an assurance they can move Gay.

I know OKC seemed set to take a ‘help-now’ player, doesn’t it seem a Presti thing to pounce on a talent slipping so far?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Right, but I would call Darryl right now and ask for his best offer

9:58 PM

me: True…Memphis could use the depth, too.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I think if PJ3 is healthy he could be the kind of athlete that can contribute to OKC – tremendous athlete

9:59 PM

me: There is going to be some talent available at #37 for Toronto.

10:00 PM

Wroten’s Mental Makeup goes to Memphis at 25

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Well played, sir. I enjoyed that

10:01 PM

“Can improve on his decision making and work ethic” is always a nice way of saying “Knucklehead”

#KnuckleheadFactor!

10:02 PM

me: Obvious tools for him, but his mental makeup was more heavily questioned than Drummond and PJ3 until he slipped so low in mocks and everyone kind of ignored it.

Ind, Mia, OKC, Chi, GS are our last 5 picks BTW

10:03 PM

4 of those teams will be taking the help-now type, while GS can swing for the fences.

PJ3, Quincy, Teague, Green, Moultrie, Barton all still out there

10:04 PM

Indy takes Plumlee from Duke…I’m sure you hate this pick. Big athlete, 0 production…low-upside but can probably bang out a career as a body.

10:05 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Plumlee is a “tremendous athlete?”

Really?

me: He tested off the charts at the Combine.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Maybe it just doesn’t translate to his actual game on the floor

But he never put the fear of God into me as an athlete

10:06 PM

me: Yeah, I don’t see him as anything more than a body…too many better players out there still for this pick.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: But according to Bilas, he overthinks things and should just let his athletic talent take over

So what do I know….don’t answer that

10:07 PM

me: Think the Heat jump on Draymond Green here, as had been long speculated before he moved up mocks? Instant contributor, high ball-IQ, no position but the Heat don’t care about your “positions”.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Great Heat highlight package guys

That was Amateur Hour 101

10:08 PM

I like what JVG is thinking here with moving Bosh to 5, Bron at 4 and PJ3 at the 3

10:09 PM

me: David Stern is hilarious. He IS Vince McMahon

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “NO CHANCE!”

#TheCorporateChampion

me: and at #27 the Heat take Arnett Moutlrie…gives them a big who can score a bit…seems a bit of a head case but has some talent for sure

10:10 PM

Annnd Chad Ford indicates the pick will be dealt to the 76ers

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Fran loved contributing to the “Wingspan” game

10:11 PM

me: Heat get a future 1st and pick #45 for Moultrie there by the way

Feels like the Heat could have used a contributor there.

10:12 PM

So OKC…gets interesting here. Mocks had them in on Fournier (gone) or Jeff Taylor (slipped), but like I said earlier, it’s a Presti move to capitalize on the slide and take PJ3 here.

10:13 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Yes, but the new tax is an issue if Miller isn’t going to retire and get off their books

me: They still hold their Amnesty though, do they not? I know it’s some cash savings but it’s only about a $1.2M cap hold at 26, I think…barely more than a minimum.

10:14 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Does Chris know that Maynor could just come back?

Or am I wrong there?

10:15 PM

There you go

I really like that pick

Amazing value at 28

me: Yes, he’s due back for training camp I believe. Luckiyl, Presti doesn’t listen to Chris and take PJ3, as we hypothesized about a half hour ago. Unbelievable value, even with injury concerns.

10:16 PM

Even with cap/luxury issues two years from now, Jones is basically on a near-minimum deal for three years now….and again, huge upside if their culture can coax it out of him.

10:17 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: All they need him to be in the 8th guy on that team – which I think is exactly what he could do

And if he somehow blows up? Maybe you feel better about moving Harden after next year and signing Sege to a long term deal

I am getting ahead of myself, of course, but just thinking here

10:18 PM

me: And you hope that sliding that far humbles him enough to turn the motor concerns around, as well.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Move Harden for pieces to get back some cap space and keep Ibaka

me: Bulls will probably take a shooter here at 29, by the way…nothing else makes sense, unless they want to grab a spot-starting PG to fill in while Rose recovers.

10:19 PM

I think it’s premature to discuss moving Harden, but that’s a condo for another day I think, since we didn’t do a post-Finals email chain.

10:20 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I’m not saying move Harden tomorrow

I just think it is something real to consider

Given how he did in the Finals and the very-real cap problem he might create

me: Absolutely, a sacrifice a small market club has to consider with the new punitive taxes. Just meant we could discuss further later.

10:21 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Granted, James Worthy had an awful Finals once and almost got dealt, and then all he did was go and become “Big Game James”, so who really knows

Understandable

Will leave it for another day

me: Yes, just early. Lukcily they’ve got another year to figure it out before a decision is necessary.

10:22 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: VERY interesting pick here

me: Bulls take Teague as a fill-in for D-Rose during his recovery. Strong value there, though the book was that he probably isn;t ready to contribute immediately.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Mini/poor man’s DRose

I don’t think he is half the player Rose is

10:23 PM

But his speed means they don’t have to completely change the way they play

me: Good point on the style of play.

10:24 PM

One more pick for the first round and our live blog/chat.

Warriors on the clock…I’ll predict Quincy goes here.

10:25 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: How about Greene? Or even Ezeli?

10:26 PM

Or Lamb?

me: Green doesn’t seem like a GS pick. Too savvy.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Haha, “That seems like it makes too much sense for GSW”, basically

10:27 PM

me: At #30 the Warriors round out the 1st round with Festus Ezeli…not sure I care at this point, mostly because it’s the Warriors.

“I’d like to thank all of you for your wonderful enthusiasm” – Stern to Prudential Center

Great way to end it….then Adam Silver gets a massive cheer haha

“NO CHAAAAAANCE”

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: “YOU’RRRRRRE FIRRRRREED”

10:28 PM

The only way that would have been better is if Stern left with Vince’s swagger-walk

10:29 PM

me: So quickly before we shut it down, the Raptors pick in 7 spots with some of the following still on the board: Quincy, Draymond, Barton, TyshawnTaylor, Doron Lamb, Jae Crowder, Scott Machado….who’s your pick?

10:30 PM

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: If Lamb is there, why not. Especially if they Amnesty Jose and need some more guards

10:31 PM

me: I’m going with Quincy for the upside, followed by Green and then Machado.

10:32 PM

Shall we cut it off here and touch base briefly for thoughts on #37 and #56, then I’ll tidy up and post tomorrow?

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: I am good to break here

As pleasure, as always

me: Had a blast man, thanks for doing it with me. Cheers.

trevor.smith.tds@gmail.com: Cheers bud.

After Oklahoma City vanquished the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night, Trev and I got emailing to show Simmons and Gladwell how it’s done. We hit a delay late on Thursday, but it was for the best as it gave us the chance to discuss LeBron’s magnificent series-saving Game 6 against the Celtics as well. Buckle in for 6000 words.

Trev Smith: Captain Murphy – we just saw a sea change in the Association last night. The Thunder have officially arrived as we all propheicized they eventually would. Staring at the ruins they left the Spurs in over the last four game, it’s difficult NOT to want to get ahead of ourselves and say this team will own their conference for the next decade. So, while we both have had a well-documented (For example, see here, here, and here) appreciation for Mr. Durant since Jump Street, I know that your repping for him has been more fierce than my own, so I turn the floor over to you to kick off this coronation party.

Blake Murphy: Ahh, but I can’t, my friend. There is no such coronation ceremony to be had, at least for another two weeks or so. We should have learned from the Heat last year that merely the appearance of a championship and/or dynasty is not a guarantee of one to come; the Heat proclaimed multiple championships, and everyone wrote off the Mavericks in the Finals, but here we are two years into their run and they are but a single loss from not even making the Finals, let alone raising a banner. So, as unbelievable as that series was (and it was, in all honesty, the best I can remember as an even semi-coherent pseudo-adult viewer in terms of pure quality of basketball), I’m hesitant to award my Thunder, and specifically my boy KD, anything more than a congratulations and a sincere “thank you.” There are anywhere from 4 to 7 more games to play before the real “party” can get started.

With that said, allow me just two sentences of KD-love-fest fan-boyism…

1) With his defense improving leaps and bounds this year (specifically in terms of IQ, team-D, rotations, etc, though not necessarily man coverage), KD is bordering very close on stealing the crown as The Best Player in the NBA – LBJ may maintain the edge due to his all-world defense, but the gap is narrowing if not gone.

2) Short of James Harden deciding he needs to be The Man, something by all accounts it seems isn’t really in his makeup based on recent press, it’s difficult to envision a Western Conference that isn’t dominated by these Thunder for the next half decade.

So, I ask you, first if I’ve been too skeptical and hesitant in my initial reply, and second if I’ve been too optimistic and homerish in my follow up points?

Trev: Well, your initial reply is rather prudent and appropriately cautious – it echoes of NHLers who refuse to touch the Conference Championship trophy for fear of jinxing themselves from eventually hoisting Lord Stanley’s pride and joy. Something about not counting your chickens I think. And it is a valid point: this was not the NBA Finals, and there is no guarantee that the rest that awaits them won’t bring a bit of rust, or that OKC’s youth and inexperience on the grandest stage won’t reveal itself when the lights shine brightest…(A-Sir-Mix-A-Lot-Approved-Sized)…BUT we have any valid reason to think that will be the case?

Your point about how impressive Miami looked in vanquishing the Bulls last season only to then falter is well taken, except to me there is a false equivalence. Simply put, those Bulls were not in the same class as these Spurs. Yes, there were times last spring where Rose looked like he was playing with cheat codes, but on the whole, his team was vastly inferior to the San Antonio roster that the Thunder just put away. Consider that the Spurs had gone 50 days without a loss before the Thunder took 4 in 7 days. They had just got through punking the Clippers and Jazz, and at times in the first two games of the series were doing the same to OKC. This was a squad we were all ready to crown as hands-down the best team in the world just a week ago. By comparison, the Bulls had struggled at times in a closer-than-you-remember series against the Pacers, and dropped two games to an over-their-heads Atlanta team. So Miami besting them in 5 shouldn’t have resonated as much as it did, especially since the manner in which they did it – LeBron and Wade hitting their threes at an insane clip – was in no way going to be sustainable or consistent given their personal histories.

What I’m saying is that team “Good Job, Good Effort” was never the unstoppable force some wanted to proclaim they were last spring, and instead benefitted from the Bulls having to rely so heavily on Rose to close out games. Maybe the more important distinction between Miami-2011 and OKC-2012 is the manner in which they slayed their Conference rival. I more than anyone like to point to the “It’s not about How, it’s How Many”, but there is something to be said about the way the Thunder responded to every Spurs run, and the fact that we saw them mature and evolve before our eyes as the series progressed. Miami-2011 made no such transformation – they did not grow and mature as a team, they just hit their outside shots better than they previously had. This became painfully obvious with how they responded when Dallas fought back in Game 2 – they revealed themselves to be the shrinking violets we had always expected. By contrast, when the Spurs punched them in the mouth, the Thunder responded by playing better and better – whenever faced with adversity, or a challenge to their collective momentum, OKC straightened up and fought back. Wednesday’s 15 point halftime deficit was the latest example – a lesser team might have folded up shop and lived to fight another day, but instead they met the task head on and stole the game and the series, and there was nothing the Spurs could do about it.

That is what impressed me most, and why I am ready to bestow them with a title two weeks early – they’ve proven that they will adjust to whatever you throw at them, they will persevere through whatever you throw at them, and then their talent will overwhelm you. It’s that evolution of collective will that wasn’t there last year against Dallas, and it’s the last step they needed to take to ascend to where we all hoped they’d get to. I admit I never thought they’d get there this quickly, but I see nothing to suggest this is a temporary development – they’ve cracked the code now, and what comes next should be a prolonged run of (at least) Finals appearances to rival those of the Showtime Lakers.

As for your KD (Almost >) LeBron argument, I think it all depends on what we really mean when we talk about who is “The Best Player Alive.” On the surface that title seems like it is straight-forward – who is the best basketball player in the world today? But the difficulty with that distinction is whether you equate being the greatest talent or having the most skill with being the best actual player. Because I don’t, and for that reason I already view KD as being at least as good as, if not better than, LeBron.

That sort of sounds ridiculous, I know. LeBron’s physical gifts are unrivaled in the history of the game; you wouldn’t have to work hard to convince me he is an android, designed to be the perfect athletic specimen for playing the sport of basketball. While there is no way to prove this definitively, it’s my view that LBJ’s natural physical gifts are the greatest the league has ever seen – greater than Wilt because of his coordination, greater than Jordan because of his size and strength. Package that with his Basketball IQ and skill-set – which he deserves credit for having worked at tirelessly to improve – and you have the most talented player ever. The trouble is that skills and talent aren’t all that make a player great, and it’s the intangibles where he comes up wanting.

And this isn’t just about being ‘clutch’ in the final few minutes of a few games. That is a boring narrative, even if it’s becoming a well-founded one. This is about not having “It” – that thing that allows truly special players to elevate when the moment asks it from them, and to impact the game in ways the boxscore doesn’t reveal. Statistically speaking, LeBron has been incredible this series, and has been the entire playoffs. There is no doubting or questioning his statistical or advanced-metric dominance. But I’ve watched all those games, and save for his truly amazing Game 4 against Indy, he hasn’t been there in the moments that mattered most – which do not always come at the end of games. Sometimes they come with 8 minutes to play, or even in the 3rd Quarter, when you need to stop a run, or when your teammates need you to carry them on your back. Durant has a sense for those times and responds. As does Kobe, and for that matter Wade. LeBron just doesn’t – he is consistently great in the box score, but small in the breaks of the game that mean the most. It’s for that reason I would take Durant over him if I were starting a franchise – there is just too much “Karl Malone” in LBJ for me to trust him to carry me to a title. Not so with KD.

(GOOD LORD – what happened there? I blacked out and just started writing ‘Ulysses’ I think. Please response before I break off another 2000 words of tangent-filled nonsense.)

Blake: Wow, that’s weighty…I feel like I’m now just a commenter responding to an article you wrote. Allow me quickly to clear up that I was by no means comparing OKC12 to MIA11 in terms of actual accomplishments or team dynamic, moreso just the comparative narratives they’ve been subjected to immediately after their Conference Championships. I agree 100% that what this Thunder team accomplished is light-years beyond the Heat beating Rose & Co last spring, I merely wanted to illustrate that handing out titles before they are won is a risky endeavor.

In terms of the Thunder’s victory against the Spurs, you hit several nails on their collective heads – this was the best team in the league, bar none, for AT LEAST the last two months of the NBA season, and after Game 2 I remember reading multiple pieces of prose about where a 16-0 playoff run would rank this Spurs team (and their dynasty) among the all-time greats. They also have the best coach in the NBA, so it would have been difficult to envision any team rallying off four straight victories without Pop and the Spurs being able to make the necessary adjustments. The fact that Oklahoma City was able to run their wide pin-down play so often and with such success, in multiple games, varying their looks off of this base play enough to get every single player on the team involved at different times, without leaving the Spurs any suitable “out” defensively, was astonishing. It’s a single example, yes, but the Thunder continued to make similar adjustments on both ends, making their identity fluid throughout. And in that light, it can’t be understated that the Thunder were generally thought to have a weakness behind the bench, but Scotty Brooks did his fair share of growing up in this series as well. One final note on the Thunder “growing up” before we turn off any remaining readers with our trading of monologues in place of a dialogue – the fact that OKC went from the league’s most turnover-prone team to winning the ball-protection battle against a smart, savvy, and precise Spurs team is the most fitting representative example I can think of from this series to exemplify their growth – they took their single greatest weakness as a team and made it a strength against a team who should have dominated them in that regard.

On to KD vs. LeBron…okay, I admit it. I held back because I thought it a bit too homerish to proclaim KD The Man, but your points are valid. LeBron is the most talented, but Durant is the best basketball player. While some scoff at intangibles and hang every argument on new-wave statistics, it can’t be ignored. There’s a reason Bill Russell won 11 titles and Wilt won two, just like there’s a reason LeBron doesn’t have one yet and probably won’t after this year is through. If people don’t believe in this appreciable gap between basketball talent and basketball capacity, take a look at current mock drafts and scouting reports. Teams are going nuts for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist despite the fact that in pure ‘talent’ terms he’s a late-lottery pick (he’s not a great shooter and probably can’t create his own shot yet), but he might go as high as 2nd overall because everything about him screams winner. He’s exactly the type of guy, like Durant, that could figure out and manage the touchy dynamic with an alpha-craving #2 like Russel Westbrook, something Durant has done that’s been integral to the Thunder’s success (rememeber that at this time last year, everyone was claiming KD/Russel was like Avon/Stringer and one had to go). And I’ll note that I’m not advocating MKG as Durant’s eventual equal, not even close, but I am certainly advocating him as a top-3 pick in the draft.

I’m getting lengthy here too now….I’ll pass it back, and ask for you to touch on OKC’s medium-term (3-5yrs) prospects after you respond.

—End of Thursday transmission—

Blake: Well…that might change things. What a showing, as between emails LeBron threw down one of the all-time great performances, pouring in 45-15-5 on just 26 field goal attempts (19/26, 2/4 3FG, 5/9FT). There can simply be no complaints about a game like this, but does it serve the two of us notice of just how easily James could switch from “most talented player” to “best player” if he got the mental side together, or is ir simply a frustrating reminder of what could/should be a regular thing for him?

I’ll allow you some time to settle in and continue with our OKC chat from yesterday afternoon before we touch on Mia/Bos, with a game 7 looming.

Trev: All that was missing last night was Bron sprinting up to the media table, with Worldwide Wes draping off his shoulders, screaming “EAT YOUR WORDS! I’M A BAD MAN! I MUST BE THE GREATEST!”

And yet, as remarkable as his performance was – and let it be said that that first half was truly as impressive as any stretch of basketball I’ve ever seen – I’m not convinced enough to throw aside my previous assertion that LBJ might have a short circuit somewhere that prevents him from ever truly realizing his frighteningly awesome potential when it comes to big moments. Yesterday I joked that he had too much Karl Malone in him for my liking, but I will go a step further and suggest maybe it’s a bit too much Vince Carter.

No, not that he quits on his team, or sulks. By every account he is a terrific teammate, and he generally does not give off any air of feeling sorry for himself, despite the hate. What I mean though by the Vince comparison is that he desperately needs to be liked. To be loved, and appreciated, and to have friends. And I’m not sure that you can have that pathological need to be the good guy and to make everyone love you and still be the assassin that you need to be. Being a Heel never suited LeBron – last year at the height of the Heat Hate, his Hollywood Hogan NWO act was obviously awkward and unnatural. He is a Face, through and through, and needs to be around friends. That is why he teamed up with Wade and Bosh, it’s why he references his days at SVSM in high school with his boys as the best time in his life, and its why he has an entourage that would make Vinny Chase proud. And while there is nothing inherently wrong with wanting to be seen as the good guy, it’s not how closers in the NBA work. They are assassins, and even if they are nice guys off the floor, they have no problem making a few enemies if it wins them games. KG does that; Wade does; so does Rondo. Same with Kobe, and seemingly now Durant. That wasn’t always true, I admit. Last spring KD deferred to Russ way too much and it cost him. But this year he seems to have come around to the idea that OKC will go exactly as far as he will take them, and he is owning that more. Maybe last night we saw LeBron have the same epiphany, and just decide that if he is going to undeservedly take the blame for any collapse, that he’d go out on his own terms.

Maybe the Vince comparison isn’t the best I can do. Maybe there is another more obviously one we just don’t want to acknowledge. Maybe LeBron is just like Shaq.

Yes, Shaq ended up with 4 rings, but not for lack of trying to never evolve into the killer he needed to be. Like Bron, he wore the mask of being a Heel poorly, and seemingly had a pathological need to be loved, and to never have to take responsibility or accountability when things did not turn out as planned. Being an all-time great player doesn’t have to mean you are also a prick, but it certainly seems like most of the guys we put in the pantheon – Jordan, Kobe, Russell, Bird, West – were singularly obsessive competitors, who’d bark at – or even punch – a teammate in practice if he thought it would motivate, even if only by fear.

Last night proved LeBron isn’t scared of big moments, and it was a joy to watch him work. As a fan of the game, it was a thrill to see him respond with the game we all know him to be capable of: that is, a game like no one else on the planet could deliver. He was special last night, no question. So I don’t think fear or pressure necessarily makes him turtle in other big moments. And winning clearly matters to him. It is just a question of how much, maybe. After the game he told Dorris Burke that he wouldn’t have had any regrets if they had lost last night and that he just wanted to have fun and play hard and give his team a chance. A chance. That is very enlightened, understanding that things are beyond his control and he can only be responsible for his response to what happens, not control his fate. But he is a master of the universe. A basketball god. He cannot be okay with giving himself just ‘a chance to win’. Good Job, Good Effort kid might have perfectly captured his state of mind before Thursday. And maybe now the switch has gone off, and he is going to shift into being the killer he needs to be for the next week or two in order to carry this fading group around him. I hope so, even though I am not personally a fan. I hope so because it is important for the game that he does, and selfishly because I want to see what that level of basketball excellence would look like.

How did you respond to last night? Did it change your mind about him completely? At all? Can it change back if he comes out flat on Saturday night? And where the hell was Dwyane Wade in all of this?

(Oh, and our OKC thread in not forgotten – I will try to weave my thoughts on their future into my next reply, but I thought it best to focus on The King for now.)

Blake: Last night was something truly special. I liked Bill Barnwell’s take on it today that it should really be considered a very ‘clutch’ performance, only because it’s Game 6 of a 7-game semi-final series, it will be forgotten from the collective subconscious at the next moment of perceived failure on Bron’s part. It was also a pretty crazy trip reading some of the articles today outlining his previous playoff heroics, especially the fact that this was only his ninth best playoff game according to the Game Score metric. Where were all of these articles when the world was crumbling around LBJ just 48 hours ago and it was a fact that he wasn’t clutch? Has LeBron crossed a line from being Kobe-level polarizing to The King of Cognitive Dissonance? How do the haters take that game and adequately reload their ammunition for what they will argue is an impending Game 7 failure?

These are a lot of hypothetical questions, and I stress hypothetical because I don’t want you to return fire with The Book of Basketball II – Trev Smith Edition (I kid), but really, it’s difficult to digest that game and not immediately move to “okay, now what’s next?” I feel terrible that after signing off last night, jubilant and in amazement with his performance, I awoke not in subdued or appreciative reflection, but in rabid curiosity for what tomorrow night will hold. I could insert commentary here on where our social media-driven world has taken us as fans, to the ultimate peak of ‘ what have you done for me lately,’ but I’m trying to assure myself even if he provides a 25-10-8 in a loss on Saturday that I’ll still appreciate a Game 6 performance that instantly enters the Pantheon.

I think the Shaq comparison is more appropriate than the Vince one, specifically because like Bron, Shaq had physical, god-given tools that no player could possibly work to match, so the lack of killer instinct and assasin’s mentality was even more frustrating in their cases. Yes, Vince was an incredible athlete and didn’t live up to his potential, but there have been a dozen players just like him, but LeBron and Shaq are fairly similar and solitary in this regard. And like Shaq, it’s possible LeBron gets a couple of rings without ever embracing the assassin’s role, but I remain hopeful that he “figures it out.” No, last night probably wasn’t any sort of epiphany, and his stoic expressions and intentional lack of emotion made the night seem unorganic and, therefore, probably not something that will be sustained. But the fact that he flipped the switch for one night (again, the ninth best night of his playoff resume) when his back was truly against the wall can’t be considered as anything but a step in the right direction.

Trev: Just because it is fun to go Pacino and play Devil’s Advocate, if you were a Miami fan, wouldn’t it concern you that LeBron went historically HAM, and yet in the 3rd Quarter you were only up 8 DESPITE also seeing Pierce go 4-18, KG go 6-14, Rondo having an uncharacteristic 7 TOs, and Boston as a squad going 1-14 (7%!!!) from three?

Doesn’t that suggest that you need just about everything to go right in order to win these games because of how poorly constructed the rest of your roster is? Or are those just the breaks in the game and any team needs to have some luck in order to advance at this point?

And in the name of “Immediate Gratification and All Things Instant”…what is next? What do you see coming down the pipe for us Saturday?

#CantStopWontStop

Blake: Oh yeah, Heat fans have to be pretty shook by the fact that, until late, this all-time performance had them just narrowly ahead. Wade’s disappearing act, Bosh’s playing at less than 100%, and the bizarre deserves-its-own-large-column mismanaging of roster spots 4-12 are all such that Game 7 couldn’t be further from a certainty. Even if LeBron plays this good again, which is hard to ask of him, the Celtics regression to something more resembling their normal level (albeit offensively this is still a below-average squad) would make this a tight game.

The Celtics will almost definitely play better come Saturday night, and you’d think if this really is the Last Hurrah for The Big Three (green version), you’ll see a balls-to-the-wall effort from KG, The Truth, and even Rondo, who may see this as his last window at a ring for the next while. I’d include Ray-Ray, but it’s pretty clear at this point that his ankles need some serious work, which is a shame. He could still catch fire from downtown and make a difference, because nobody does that quite like him, but it seems more likely the others carry the burden. We know Rondo can get to another gear with the best of them, while Pierce’s ability to do so at this stage in the game is somewhat less obvious. KG, of course, will do everything he possibly can to win, whether it’s game 27 of the regular season or game 7 of the Conference Finals.

I’m going to roll the dice (and I actually can’t believe I consider this a dice roll at this point) and give the Heat the nod. LeBron might not play at quite this level, but his ‘normal’ is somewhere in that ballpark anyway, and you’d think Wade and Bosh will contribute at least a bit more. And the Celtics will play better, but as bad as they were in Game 6, they’re also not as good as they were (offensively, anyway) in Games 3-5.

Your thoughts?

By the way, my girlfriend’s boss is having a stag & doe tomorrow night, rendering me unable to watch the game in real time. What are the odds of me being able to avoid the outcome until midnight or so? And is it unreasonable to give myself food poisoning tomorrow afternoon (raw chicken?) to make myself bed-ridden and allow for real-time viewing?

Trev: First, let’s address the domestic question – my advice is that you can avoid the game, if you go to obnoxious lengths in order to do so. I was able to do this last night – the Mrs. and I went for dinner and to see “Moonrise Kingdom,” and by the time I got home it was almost 1am. Yet I was able to watch the game via PVR when I did get home, and watched it in its entirety by 2:45. The secret? Turn off your phone, and leave it at home. I say turn it off because leaving it at home isn’t enough – you will get back after the stag and doe and instinctively check it, at which point one of Cambridge’s finest lads will ruin it by having messaged you “CAN YOU BELIEVE X JUST HAPPENED!” or the like. From there you will need to publicly announce to everyone you meet at the stag that you are trying to avoid the score – say this immediately so they don’t casually lead with it to avoid awkward small talk. The food poisoning isn’t a sound plan, since if its real you will be vomiting for the better part of the evening and away from the broadcast as it is.

“We will be right back with more Domesticated Problems after this…” #TheMoreYouKnow

My view of what lies ahead Saturday is something along the lines of Game 7 of the Kings-Lakers series from 2002, though I don’t expect an OT thriller necessarily, but a tense, back-and-forth game that serves as a nice nightcap to one of the more dramatic and theme-heavy series we’ve seen in the last decade plus. Yes, the WCF this year had better overall basketball, but from a theatre standpoint nothing compares to Boston-Miami.

If you’ll recall from that 2002 LAL-SAC game, there were 16 ties, and 19 lead changes, and even though neither team executed with singular brilliance, there were some very solid individual performances in the face of elimination and the possible end of a championship reign. In that game, the Kings were undone by awful foul shooting – 16 for 30 – and a horrible 2-20 clip from distance, as well as an over-reliance on Bibby to carry them and win the day himself. Meanwhile Shaq threw up 35 and Kobe had 30, and every Laker starter was in double figures.

You might think the parallel draws nicely to see Bron-Dwyane as the Shaq-Kobe combo in this scenario, and the horrible long-range shooting of Boston in Game 6 as a sign they too could be undone in just this manner, but I am actually going to flip the script and say that I expect Miami to fall closer in line with that Kings team. That Sacramento team was significantly better man-for-man than LA. Though Shaq and Kobe were the best players on the floor, Cow Town probably had the 3rd through 9th best players on their side. Yet when the lights were on and it came down to a single game, I’m not sure they really believed they could beat the Lakers. That is where I see the Heat – knowing they are better, but somehow not really trusting that fact, while Boston would assume the role of the Lakers by not being impressed with themselves or their opponent in that spot, and have complete trust they would prevail when the shakedown came.

In the scenario I’ve imagined in my head, LeBron gives Miami a punching chance early, and ends up with something like 27, 11, and 5, but defers somewhat in the fourth to Wade, who is simply too beat up and tired at this point to throw the entire team on his back. I’d guess Wade get to 32 points, but on 25-ish shots, and that the Celtics make him earn it, because the Haslems, Millers, and Battiers of the world are going to lay an egg and provide no breathing room.

What I’m saying to you I guess is that, if I were a betting man, I’d say Boston by 5.

Now, to close this out and bring it all full circle– does Saturday’s result even matter given what we both think about where OKC is at? Does it mean anything different if it’s Miami and not Boston? And exactly how much would we all drive the LeBron-versus-The-Anti-LeBron narrative into the ground if it came to pass?

Blake: The narrative is going to be unbearable if it’s OKC/Miami, but it’ll at least be the rare and obvious good-vs-evil storyline that the casual fan always wants but usually has to be shoehorned to be appropriate.

But no, I don’t think it matters. As you said, Wade is tired at this point, and LeBron can’t do it all himself, considering he might not even be the best player in the series. The Heat were built so that they should always have the 1st, 2nd, and 4th best player in any series, but the actual truth might be that they have the 2nd, 5th, and 6th best player, as well as a far weaker #4-10 than their opponent (and no, Harden isn’t better than Wade, but he’s played it of late, so it’s entirely possible it continues for a series, especially with Thabo working on Wade while Harden is covered by Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole or someone of that ilk).

If it’s the Celtics, I think the Thunder are just better, through and through. I have a tonne of respect for the Celtics, but nobody would deny the element of luck it’s taken them to get even this far. They’d be heavy underdogs against the Thunder and the series wouldn’t go longer than 5. The Heat would take it 6 as LeBron steals a game and the Thunder have one final “learning” experience in another. But no, I think I’d pick the Thunder in any case.

Your thoughts? The Thunder have there hands on the Larry O’Brien, save for them dropping it?

Trev: I agree with everything you just laid out. When the WFC began, my response to anyone who asked who I thought would win was OKC, and I explained my rationale that position by position they were either equal-to-or-better-than SAS at every spot on the floor, and that the only notable advantage by position either team had was Durant-versus-Any SF on San Antonio. That same logic would apply regardless of who wins Saturday.

Blake interjection: And a coaching advantage.

Trev continued: If it’s Boston, they will be equal at the 1 (Rondo v. Russ is a wash), better at the 2 (Harden > The Ghost of Jesus Shuttlesworth), better at the 3 (Durant > PP), and probably a wash at the 4-5 (I’d wager that Ibaka+Perk is more or less the same as KG+Bass at this point, with it being a coin toss on which pair is worth more on any one night). From there the Not-Sonics’ depth is lightyears ahead of Boston’s, and they would be able to run on them all day, something Miami secretly isn’t good at exposing because even with Bron and Wade they aren’t athletic enough anywhere else on the roster to consistently play breakneck transition offense.

If Miami should win the day this weekend, the same rules apply: OKC wins the individual matchup at the 1, 4, and 5 (give me a healthy Ibaka over a gimpy Bosh all day), and I’d call the 2 and 3 both a wash (Harden+KD = Banged Up Wade+James). And that is before considering just how Streets Ahead (shout out to Dan Harmon, #SixSeasonsAndAMovie) Oklahoma’s depth would be compared to the Super Friends’. James and Wade would have to each play around 44-45 minutes a night just to stay with the Thunder, and by Games 6 or 7, and following a hellish season and schedule, I just don’t see how they’d have enough gas left for that.

As for how much fun this matchup would be, I will lean on something my brother sent in a back-and-forth this morning – “There is so much potential for passing the torch stories, the parallels of LBJ and KD but also the obvious differences. AND of course a spread in Men’s Vogue featuring Wade and Westbrook in a “Who Wore it Best.” The Grantland callout of OKCWGKTA was great. I can’t get home fast enough to see this happen.”

Looking forward even further though, my expectation is that unless LA can somehow acquire Deron and Dwight (say, Pau and picks for Williams in a sign-and-trade, and Bynum for Dwight more or less straight up with some loose change thrown in) there is no one out West – not the Clippers, not the Grizz, and not another-year-older San Antonio – who will stand in the way of the Thunder owning their conference for the next 5 years. Other people a lot smarter than you or I have pointing out that this feels a lot like the ’91 Bulls’ run, where we weren’t completely convinced they were ready yet, but then all of a sudden you look up and they are up there with Dictator Stern taking their bows.

But then again, what do any of us really know. That is part of the fun. And that is what is going to make Saturday night so special.

Blake: I don’t want to put any sort of long-term time frame on their reign in the West, just because things can change rather quickly. Still, you’re right that none of the primary suspects look particularly strong in the near-term, so it’s going to take a really focused and well-executed effort, even from the perenially-contending Spurs, to dethrone the Thunder now that the West is theirs.

Well I think that might just about wrap it up. With any luck, I’ll talk to you Sunday morning for general Game 7 debriefing, though you’ll be my first text if I get sucked in to checking real-time updates tomorrow night.

It shouldn’t be news at this point that baseball is being dominated by an East Coast bias. Of course, I’m not referring to the generally maligned East Coast Bias of media reporting, whereby West Coast coverage falls by the wayside due to time zone differences. No, the Eastern Bias I’m referring to here is the odd but not unfamiliar dominance of Major League Baseball’s two eastern divisions, the NL East and AL East.

If you’ve been following baseball even passively for any amount of time, you no doubt understand the American League East to be a battleground of the utmost talent, the most competitive division in sports, buoyed by the big-spending Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees and the “Extra 2%” ultra-managed Tampa Bay Rays. The Toronto Blue Jays have hung around forever as the 3rd- or 4th-string, seemingly content to finish around .500 and hang their hats on the “if we only played in the Central…” excuse. As for the Orioles, well, their best days are far in the rearview mirror.

Alas, this year has been different – it’s not that the AL East isn’t dominant, it’s that all five teams are great rather than the usual two or three juggernauts plus also-rans. The AL East currently has a winning percentage of 54.2%, even higher than last year’s 52.9%, but even this is misleading as it ignores the fact that these teams all play 44.4% of their games against each other. Basically, the division has 44.4% of games guaranteed to produce a cumulative outcome of .500, since each inter-AL East game must have a winner and a loser. Thus, the dominance in Win% means that last year, those extra wins above .500 were generated in just 55.6% of the schedule. To clarify, that means AL East teams won 55.2% of the time last year against non-AL East teams. This year what it means is that these five dominant AL East teams have won just 50% of their games against each other (obviously), but an astonishing 58.1% against non-divisional opponents.

But like I said, other than the fact that contributions are coming from all five teams rather than “just” three or four, this is old hat for the AL East. This year, however, the National League East has gotten in on the action as well, sporting a nearly identical win-loss record to its AL counterpart.

Last year, the NL East won an impressive 51.9% of its games, but this figure was misleading since the Phillies went 42 games over .500 and the division was home to three sub-.500 teams. This year, though, the division is winning at a 54.2% clip and it’s only the Phillies that are under .500, and by just three games at that. Like the AL East, the NL East can only go .500 against itself, so this dominance comes exclusively from games against opposing divisions, and they’ve produced a 57% win rate against non-divisional opponents in 2012 (this is slightly lower than the AL East because the NL East has played a smaller proportion of inter-divisional games so far).

So, the East divisions are winning a lot. Are people buying in, though, or is it a fluke? Well, Grantland’s Jonah Keri currently has the East teams ranked 2-3-4-5-9-10-11-12-14-18 in his latest version of The 30, his weekly power rankings segment. ESPN Power Rankings has them ranked 3-5-7-8-9-10-12-15-16-18, essentially agreeing on the distribution and confirming there are no bottom-10 teams to be found. One additional place to look is ESPN’s RPI rankings, a relatively basic attempt at ranking teams based on opponent quality – the formula simply takes 25% of a team’s winning percentage, 50% of their opponent’s winning percentage, and 25% of the opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage. This, in theory, should show a team’s success once controlled for the quality of competition, though it’s obviously not perfect. If we employ this metric, the teams rank 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-11-13-20, so the RPI would suggest that power rankings are actually under-estimating the quality of these teams due to the relative schedule strength they face by constantly having to beat up on each other.

So, the AL and NL East are dominant divisions. It’s taken me 650 words to get there, but you could have found this out by watching a few ball games or looking at the standings yourself. If you think the records are a bit fluky, I’ll direct your attention to the run differentials of the teams (generally a better predictor of future success than current won-loss record), of which six teams have a large positive figure, two have a small negative figure, and two more have moderate negative figures. As a clarification, Expected W-L% projects win rate based on run differential, and this metric has the teams ranked 4-5-7-8-9-12-14-16-18-19, and again, this is without controlling for opponent quality, since it’s strictly a +/- score. So yeah, these divisions are great.

But which one is better? The NL is generally considered weaker, but since both leagues will end up with a .500 record against themselves, Interleague Play is a small sample we can use to try and determine which side has the more difficult path to these ridiculous win rates. The AL has had a winning record against the NL for the past eight seasons, not including a 24-18 record so far this year, so it can be pretty reasonably suggested that the American League is the stronger of the two. It would follow, then, that given similar win totals and run differentials, the AL East is stronger than the NL East, too.

But luckily for us, we don’t have to make that assumption, if we’re willing to accept a 66-game sample as an indicator for the time being.

Starting tonight, the AL East and NL East begin doing battle a great deal over the next two weeks, as Interleague Play rolls out in full force. For five straight series, teams will play opponents from the opposite league (except for two NL teams at a time, since there are 16 NL and only 14 AL squads), and this year the East divisions match up against each other with great regularity. The chart below shows the current records of each division, as well as their Interleague slate for the next five series. The NL East hosts 33 games against the AL East, while the AL East hosts 33 games against the NL East. Obviously, the schedule won’t work out perfectly with each team playing each other both home and away to neutralize imbalances, but a 66-game sample should give us a rough idea of how these two divisions stack up against each other.

Interestingly enough, the weakest team in either division by record, the Phillies, has the easiest slate, only playing three series against the AL East instead of four or five like its divisional counterparts. Similarly, the Mets, Orioles, and Jays get a single-series reprieve against the Reds, Pirates, and Brewers, respectively (not that these are particularly bad teams). Regardless, none of these teams have what you would call an easy couple of weeks.

Interleague Play is always fun just for a different look at baseball and the intricacies of teams playing under slightly different sets of rules in rarely witnessed match-ups. For Jays fans, the chance to see Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper is enticing, though you miss your chance at a Roy Halladay sighting this year due to his current injury. Yankees and Mets fans get to wage war (twice), Washington and Baltimore get to engage in their version of a subway series, the Beltway Series, and the Marlins get to welcome two big-name teams to their new ballpark in Boston and cross-state rival Tampa Bay.

There’s something positive for every team here….except, of course, for the difficulty of the schedule. But which side has it worse? We’ll have a better idea in two weeks…in 22 series…in 66 games.