With a 2.61ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, nobody is going to be complaining about Henderson Alvarez’ results so far this season.
Alvarez, the Blue Jays’ second-year number three starter, is off to a great start based on traditional baseball card numbers, also sporting a 3-2 record and averaging just shy of 7 innings per start. He’s been of great value to a rotation that has seen ups-and-downs from the new-look Brandon Morrow, rookie Drew Hutchison, and the rebounding Kyle Drabek. Alvarez has lasted at least six innings in every outing and has allowed more than three runs just once, providing a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation.
With all of that said, there is legitimate cause for concern. Although Alvarez passes the eye test on the mound except for the occasional meatball, some of his peripheral stats simply can’t be maintained. Alvarez sports a 5.28 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP (which normalizes home run rate), indicating he’s due for some regression in a pretty serious way. While pitchers can show an ability to outperform their fielding-independent numbers, Alvarez has by far the biggest gap between ERA and FIP in the entire Major Leagues. In fact, Jeremy Hellickson (someone who appears to be demonstrating a skill in beating the peripherally-suggested measures) is the only other pitcher with an FIP-ERA gap of greater than 2. Simply put, while Alvarez’ ERA has graded out as 32% better than league average, his FIP actually sees him as 28% worse (xFIP shows him as 14% worse).
So where do the discrpancies lie, and can Alvarez maintain this to some degree? It doesn’t look positive.
More after the jump!